Learning to live in uncertain times

as an individual, feeling small, working towards the finish line of a Royal Roads University Masters of Climate Action Leadership. As someone hoping to contribute in some small way, through research, facilitating focus groups, gathering perspectives, compiling evidence. My project, Emergent Futures: Exploring energy transition choices through serious games, has had me juggling work and life commitments while struggling to find time for research. It has taken a lot of stamina to get this far. At a time like this, those with privilege, such as I have, might look to a retreat as an antidote to the grind culture. Instead, I embarked on the opposite, an accelerator. A Climate Week Accelerator workshop to be more specific. Would this help me build resilience in these uncertain times or hasten me towards burn out?

A warning sign painted on street board.
Photo by Duncan Kidd on Unsplash

My pre-work for the workshops was to watch the documentary Regenerar: To die, to dream, to live (Parente, 2023). My sentiment after watching? Wow, this is heavy. There were so many ideas and perspectives flying at me that I knew it would take more than a week to unpack it all.

The unpacking started with workshops which were themed to align with the three sections of the documentary. I had set aside the week to focus solely on this thinking together with my MACAL cohort peers, the Professor and Program head, Dr. Robin S. Cox, Adam Lerner, founder of Solvable and his colleagues.

Day 1: To Die

Participants were asked to make a list of what needed to die. Mine included fossil fuel dependency, disinformation machines, silos of experts, and the idea of continuing with business as usual. I was about to present a poster of my research to date, which was built on the idea of building resilience, connecting the theme across three International climate related agreements (Flood et al., 2022).

Instead of being excited I was feeling jaded and considering shredding my poster with the emerging evidence of the extent that fossil fuel companies were co-opting COP 29 (Amesty, 2024).

Along with the backdrop of the COP 29 meetings, our region was facing yet another extreme weather event. News and weather agencies were reporting that a bomb cyclone was close to dropping onto Vancouver Island (CBC, 2024). It was an unsettling backdrop to the virtual dialogue as just one more event of the omnipresent threats underlying the reason we were gathered.

Image 1 Bomb Cyclone GOES West. NOAA (2024). Click for video

Attending the session on the morning after, I expected some disruption, maybe even a cancellation. But no, instead it acted as a reminder of our privilege of living in the global north. Not to minimize the devastation, but even with thousands impacted, power was being restored so quickly that many didn’t suffer much more than a minor inconvenience (CBC, 2024).

Day 2: To Dream. My dreams of communities imagining regenerative futures into being was fading with doubt and fear was eating away at my motivation, inviting disillusionment. Thoughts of International agreements being co-opted and diluted, international organizations appearing increasingly dysfunctional, and top leaders flailing. Citizens of so many countries turning against their version of a villainized ‘other’.

The facilitators asked us to take a time out, to take a nap. Yes, a five-minute nap. Introducing the idea of the nap as an act of resistance. The physical experience of allowing my mind to take a break, felt a bit like hitting the reset button on an electronic device. The idea was inspired by the Nap Ministry, founded by Tricia Hersey. I was instantly intrigued by the originality of something so peaceful and yet so powerful, as the power of a nap as resistance to the aforementioned grind culture (Hersey, 2024).

Day 3: To Live. I’m coached. Yes, and… I’m reminded that I can channel my disillusion into action.

Reflecting on months of research, of many talks with many people, and on my poster, not yet shredded. I dare to hope and wonder: Can a game be an act of resistance? I think about the idea of antifragility and find military strategists deeming antifragile adversaries as formable foes (Zilincik, 2020). Maybe there is a kernel of something here?

Day 4: Tailored to our MACAL cohort, we started a smaller and more intimate session. I’m reminded to connect with community. I’m challenged to regenerate, to re-source myself as a leader in this work. I try the exercise again. This time I’m focused on what comes next for me as a leader and in wrapping up my project.

What needs to die? I think about SSP3 Regional Rivalry, along with the renewed interest in war games (People Make Games, 2024). Don’t these need to be hospiced?

The dream that I’ll be invoking? That through cooperative games, imagination, and collaborative future building, communities might find a bridge to transformative futures.How will I choose to live? With community, co-developing and bringing into being an antifragility game as an antidote to the growing regional rivalries with the associated rising interest in war games, real and imagined. Working in the cracks of the hierarchies and the rivalries, breaking down silos and planting seeds of change. This is the lived future where I hope you’ll find me. 

References

Amnesty International. 2024, Nov. 8. Global: Alarming footage reinforces dangers of hosting COP29 in a country with close links to fossil fuel companies. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/11/global-alarming-footage-reinforces-dangers-of-hosting-cop29-in-a-country-with-close-links-to-fossil-fuel-companies/

CBC News. (2024, Nov. 20). Tens of thousands without power, ferries cancelled after ‘bomb cyclone’’ batters B.C. coast. Tens of thousands without power, ferries cancelled after ‘bomb cyclone’ batters B.C. coast | CBC News

Climate Data. Learning Zone: Topic 3: Understanding Future Projections. Understanding Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). (ND). Understanding Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) — ClimateData.ca

Flood, S., Jerez Columbié, Y., Le Tissier, M., & O’Dwyer, B. (Eds.). (2022). Creating Resilient Futures: Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction, Sustainable Development Goals and Climate Change Adaptation Agendas. Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-80791-7

Hersey, T. (2024, Nov. 9). We will rest! The art of escape. [web page]. The Nap Ministry | Rest is Resistance

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 2024-Nov. 20. National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service. Department of Commerce. GOES West Monitors Atmospheric River and “Bomb Cyclone”. https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/test.php/news/goes-west-monitors-atmospheric-river-and-bomb-cyclone

Parente, M. (Director). (2023). Regenerar [Film]. Spanda Productions. Regenerar – Regenerar – Possible paths in a damaged planet

People Make Games. 2024, Sep. 5. The games behind your government’s next war. The Games Behind Your Government’s Next War – YouTube

United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA). Business as usual is no longer a viable option. (2023, Sep. 22). “Business as usual is no longer a viable option” | United Nations.

Zilincik, S. 2020. Antifragile Adversaries: How to defeat them? Military Strategy Magazine, Volume 7, Issue 2, summer 2020. PP 32-38. Antifragile Adversaries: How to Defeat Them? – Military Strategy Magazine

Reflecting

The combined efforts of our cohort of climate action change leaders have inspired me with their variety of change leadership plans designed to help our communities build resilience to climate change. I learned something from every one of my cohort’s presentations and in their totality, they’ve revived my sense of cautious optimism.

