{"id":458,"date":"2022-12-17T08:58:41","date_gmt":"2022-12-17T16:58:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/?p=458"},"modified":"2022-12-18T15:09:54","modified_gmt":"2022-12-18T23:09:54","slug":"climate-change-diagnosis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/2022\/12\/climate-change-diagnosis\/","title":{"rendered":"Climate Change Diagnosis"},"content":{"rendered":"

Before taking MACAL CALS500<\/a> Climate Science, Impacts, and Services, I had the notion that the 2015 Paris target of \u201climiting global average temperature increase to well below 2\u00b0C above preindustrial levels\u201d (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161) would mean the world would be a different but still somewhat safe place. Striving for 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels would be even better. Diving into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/a> (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I<\/a> (WGI), it is evident that allowing the global temperature to rise higher than 1.5\u00b0C above preindustrial levels will push the planetary systems to inhospitable places for many of the living beings that rely on a functioning biosphere<\/a>, including humans. Unfortunately, modern humans’ extractive, consumptive lifestyle has not only threatened the climate system but has pushed biodiversity and other planetary boundaries<\/a> to or beyond safe limits (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161). This is what systems thinkers like Donella Meadows call the tragedy of the commons<\/a> (Meadows, 2008, p. 118).<\/span><\/p>\n

The biosphere is the commons as it is not owned or regulated by any one entity. Humans (some more than others) have benefited enormously from extracting resources and dumping waste into the biosphere with little regard for the consequences. The tragedy comes from the lack of feedback to those responsible for the biospheres\u2019 demise until it is too late (Meadows, 2008, p. 121). As dire as this sounds, spending time studying climate science and the WGI report, with contributions from thousands of scientists and researchers collaborating around the world, provided necessary insights. It was like being given a proper diagnosis for a long-endured ailment or essential feedback on the state of the commons. Although the diagnosis is bad news, the treatment provides better news as it leads us towards an equitable, just, safe, biodiverse and healthy path. In this blog post, I will provide some background on how humans caused climate change and how we need a vision of a very low emissions sustainable future to save ourselves.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Background on How We Caused Climate Change<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Scientists have proven the cause of global warming through paleoclimate records and climate modelling (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). They have found that \u201c[i]ncreases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities\u201d (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). Also, carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) is the most significant contributor to GHGs due to its higher concentration level and long life span (centuries). It has not been at such a high concentration \u201cin at least 2 million years\u201d (IPCC 2021, p. 8). Methane (CH4<\/sub>) and nitrous oxide (N2<\/sub>O) are the next most significant contributors, with concentrations \u201chigher than at any time in at least 800,000 years\u201d (IPCC, 2021, p. 8). CH4<\/sub> has a shorter life span (decades) in the atmosphere. Still, it has a much higher global warming potential than CO2<\/sub>, so it can have dramatic short-term impacts (IPCC, 2021, p. 27), which is essential to remember when looking at mitigation actions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Unfortunately, humans have increased the release of all GHGs, but unlike CO2,<\/sub> \u201cland and ocean are not substantial sinks for other [greenhouse gas emissions]\u201d(IPCC, 2021, p. 4). This fact caught my attention as there is so much focus on CO2, <\/sub>yet short-lived emissions could cause problems if not reduced significantly. Unsurprisingly, given how much we rely on it, the primary source of all three of these gases is fossil fuel production, distribution, and combustion for energy, transportation, and industry (Arias, 2021, p.102). Other human activities, such as deforestation and agriculture, also release greenhouse gas emissions (Chen, 2021, p. 244). As a result, the more humans there are and the more we consume, the higher the emissions and concentrations. To date, emission levels and population have only continued to rise (NOAA, 2022, UN, 2022).<\/span><\/p>\n

The global surface temperature has also risen (Chen, 2021, p. 211). Paleoclimate records show that over the centuries, the rise in global surface temperature has followed the same trajectory as the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Chen, 2021, p. 159). Greenhouse gases are so named because they trap heat within the planetary atmosphere, much like the inside of a car on a sunny day that warms up much more than the outside air. Earth\u2019s atmosphere holds heat that would otherwise be reflected out to space. For thousands of years, the atmosphere has been finely tuned with just enough greenhouse gases to balance the heat absorbed from the sun and reflected by the planet (Forster et al.,2021, p. 1021). Figure 1 graphically shows the imbalance today and where the energy is stored, with the majority stored in the ocean.<\/span><\/p>\n

Figure 1<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Incoming and Outgoing Energy Flows and the Current Imbalance Caused by Greenhouse Gases<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\"Comparison<\/p>\n

Note<\/em>. Before human-caused greenhouse gases started accumulating in the atmosphere, the incoming energy was balanced with the outgoing energy. The atmosphere maintained a stable climate. As greenhouse gases accumulated, the energy balance has shifted, with energy now being stored in the ocean, land, ice and atmosphere. From Forster et al., 2021, p. 1021.<\/span><\/p>\n

The finely balanced atmosphere and stable climate created a hospitable environment for a thriving biosphere (Holocene, 2022), and living beings evolved to work within the web of life through reciprocity and mutual flourishing (Kimmerer, 2013, p. 382). But that all changed with industrialization and the release of human-caused greenhouse gases. Here lies the tragedy for humans to solve. Our societies, cultures, and economies have developed around the extraction of resources and high levels of waste. It has afforded incredible technological advancements and consumptive lifestyles for those fortunate enough to create and increase wealth. Unfortunately, there is plenty of \u201cbad news\u201d about the damage and impacts already caused by modern-day living and what we can expect if we keep on a high emissions pathway. Please read my \u201cBad News\u201d<\/a> post for my reflection on the points that hit home for me. If you prefer only to know our best option for our survival, then skip to the \u201cBetter News\u201d<\/a> section for a reflection of what a very low emissions world could be.<\/span><\/p>\n