Making a group wish for our future climate on the Larabanga Mystic Stone

I started CALS 505 – Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change from a place of emotion, mostly passion for change, and I learned to use a logical structure to get to an actionable project. I learned that the power of being able to tell your story of change succinctly will go a long way to making it a reality. Practicing in front of a trusted peer group instilled a sense of confidence in my ability to tell the story while also identifying areas that I still need to work on.

My climate action change leadership story is centred on building resilience. Resilience is a strategic goal of the company I work for and it’s also a term I used in my letter of intent when I applied for the Climate Action Leadership Program. The need to balance resilience as a metaphor against resilience as a measurement is one of my biggest learnings from developing my Climate Action Project Plan. Reflecting on my presentation I believe I was able to impart the facts but the metaphor of how the project contributes to organizational resilience continues to be an area for me to work on.

My conclusion after presenting my project, and watching others present theirs, is that finding the sweet spot between telling my story while making sure the audience has the key facts, is tough. There is no one right way. While there are communications formulas and tips, ultimately personal style, and where you are in your change leadership journey, will influence the presentation. Not every telling of the story needs to feel like a success. The simple act of telling the story and getting feedback helps dial it in. Watching others with a critical eye, and discussing with peers, are invaluable learning exercises, painful as presenting may feel to some of us.

We need narrative to help others visualize our plans in a way that make them relatable. Yet, working in the nebulous world of metaphors is not easy. I think I learned a bit more about using my authentic voice in my work and yet I still feel a disconnect between my professional voice and my natural one. Hopefully, through practice, I’ll find my way to selecting the appropriate voice in the moment I need it. Getting comfortable with my voice can be practiced and will require not just developing a vision statement but learning how to ‘own’ it.

Using a linear thinking tool like the Kellogg Foundation’s logic model (2004) will help me to keep the components of my theory of change organized. It will also help me to refine it as I progress through future iterations. I also need to keep design thinking front of mind to continue to improve the vitality of my vision and to make sure it meets the needs of those who will be impacted by my project. Finally, I’ll continue to use systems thinking as I learn more from the study of the complexity of the climate impacted future ahead of us. I’ll continue to span the horizon for leverage points that can help me make the project a reality and achieve the impact I’ve been working so hard towards. 

I entered the MACAL program while continuing to work so that I could open a new door without closing the one behind me. I’m planning on the same approach for my next steps. I’ve had many conversations about Climate Action over the last 16 months and this will continue. I’ve been able to progress the project that I had in mind before starting the MACAL program. This course helped me to develop a strong change leadership plan that I will continue to refine and tailor in a way that I feel confident bringing forward as a proposal. My hope is to get the initiative at least established and tested within my current organization and then to continue to champion climate action initiatives.

References

Dreier, L., Nabarro, D., Nelson, J. (2019). Systems Leadership for Sustainable Development: Strategies for Achieving Systemic Change. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/files/Systems%20Leadership.pdf

Greenberg, S. S., & Karak, M. (2020). Using Design Thinking to Tackle Climate Change When ‘What You Know No Longer Works.’ Stanford Social Innovation Review. https://doi.org/10.48558/PQ3Z-M311

W.K. Kellogg Foundation. (January 2004). Logic model development guide. https://wkkf.issuelab.org/resource/logic-model-development-guide.html

Integrating ideas across industry and cultural practices

I’m designing a project to implement a Climate Futures Design Team to both support sustainability reporting and to develop ideas for potential transformative climate solutions as an evolution from incrementally responding and  adapting to climate change.

multicultural hands on a tree representing cross cultural team work

This is the final project for the course, Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change.

The goal of the project is to develop idea propositions for equitable, transformative change which requires the team leader to consider approaches that help the team to act responsibly to all other beings, in other words, to do the work to ‘right relations’ (Gram-Hanssen, 2021). The biggest challenge that I see emerging out of this is with integrating ideas across industry and cultural boundaries.

For lessons learned in cross cultural practices I looked to research conducted, in part, by Albert Marshall, a Mi’kmaw elder, who introduced the concept of Two-Eyed seeing in 2004. Since its introduction, there has been a strengthening consensus across Western and Indigenous researchers that successful integration of Western Science and Traditional Knowledge is fundamental to getting to equitable, transformative solutions (Hathaway, 2020, Bartlett & Marshall & Marshall, 2012).

Two-Eyed Seeing is the gift of multiple perspective treasured by many aboriginal peoples and explains that it refers to learning to see from one eye with the strengths of Indigenous knowledges and ways of knowing, and from the other eye with the strengths of Western knowledges and ways of knowing, and to using both these eyes together, for the benefit of all

Bartlett 2012, citing citing Bartlett 2006, 2011, 2012, Bartlett et al. 2012; Hatcher et al. 2009, Iwama et al. 2009; Hatcher and Barlett 2010; Marshall et al. 2010, IISH website,  P.335

To achieve this objective the leader will need to include Indigenous representation to co-design potential future solutions in a way that helps weave ideas across western and Indigenous worldviews. This is a challenging objective for a couple reasons. First, this project has a strong information systems foundation and Indigenous people are under-represented in STEM education so getting Indigenous team members could be challenging (IndigeSTEAM. ND). Second, the demands on Indigenous community member’s time are many and are increasing. A couple of examples are the time demands related to changes on the regulatory front in B.C., such as the implementation of UNDRIP and the Modernization of the Emergency Management Act.

Given the time constraints, one option that might work would be to create, or to connect with, an Indigenous advisory council. This idea of bringing together a knowledgeable group of stakeholders across Western and Indigenous communities was presented by Bartlett et al. as a lesson learned from decades of research into integrating western science and Indigenous knowledge (Bartlett et al., 2012). Their lesson is based on academic research, which could be tested in an Industry environment to determine viability.

Finding or establishing such a council would take time and could be done in parallel with establishing the organization’s internal team. Keeping Indigenous principles in mind, Bartlett et al. extend the principle of two eyed seeing to multiple eyed seeing, explaining the belief that no one person has more than a small piece of knowledge and that we need to tap into the collective consciousness (2012). This concept aligns to what in Western research is referred to as Transdisciplinarity (Corman & Cox, 2020). Bartlett et al. describe how their research maps to transdisciplinary research, describing the key characteristics of relating to social issues, integrating across disciplines, and participatory research (Bartlett et al., 2012).

My project is also embedded in the renewable energy industry as a response to the challenges emerging from the broader societal energy transition. Research into iterative risk management within the electricity sector has identified the value of integrating transdisciplinary knowledge into the process to meet the demands of climate change impacts, both for the Utility and the population it serves (Gerlack et al., 2018).  Research in this area has been unable to find examples of cross sectoral collaboration (Gerlack et al., 2018), which means that this challenge will continue as transdisciplinary approaches are tried and tested. While this research was centered in risk management practices, the researchers have made a case to shift away from what they refer to as a fragmented approach, to consider greater collaboration beyond the utility sector (Gerlack et al., 2018). This shift would not only open the opportunity for new perspectives but would allow for a shift from risk at the center to one of uncertainty at the center. This would support designing for the uncertainty inherent to Climate Change projections and open space for collaborations around scenario-based analysis, leading to the benefits that come with developing strategic foresight.

However, there are benefits with starting with a small and agile team which can be done by starting in the center of climate risk management and at the intersection of the common interests of Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation practices. This would provide the leader with an opportunity to start from practical, established business functions, centered in managing risks, before creating a bridge to broader objectives, once trust in the leader, the team, and the outcomes that they achieve, is further established.

References

Bartlett, C., Marshall, M., & Marshall, A. (2012). Two-Eyed Seeing and other lessons learned within a co-learning journey of bringing together indigenous and mainstream knowledges and ways of knowing. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 2(4), 331–340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-012-0086-8

Corman, I. & Cox, R. (2020). Transdisciplinarity: A Primer. Royal Roads University. https://commons.royalroads.ca/macal/wp-content/uploads/sites/88/2021/04/MACAL_Transdisciplinary_Thinking03-31-21-3.pdf

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). (2022, Oct. 18). Indigenous science. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/science-technology/indigenous-science.html

Gerlak, A. K., Weston, J., McMahan, B., Murray, R. L., & Mills-Novoa, M. (2018). Climate risk management and the electricity sector. Climate Risk Management, 19, 12–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.12.003

Gram-Hanssen, I., Schafenacker, N., & Bentz, J. (2021). Decolonizing transformations through ‘right relations.’ Sustainability Science, 17(2), 673-685. Retrieved 10 May. 2022, from https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00960-9   

IndigeSTEAM. (ND). Indigenous perspectives in STEM & STEAM opening doors for all. https://www.indigesteam.ca/

Institute for Integrative Science and Health. (ND). Two-Eyed Seeing. http://www.integrativescience.ca/Principles/TwoEyedSeeing/

Irwin, T. (2021). Transition Design: Design for systems-level change. American Institute of Graphic Arts (AIGA) National Conference. Terry Irwin [Presenter]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=KEzrqICi7hI

OECD. (ND). Strategic Foresight. Web Page. https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight

Leading within complexity

Earlier this year I wrote about transformation in practice, and the opportunities and challenges of bringing together practitioners from across Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) to enable transformative change. As both a practitioner and learner in this space, I see an opportunity for collaboration to help achieve sustainable adaptations that could improve our ability to address climate change impacts equitably.

As part of my studies in Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change, I’m considering whether Complexity Leadership Theory would be a good fit to address this challenge, specifically for practitioners working within the renewable energy sector. The industry is undergoing a significant transition as a direct result of international pressures to reduce Green House Gas (GHG) emissions while also having to adapt to the current and future impacts of climate hazards.

BC’s renewable energy sector plays an important role in mitigating GHG emissions while also needing to adapt to climate change impacts. BC Hydro is a relevant example, being the primary supplier of hydro electricity, and as the owner of critical infrastructure, having accountability to the Province for climate change adaptation. 

Recent Provincial announcements illustrate how the energy transition is unfolding within BC’s renewable energy sector (British Columbia, CBC). BC is forecasting a 15% increase in demand for renewable energy by 2030 and as a result BC Hydro is planning to put a call out for renewable energy providers in early 2024 (British Columbia, 2023). In parallel, the Provincial government is providing $140 Million for Indigenous-led power projects. As part of this Clean Energy initiative BC Hydro has created a special task force focused on enabling new power project opportunities (British Columbia, 2023). This is a big change for an electric utility that requires stability to ensure a reliable source of electricity to customers. It also makes complexity leadership theory worth considering because it addresses the challenges that come with crossing leadership styles of Operations and Entrepreneurial systems by bridging with Enabling leadership (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017).

The role of renewable energy practitioners with responsibilities for DRM and CCA functions are key. A recent report from the IPCC highlights the need to navigate through adaptation and mitigation options, balancing climate actions, to meet sustainability goals (Schipper et al., 2022, P.2666). Further, the 2018 British Columbia Auditor General report on Climate Change, highlighted that managing climate change includes both adaptation, to reduce harm, and mitigation, to reduce emissions, and that the Province was not adequately managing the risks posed by climate change (AGBC, 2018).

Given that the challenge exists within the renewable energy space requires considering that established power producers are by necessity, operational, ordered systems. Electric power systems are considered critical infrastructure, meaning that it is essential for the functioning of society and the economy (OAGBC, 2019). Service disruptions, including those caused by climate hazards, can have catastrophic effects to the communities that energy utilities serve. While an individual home might see a disruption as an inconvenience, a large grid failure could cascade through communities and cause widespread outages with higher potential for catastrophic damage. For this reason, the industry is highly regulated by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) standards. 

Driven by the need for increased renewable energy sources to combat reliance on fossil fuels, BC is introducing an entrepreneurial model which introduces uncertainty. This change brings an organizational challenge of working across operational and entrepreneurial spaces, where research has shown a need to act as complex adaptive system (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017). This makes the Complexity Leadership model a good fit because it works with the tension that occurs between ordered and entrepreneurial systems (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017). 

According to Uhl-Bien & Arena, order is the enemy of adaptability and can stifle the organizational dynamics needed to effectively respond to complexity (2017). Further, “organizations that enable an adaptive response do not turn to a top-down approach. Instead, they engage networks and emergence” (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017, P.10).

Organizations that enable an adaptive response do not turn to a top-down approach. Instead, they engage networks and emergence”

Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017, P.10

The benefit of the Complexity Leadership Model is that it brings together Operational, Entrepreneurial, and Enabling leadership styles. While operational leaders are well established within the sector, the new business model that is being introduced will bring entrepreneurial leaders with it. This is demonstrated by the creation of the BC Hydro Task Force with the strategic priorities of

  • Improving the speed of permitting and delivery of required infrastructure
  • Modernizing regulatory framework to better align with government priorities while protecting rate payers
  • Identifying, enabling and accelerating economic opportunities for clean energy.