Holding a Vision and Shifting our Mind Set<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Holding a vision of a very low emissions future is what is needed. The vision, like a beacon, will guide us in our work. This will be necessary as we untangle the economic system that has led to the demise of the planet\u2019s life-giving complex systems. We need to change the economic systems\u2019 destructive goals, structures, and parameters that focus on unlimited growth, putting humans above all and nature as a resource for human fulfillment (Meadows, 2001, p.163). Ultimately a shift in mindset or paradigm, as system thinker Donella Meadows describes, is one of the most effective ways to change a system (2001, p. 163). Getting that shift requires clear communication about the failures of the status quo and a high-emissions pathway so that the problem is defined (Bennett et al., 2021). Included in that communication must be the vision, goals and benefits of the new low-emissions sustainable world. Looking for and talking about successful transitions and approaches help to demonstrate that this is possible. Indigenous Knowledge Keepers<\/a> have much to show us in this regard. Reorienting humans\u2019 current trajectory towards the Green Road while implementing the UN Sustainable Development Goals<\/a> is a legacy we can leave for the next generations. In this way, they will know that we have done the best that we were able to, which is the ultimate act of love.<\/span><\/p>\n

Note on Citations<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.<\/span><\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, . . . K. Zickfeld, (2021). Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/em> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33\u2212144, https:\/\/doi:10.1017\/9781009157896<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Bennett, A., Hatch, C.,& Pike, C. (2021). Climate Messaging that Works, Climate Narrative Initiative, Climate Access. https:\/\/climateaccess.org\/sites\/default\/files\/Climate%20Messaging%20that%20Works%20-%20Talking%20Energy%20Transition%20and%20Climate%20Change%20in%20Canada.pdf<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, P. Hope, P. Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Tr\u00e9guier. (2021). Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/em> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L., Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147\u2013286, doi:10.1017\/9781009157896.003.<\/span><\/p>\n

Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, & H. Zhang. (2021). The Earth\u2019s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change <\/em>[Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923\u20131054, doi:10.1017\/9781009157896.009.<\/span><\/p>\n

Holocene. (2022, October 29). In Wikipedia. https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/w\/index.php?title=Holocene&oldid=1118882407<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

IPCC. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/em> [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3\u221232, https:\/\/doi:10.1017\/9781009157896.001<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Kimmerer, R.W. (2013). Braiding Sweetgrass. Milkweed Editions. https:\/\/milkweed.org\/book\/braiding-sweetgrass<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Khor, N., Arimah, B., Otieno Otieno, R., van Oostrum, M., Mutinda, M., Oginga Martins, J., Godwin, A., Castan Broto, V., Chatwin, M., Dijkstra, L., Joss, S., Sharifi, A., Sverdlik, A., Simon, D., Florio, P., Freire, S., Kemper, T., Melchiorri, M., Schiavina, M., . . . Unnikrishnan, H. (2022). World Cities Report 2022 Envisaging the Future of Cities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. https:\/\/unhabitat.org\/wcr\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A primer (D. Wright, Ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing. https:\/\/www.chelseagreen.com\/product\/thinking-in-systems\/<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2022, April 7). Increase in atmospheric methane set another record during 2021<\/em>. Retrieved December 6, 2022, from https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news-release\/increase-in-atmospheric-methane-set-another-record-during-2021<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

O\u2019Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development<\/em>, 9<\/em>(9), 3461\u20133482. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/gmd-9-3461-2016<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

United Nations (UN). (2022). World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022. https:\/\/www.un.org\/en\/desa\/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Before taking MACAL CALS500 Climate Science, Impacts, and Services, I had the notion that the 2015 Paris target of \u201climiting global average temperature increase to well below 2\u00b0C above preindustrial levels\u201d (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161) would mean the world would be a different but still somewhat safe place. Striving for 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1115,"featured_media":457,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"gallery","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"default","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"_themeisle_gutenberg_block_has_review":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[29,19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-458","post","type-post","status-publish","format-gallery","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-academic-writing","category-cals501","post_format-post-format-gallery"],"uagb_featured_image_src":{"full":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer.jpg",1107,628,false],"thumbnail":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer-150x150.jpg",150,150,true],"medium":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer-300x170.jpg",300,170,true],"medium_large":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer-768x436.jpg",768,436,true],"large":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer-1024x581.jpg",1024,581,true],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer.jpg",1107,628,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/1075\/2022\/12\/UN-Planet-Thermometer.jpg",1107,628,false]},"uagb_author_info":{"display_name":"Deanna","author_link":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/author\/dfourt\/"},"uagb_comment_info":1,"uagb_excerpt":"Before taking MACAL CALS500 Climate Science, Impacts, and Services, I had the notion that the 2015 Paris target of \u201climiting global average temperature increase to well below 2\u00b0C above preindustrial levels\u201d (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161) would mean the world would be a different but still somewhat safe place. Striving for 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial…","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1115"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=458"}],"version-history":[{"count":14,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":489,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458\/revisions\/489"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/457"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=458"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=458"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/webspace.royalroads.ca\/dfourt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=458"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}