(British Columbia, 2023)

What may be missing is the enabling leadership and adaptive spaces that are needed to link people and ideas from across these spaces to support emergence and to help changes stick. “Emergence is the creation of a new order that happens when agents (e.g., people, technology, information, resources) in a networked system combine together in an environment poised for change to generate the emergence of something that did not exist previously” (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017, P. 10).

A potential incubator for an adaptive space exists within organizations that have functional managers from across areas of the business who have DRM or CCA responsibilities included as one part of their operational leadership role.

Figure 1: Application of Complexity Leadership Model – Adapted from Uhl-Bien & Arena (2017)

Figure 1 demonstrates how the complexity leadership model could be applied by creating an adaptive space within existing renewable energy organizations, starting with team members with responsibilities for DRM and CCA functions. This is where the enabling change leader comes in who can start in the fertile ground of shared purpose that exists between DRM and CCA and open an adaptive space for transformation ideas to take hold which could be operationalized through strengthening connections across leaders in the Entrepreneurial and Operational spaces. CCA is relatively new when compared to DRM and integration of capabilities across the practices are typically not well developed, though they share many commonalities (NIRAS, 2021). This brings additional challenges for the enabling leader.

By working across communities and establishing a goal of sustainable development, the enabling leader can engage senior operational leaders to request sponsorship of proposals emerging from the adaptive space. These ideas would have already been socialized through managers with whom they lead, and presumably trust, facilitating the progression of transformative ideas into sustainable, equitable climate solutions.  

To illustrate potential outcomes from this model, one can look to examples of the clean energy initiatives of transitioning reliance on diesel fuel to micro grids, such as the one for the remote Indigenous community of Xeni Gwet’in (British Columbia, 2020). The initiative supports both a reduction in GHG emissions as well as the resilience of the community by providing 24/7 power and local reliability for the community to withstand climate change induced outages. With the introduction of additional power supplied through renewable sources such as wind, solar, and even ocean energy options, there will be new opportunities to explore transformative adaptations. This model builds on the concept of complex adaptive systems that can be found in nature, such as in bee colonies, where highly productive pollinators operate on simple rules and networked interactions (Uhl-Bien & Arena, 2017). Learning from nature, using the Complex Leadership Model for structure, perhaps it’s time for the creation of a Hive for Climate Action, opening space for cross pollinating ideas, and creating linkages to help emerging transformative adaptations stick.

References

British Columbia. 2020, Jun. 18. Province supporting Xeni Gwet’in First Nation transition to clean energy. News Release. https://archive.news.gov.bc.ca/releases/news_releases_2017-2021/2020EMPR0019-001084.htm

British Columbia. (ND). Land Use – ocean energy. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/industry/crown-land-water/crown-land/crown-land-uses/clean-energy/ocean-energy#:~:text=British%20Columbia%20has%20significant%20ocean,Projects%20that%20exceed%2050%20megawatts

British Columbia. (2023, Jun. 15). BC Hydro Task Force. [web page]. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/governments/organizational-structure/ministries-organizations/crown-corporations/bc-hydro-and-power-authority/bchydrotaskforce#about

British Columbia (2023, Jun. 15). Clean Power to electrify B.C.’s future. News Release. https://news.gov.bc.ca/releases/2023EMLI0036-000941

CBC News. 2023, Jun. 15. B.C. Hydro set to launch search for new, clean electricity sources. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-hydro-search-new-electricity-sources-1.6877920

IPCC. (2022, Dec.). Sixth Assessment Report. Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Fact Sheet – North America. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_NorthAmerica.pdf

NIRAS. (2021, Mar.). Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Capability Statement. NIRAS. https://www.niras.com/media/nh1pggyp/cca-drm-capability-statement.pdf

Office of the Auditor General of British Columbia (OAGBC). (2019, Mar.). Detection and Response to Cybersecurity threats on BC Hydro’s Industrial Control Systems. https://www.bcauditor.com/sites/default/files/publications/reports/OABGC_Cybersecurity-ICS-BC-Hydro_RPT.pdf

Office of the Auditor General of British Columbia (OAGBC). (2018, Feb.). Managing Climate Change Risks: An Independent Audit.  https://www.bcauditor.com/sites/default/files/publications/reports/Climate_Change_FINAL_0.pdf

Schipper, E.L.F., A. Revi, B.L. Preston, E.R. Carr, S.H. Eriksen, L.R. Fernandez-Carril, B.C. Glavovic, N.J.M. Hilmi, D. Ley, R. Mukerji, M.S. Muylaert de Araujo, R. Perez, S.K. Rose, and P.K. Singh, 2022: Climate Resilient Development Pathways. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2655–2807, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.027. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter18.pdf

Uhl-Bien, M. & Arena, M. (2017). Complexity Leadership: Enabling people and organizations for adaptability. Organizational Dynamics. 46, pp. 9-20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.orgdyn.2016.12.001.

Uhl-Bien, M. & Arena, M. (2016). Complexity Leadership Theory: Shifting from Human Capital to Social Capital. SHRM Executive Network. https://www.shrm.org/executive/resources/people-strategy-journal/spring2016/pages/complexity-leadership.aspx

Starting with a diagnosis

Adam Lerner, co-founder of Solvable, helps organizations “live between worlds” in a civilization in transition, by learning how to diagnose, interrupt, and innovate (2023, RRU). Focusing on the initial challenge of diagnostics, I think a good place to start for adaptive leaders, educated in Western academia, is to spend time directly within communities most vulnerable to climate change, hearing their stories and learning from their perspectives.

In many areas of the world Indigenous peoples are the most vulnerable to climate change and have also shown incredible resilience learned through their Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS). To start the work of crossing the boundaries of Western science and IKS, we need to open space for healthier relations by surrendering our arrogance (Oliveira, 2022). Modernity has a hierarchy of worth that ‘deeply conditions how we relate to ourselves and to each other’ (Oliveira, 2022). According to Oliveira, to surrender we must first identify what the traits are and where they come from. Referencing the underprivileged status of IKS in academia, she cautions that surrender comes with loss for some and gains for others (Oliveira, 2022).

While I believe that this surrendering is necessary work for an adaptive leader, it brings me to a place of emotional discomfort as my experience has preferred technology over humanities. Hathoway (2019) in an assessment of the American Green New Deal (GND), argues that “Viewing Climate Change through a lens of environmental science and technology precludes any alternative perspectives that would affect our diagnosis of the problem and ensuing responses.” She argues that we need an intersectional lens to build relations across communities and to work towards social justice (Hathoway, 2019).

This is difficult for those of us working in organizations that are operating with increasingly constrained resources that leave little, if any space, for anything but prescriptive outcomes (RRU, 2023). This has been my experience, which aligns to the challenges described by Adam Lerner of Solvable. Lerner discusses the need for developing practices that prepare one to “sit in the zone of disequilibrium productively” (RRU, 2023, 6:04).

In my own attempt to both surrender my western arrogance, and condition myself to exist in this zone of disequilibrium, I made space to engage in dialogue with an international cohort, as part of a climate change field study in West Africa. The course started in my comfort area, with familiar academic research reports about the importance of biocultural heritage. In the field, I was quickly pulled out of my comfort zone while meeting with Indigenous community members and listening to stories of resilience in a place that has been dealing with climate change as a fact of life for thousands of years (Brown & Crawford, 2008). I listened to stories about ecosystem memories and what this has meant for biodiversity and migration and the resulting resilience of the people.

Midway through the program, while standing inside an Islamic stone building of an ancient design, I felt physical relief from the muggy heat and yet I was emotionally unsettled. The teachings were set against the backdrop of a religious landscape where over 95% of people practice a formal religion, primarily Christian in the South and Islamic in the North (HRW, 2018). 

Having spent my career in the pursuit of technological solutions to a variety of problems, I have resisted looking back, feeling it was the anti-thesis to progress. I still find aspects unsettling, particularly with respect to women’s rights.

When culture is embedded in our stories, and we want to learn from Indigenous ways of knowing, what does it mean when that knowledge prefers some bodies over others, or worse, sanctions harm to those that do not comply to the norms of their dominant culture? This complicated moment of conflict between my physical and emotional response, made me reflect on Hathaway’s point about overlapping intersectionality, and how we need to consider people who are marginalized by the intersection of power structures. It may be impossible for those at the intersection to ask for justice and as a result, society may fail to grasp their issues (Hathoway, 2019).

Back in the safe comfort of my first world home I reflect on my experience. The words of the Feminist Cyborg Scholar, Donna Haraway, come to mind, “it matters which stories tell stories” (Haraway, 2017, 7:43). As a Lesbian, I struggle. I come from a place of privilege where I’m free and protected at home and yet was temporarily vulnerable in the physical space I found myself during this period of study. Even getting there took some self-talk to overcome my fear of willingly putting myself into a space where I would become one of the vulnerable. While Ghana’s laws against same sex relations are not the worst (jail vs. death sentence), they are not trivial (HRW, 2018). There is a distinct gap in the official government position on human rights and what was found in the Human Rights Watch research report (HRW, 2018).  I want to surrender my first world arrogance and learn from the incredible resilience of the global south, but I fear their religious ways, and I question how to get to a just outcome for all. In the hard work ahead as a Climate Action Leader, there is so much parallel work needed to protect those trying to survive in the intersections of vulnerability.

The 2018 HRW recommendations to Ghana include a need to “… focus on addressing the intersecting forms of discrimination that affect lesbian and bisexual women—and ensure that the necessary legislative and policy measures are taken to ensure their safety, dignity, and equality” (2018, HRW). The question remains, who will surrender their arrogance? How will this be possible as the impacts of climate change continue to increase the stress on these communities?

Returning to Oliveira, and the need to surrender arrogance, she conjectures that it will take generations for systems to be recalibrated and to be working together on a level playing field (Oliveira, 2022). I worry for those who don’t have time to wait. While we need to mourn our losses (Haraway 2017) and to learn from the past (Oliveira, 2022) we can’t romanticize histories told by those in positions of privilege. It is in this work on the diagnosis that we can build confidence that we will be interrupting the right things before beginning the work of innovation. Climate Action Leaders need to do the emotional work that prepares them to ask the hard questions about norms and structures of power, and in the words of Haraway, work towards an equitable and just vision so that “what comes after will not be like what comes before” (Haraway, 2017, 7:43).

Reference:

Brown, O. & Crawford, A., (2008). Assessing the security implications of climate change for West Africa: Country case studies of Ghana and Burkina Faso. International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD). 

Haraway, D. (2017). Staying with the Trouble. [Audio book]. Chapter 4: Making Kin: Anthropocene, Capitalocene, Plantationocene, Chthulucene. Tantor Audio.

Hathaway, J.R. (2020). Climate Change, the Intersectional Imperative, and the Opportunity of the Green New Deal, Environmental Communication, 14:1, 13-22, DOI: 10.1080/17524032.2019.1629977.

Human Rights Watch (HRW). (2018). “No Choice but to Deny Who I Am” : Violence and Discrimination against LGBT people in Ghana. ISBN: 978-1-6231-35621 http://www.hrw.org

Jackson, S. & Humphrey C., (2022, JUL 28).  (Yale Sustainability. Yale Experts Explain Intersectionality and Climate Change.

Machado de Oliveira, V. Release Date 2022-01-04. Hospicing Modernity. Facing Humanity’s Wrongs and the Implications for Social Activism. Audiobook. Audible. North Atlantic Books. Narrated by Dougald Hine. Copyright 2021.

Royal Roads University (RRU). (Producer). (2023). Interview with Adam Lerner [Video]. Interviewer: Robin Cox. Royal Roads University Moodle. https://media.royalroads.ca/owl/media/macal/videos/CA

Shifting gears to lead change

My take-away from the first year of the MACAL program is that it was designed to prepare climate action leaders with core competencies to research, analyze and design climate action projects. So far in the program I’ve worked with my professors and peers to co-construct learning products that demonstrate my competency across communications, climate science, and risk management. In the last course I’ve drawn from these skills to develop a business case for climate action. Does this mean that I’ve reached the pinnacle of learning how to be a climate action leader? Is it enough to have learned to identify, design, and make the case for climate solutions?

I wonder if we have what we need to work through the dialectical tension that comes with working across disciplines. I wonder how, when new transformative ideas result from transdisciplinary efforts, that they will be received by the practitioner’s individual disciplines.

What tools and skills are needed to help make change take hold and for transformative ideas to stick? It’s with these questions that I look forward to the next course, CALS 505 – Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change.

In anticipation, I watched Denise Withers’ TEDx Talk, How to Make Change Easier with Narrative Intelligence, where I discovered a hint that we may be returning to the theme of the power of story. This makes sense. Many successful leaders have learned how to tap into the power of story to inspire. A recent leadership example comes from Sanna Marin, the youngest person to ever be appointed as the Prime Minister of Finland.

While receiving an Honorary Doctor of Humane Letters, Marin delivered an inspiring commencement message to New York University’s Class of 2023. Starting out with the charge that “the face of power is not the same as the face of the people—and this has to change” (Marin, 2023).

Image 1 video capture of Sanna Marin giving
a NYU Commencement Speech (Marin, 2023)

Marin emphasized 3 key messages for the new grads, while challenging them to step up:

You have to want things to change
Wanting is not enough, you need to take over
Don’t be afraid

Marin painted a global backdrop of intersecting vulnerabilities and then enumerated several problems that are awaiting the application of the talents of emerging leaders, not least among them, climate change.

Climate change is widely considered to be a wicked problem. The use of the adjective ‘wicked’, to describe problems that are swirling in complexity, has been evolving since the 1970s (Rittel & Webber, 1973 cited by Cormon & Cox, 2020). So, while I’m inspired by Marin’s advice, I also wonder if inspiration is enough to lead solutions designed to address wicked problems. I wonder about the need for competencies such as the power of dialogue for working across opposing world views. We know that “[w]ith wicked problems there is a slipperiness, high levels of uncertainty, and high stakes” (Corman & Cox, 2020, P.4). Combine this with the urgency that comes from being constantly bombarded with climate doomsday headlines. Is it any wonder that, when it comes to the topic of climate change, “…we have largely lost the ability to simply talk and think” (Isaacs, 1999, P.78). In dialogue, and the art of thinking together, Isaacs is speaking of this loss more broadly as he describes the fundamentals of dialogic skills. He proposes four dialogic practices as required building blocks (Figure 1). Starting with truly listening without resistance to the words being spoken, showing respect through awareness of the other’s position, suspending judgement, and then using your voice, to speak your truth (Issacs, 1999).

Dialogue is a foundational practice needed by transdisciplinary leaders because as Corman & Cox (2020), citing Bohm (1990), remind us, “[d]ialogue makes the emergence of new understandings possible” (P.14). After considering dialogue, the next question that arises for me is: what happens when, after the practitioners, skilled in dialogue, triumphing over dialectical tension, with transformative ideas in hand, return to their own disciplines, and are met at the door by stubborn resistance to change?

To enact change, are technical skills combined with dialogic skills, enough to work through cultural resistance? Transdisciplinary leaders need to help make change happen. The competency not yet explored, change leadership, holds the promise of helping emerging climate action leaders to engage others in the necessary work towards change at all levels, from the individual, to communities, to the broader societal shifts that are needed.

Without competency in dialogue, as well as change leadership, new ideas may not get a chance to grow into the solutions that hold the promise for better futures. Contemplating the message in Withers’ TedX Talk, I return to dissect Marin’s speech. I realize part of Marin’s power to inspire the future leaders in her audience is in her mastery of narrative. I experienced this power viscerally while watching. I had my own ‘aha’ moment as she explained that if she had waited for permission to step into politics, she’d still be waiting. It was her personal story that connected me to my own stories, where too many times, I had waited for permission to act, and in doing so, lost the opportunity for the changes I desired. This idea of connecting through stories has stood the test of time. In her talk, Withers suggests that one of the reasons we are on the brink of collapse on so many fronts, not just climate change, is that we’re stuck in our own stories. She suggests that building a competency in “narrative intelligence gives us the power to create the future we want” (Withers, 2023, 10:30). So it is with constructive optimism that I’ll enter this final course, ready to put the cap on the Graduate Diploma, by learning the skill of change making.

References

Corman, I. & Cox, R. (2020). Transdisciplinarity: A Primer. Royal Roads University. https://commons.royalroads.ca/macal/wp-content/uploads/sites/88/2021/04/MACAL_Transdisciplinary_Thinking03-31-21-3.pdf

Isaacs, W. (1999). dialogue and the art of thinking together: a pioneering approach to communicating in business and in life. Doubleday.

Marin, S. (2023, May 17). New York University Commencement Speech. [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMms7FVLSiI&t=266s

Wallston, K.A. (1994, Apr.) Cautious Optimism vs. Cockeyed Optimism. Psychology and Health 9(3):201-203. DOI: 10.1080/08870449408407480. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232606472_Cautious_Optimism_Vs_Cockeyed_Optimism

Withers, D. (2022, Apr. 20). How to Make Change Easier with Narrative Intelligence. [TEDx Talks]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5paqr2IN_zU

Transformation in practice

It’s June 4, 2023, the planet is at 424.72 ppm, and here I am, stuck at an intersection, in a metaphorical traffic jam. I’m studying Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and working in Disaster Risk Management (DRM).  

I’ve been asked to make an argument for or against the question, what’s the better approach to adaptation, incremental or transformational? DRM is decidedly in the incremental sphere, which makes me wonder, if a practice area doesn’t have the vocabulary, then how does the practitioner make the switch? One of the assigned readings for this line of inquiry, Adaptation and transformation, provides some insight into this question with an argument for a need to “… ultimately co-construct a more dialectical approach to DRM/CCA…” (Pelling et al., 2015, P.124).

Typically, DRM is described as a cyclical process ranging from prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery (GRDC, ND). Historically, there’s been no language for transformation. DRM lacks the vocabulary for going beyond incremental adaptation. Some DRM practitioners might say that incremental adaptation is the stretch goal.

Although CCA and DRM practitioners operate in separate spheres, there are commonalities (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Simplified illustration of commonalities and differences of the DRM and CCA topics, from placard-network.eu cited in NIRAS (2021).

Pelling et al. (2015) provide a comparative example for this need to co-construct a more dialectical approach:

A DRM Advisor with incremental framing: working towards community risk reduction, is compared to a Climate Change policy advocate using transformational framing: setting GHG targets.

The latter is in support of an energy transition away from fossil fuels while the former is triaging the impacts of fossil fuel induced climate change hazards. Somewhere in the middle is the more typical CCA practitioner working on incremental changes such as protecting communities from the impacts of climate change, like sea level rise or increasing wildfire events. Each practitioner is interested in solving parts of the same problem, but they’re working in separate spheres.

Meanwhile, as practitioners on both sides of DRM and CCA continue to keep busy with calculating incremental adaptation measures to protect communities from increasingly frequent and severe climate change impacts, the world continues to become more polarized. The definition for polarization is broad, ranging from racial segregation, class divides, and political ideologies, to name a few (Rao, P., 2023). The common thread is increasing societal conflict.

Figure 2 Polarization image source: 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer cited by Rao, P. 2023

With this increasing societal conflict, it’s hard to make space and time for transformative change, to create safe spaces for dialogue, to build community, to learn together. It’s easier to continue along in our asynchronous swim lanes, calculating the exact right formulas, based on our area of specialty, our world view, within our limited spheres of control.

How do we break away from the dominant power structures to become a leader capable of switching over to transformational adaptation? Is it even necessary or is incremental adaptation good enough? The authors of the second required reading, Fedele et al. (2019), argue that transformative adaptation to reduce the impacts of climate change is rare, facing many barriers, such as those with vested interest in particular outcomes. They also point to narrow mandates for institutions responsible for planning adaptive interventions, and which therefore lack political or social support for this type of change. They provide an agricultural example (Figure 3) showing a continuum, from coping to incremental adaptation, to transformative adaptation, illustrating possible responses to climate change impacts.

Figure 3 –  3 possible ways for social-ecological systems to respond
to climate change (Fedele et al., 2019, P.118)

It’s here the practitioner hits the roadblock as “transformation raises the stakes in adaptation decision-making, bringing into focus many ethical and procedural questions: who-or what processes – determine the dominant mode for adaptation, and selects objects for change?” (Pelling et al., 2015, P.115).

Faced with this challenge, situated within the social contract, with rights and responsibilities structured in hierarchical relationships, such as those in the workplace, raises a question. How do practitioners find paths away from incremental, business as usual processes, when they are co-dependent on the system’s success? One thought is through the development of transformational policy. However, adaptation pathways interact over time, in unplanned ways, and even when transformational policy is directed, it may still be undermined as it’s implemented locally (Pelling et al., 2015). Resistance is embedded in culture, economic processes, and land use systems (Pelling et al., 2015).

One example of the power of resistance to transformational change can be seen in responses to environmental migration, which is exacerbated by climate change. Forecasts of future migrations vary from between 25 million to 1 billion people by 2050, depending on which climate scenarios are realized (IOM, ND). As increasing political strife related to environmental migrations have shown us, there are no easy answers. There are, however, organizations and projects focused on bringing these two practices closer to working together, towards their shared goals.

PLAtform for Climate Adaptation and Risk reDuction (PLACARD), an intersectional project, has developed a visualization tool called the Connectivity Hub, which aims to help practitioners find information and organizations working at this important intersection. The project aims to counter fragmentation between domains and sets an example for co-constructing a dialectical approach to DRM and CCA. In this lies hope for pathways to co-constructed initiatives which might just help practitioners like me, stuck at the intersection, to forge pathways to a better future.

References

Fedele, G., Donatti, C. I., Harvey, C. A., Hannah, L., & Hole, D. G. (2019). Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems. Environmental Science and Policy, 101, 116–125.

NIRAS. (2021, Mar.). Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Management Capability Statement. NIRAS. https://www.niras.com/media/nh1pggyp/cca-drm-capability-statement.pdf

Pelling, M., O’Brien, K. & Matyas, D. (2015). Adaptation and transformation. Climatic Change (133), 113–127. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1303-0

Rao, P. (2023, Jan. 18). Which Countries are the Most Polarized. Visual Capitalist. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/polarization-across-28-countries/

The tension of competing self interests

Is self-interest enough of an incentive to drive climate action? A good place to start looking for an answer is to consider whose self-interest is served, or not served, by near term, potentially costly, climate action. Too many organizations, politicians, and individuals still perceive climate action as a threat to their self-interest. This reflects the temporal challenge of climate action which requires weighing immediate costs against perceived future benefits. This is particularly true where self-interest is tightly tied to financial gain as a prime imperative.

When the financial bottom line is the priority, sustainability reporting can become a lever used by customers, shareholders, and voters to put pressure on Corporations and Governments, to re-align climate action with current self-interest. Sustainability reporting has been one way for stakeholders to assess corporate performance in broader terms than their financial bottom line. It’s been around for years but has had limited success as a motivator to ensure corporate fiduciary duty accounts for more than financial interest.

Environment Social Governance (ESG) disclosures are the latest in this trend (Davis Polk & Wardwell, 2017) and the UN Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are the leading ESG framework for large companies (Huber et al., 2018). ESG disclosures are now required by many stock exchanges, regulatory bodies, and other government agencies to give visibility into how ESG risks and opportunities are being managed (Peterdy, 2023). The Government of British Columbia recently published it’s first ESG report along with credit scores with their ESG relevance noted (Province of British Columbia, 2022). An ESG framework, within a capitalist system, can find a pathway beyond the financial bottom line through the UN SDGs because the SDGs are designed to build a future for all life to thrive.

A leading feminist economist, Julie Nelson, challenges the assumption that capitalism needs to be tied to the growth imperative (Jarow, 2020). Nelson argues that capitalism can be changed from within by fixing the empty void that was created when the underlying economic theory was divorced from nature (Jarow, 2020). Nelson argues that the growth imperative underlying capitalism is simply one belief and that some of the resulting problems, such as planned obsolescence, didn’t start until the 1970’s (Jarow, 2020).  

Unfortunately, here we are now, in a society where some powerful leaders are trying hard to fight against those who are engaged in climate action, action that could start to repair the bonds between humans and nature. Self interest motivates action, not just positive climate action, which means that self interest alone is not enough. A good illustration of the failure of self-interest alone to drive climate action is shown in Figure 1. Notice the red banner asking for donations for hurricane relief efforts, followed by the Florida Government’s statement barring State Investments from Environment Social Governance (ESG) considerations.

Figure 1 Screenshot of DeSantis’ anti-ESG statement (Florida Government, 2023)

The contradiction on the page may seem glaring to some. It demonstrates the challenge of relying on self-interest as an incentive to climate action when there is a tension between the self-interest of the current self and that of the future self. In this case, the immediate and local cost pressures of repairing hurricane damage, coupled with profits from fossil fuel production, is competing against increasing global pressure for mitigation action, which is seen as a threat to their economy.

Climate projections will always come with some uncertainty, leaving room for debate about whether and when climate action is in someone’s self-interest. Using hurricanes as an example, we know that scientists are certain that atmospheric aerosols from human activity influence climate, although future projections of impacts come with degrees of uncertainty (Myhre et al., 2013). While there is evidence of increasing tropical storms since the 1970’s and that this is, in part, driven by human activity, the projections of whether very intense hurricanes will continue to increase, come with a medium to high confidence (Knutson, 2023).

In the US, the trend against ESG considerations has been taken up by multiple fossil fuel producing States, resulting in a federal bill that was vetoed by President Biden (Associated Press, 2023). As Independent Power Producers began being denied loans based on ESG considerations, they began lobbying States who then argued that considering ESG goals amounts to discrimination against fossil fuel companies (Barbaro, 2023). This also comes when record profits were being made due to the war in Ukraine. The highest return on investments, like State pension funds, would have been from investments in fossil fuels (Barbaro, 2023).  

Nelson points out that social science research has found that self interest is not the strongest motivator and that we need to be looking at the moral imperative for climate action (Nelson, 2019). Further, she argues that we need to re-establish our human-nature connection as foundational to our economy (Jarow, 2020). ESG disclosures tied to UN SDGs may be just the incentive we need to secure commitment to the moral imperative of climate action. Success will be dependent on how much weight they are given over short term profits, by customers, shareholders, and voters. If successful, it would indicate a shift from status quo capitalism and a step towards reconnecting nature and self. If this reconnection were to happen, then perhaps, self interest could be enough to incentivize climate action.

References

Associated Press. (2023, Mar. 23). House GOP fails to override Biden Veto of ESG investing ban. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/house-gop-fails-to-override-biden-veto-of-esg-investing-ban

Barbaro, Michael (Host). (2023, Mar. 13). What is E.S.G., and Why Are Republicans So Mad About It? [Audio podcast transcript]. New York Times. The Daily.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/podcasts/the-daily/esg-republicans-biden-veto-investing.html?showTranscript=1

Davis Polk & Wardwell. (2017, Jul. 12). ESG Reports and Ratings: What They Are, Why They Matter? Client Memorandum. https://www.davispolk.com/sites/default/files/2017-07-12_esg_reports_ratings_what_they_are_why_they_matter_0.pdf

Florida Government. (2023, Jan. 17). Governor Ron Desantis Further Prohibits Woke ESG Considerations from State Investments. https://www.flgov.com/2023/01/17/governor-ron-desantis-further-prohibits-woke-esg-considerations-from-state-investments/

Huber, Betty Moy, Comstock, Michael, Smith, Hilary, Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, (2018, Oct. 4). UN Sustainable Development Goals—The Leading ESG Framework for Large Companies. https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/10/04/un-sustainable-development-goals-the-leading-esg-framework-for-large-companies/

Jarow, Oshan (Host). 2020, Sep. 12. Julie Nelson: What if Capitalism Isn’t the Problem? (S1 E14). [Audio podcast episode]. Musing Mind Podcast. https://www.musingmind.org/podcasts/julie-nelson

Knutson, Tom. (2023, Apr. 11). Global Warming and Hurricanes: An overview of current research results. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Myhre, G., Myhre, C. E.L., Samset, B. H. & Storelvmo, T. (2013) Aerosols and their Relation to Global Climate and Climate Sensitivity. Nature Education Knowledge 4(5):7. https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/aerosols-and-their-relation-to-global-climate-102215345/

Nelson, J.A. (2019). Chapter 6: Climate change and economic self-interest. In Kanbur, R., & Shue, H. (Eds.). Climate justice:  Integrating economics and philosophy.  Oxford University Press.  (pp. 113- 122)

Peterdy, Kyle. (2023, Jan. 11). What is ESG Disclosure. Corporate Finance Institute. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/esg/esg-disclosure/

Province of British Columbia, Ministry of Finance. (2022). B.C. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Summary Report. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/debt-management/bc-esg-report.pdf

Confronting climate risk through story and technology

At the start of the Climate Risk Management course I was re-immersed in researching  Indigenous perspectives and reminded of the guiding principal of Two-Eyed Seeing developed by Mi’kmaq Elder, Albert Marshal, to bridge Indigenous and western ways of knowing (Bartlett et al., 2012). In previous courses I had learned of the value of storytelling as integral to Indigenous ways of knowing. In this course, I found myself embracing the power of story, while reaching beyond, to understand how the Two-Eyed Seeing principle would be applied when working across western science and Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS).

To get started in risk assessment work, I needed a deeper understanding of resilience. The ICLEI framework used across many Canadian Municipalities, was a good place to start as I  considered community resilience from a disaster management perspective. The Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Green Protocol, provided additional value to consider critical infrastructure resilience from an Engineering-ecosystem perspective (2022). However, when I went deeper, considering the dynamic and interconnectedness of the social-ecological systems, I didn’t find a polished practitioner’s guideline. I did find an academic framework (Frazier et al., 2014) and a critique (Jozaei et al., 2022), both of which provided insights into the challenge of working with this complexity.

Considering social-ecological vulnerability requires going beyond adaptation to transformations that may be required. This is particularly true for coastal communities that are highly vulnerable to climate risks including sea level rise. These are places where vulnerabilities could require transformations such as switching from an established economic base or physically re-locating a community (Jozaei et al., 2022). This brought me back to contemplate the potential for stories to help participants visualize transformational change.

Telling good stories about climate change is not easy. The release of the IPCC AR6 synthesis report has renewed criticism of the failures of past climate science stories. For guidance, practitioners can look to guidelines from experts including Climate Outreach, De Meyer & Hubble-Rose, and Climate Access. A common thread across them is that a positive tone, and active story structure, play an important role in engaging audiences. Storytelling, framed around Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), can also help climate action practitioners employ futures thinking. Briefly, SSPs describe possible futures, based on policy decisions, and potential climate actions, that help visualize alternative futures, while also considering the tension between mitigation and adaptation challenges (Riahi et al., 2017).

Figure 1 Example of a visual story in the IPCC 2023 Synthesis Report, P.7.

An example of how SSPs can be used to tell a future story is shown in this illustration from the latest IPCC synthesis report (Figure 1). This is an effective short story about how three demographic groups could experience a hotter and different future, as they age, ranging from the lowest likely temperature in SSP1 to the highest in SSP5 (IPCC, 2023).

Setting the future within the context of SSP1: Sustainability – Taking the Green Road, can prevent a hopeful story from turning into a fantastical utopia. There is an evolving term for this type of story, protopia. This term was originally used to describe incremental improvements over time, specifically tied to the acceleration of technology (Needelman, 2023, WordBuzz, 2011). More recently, it’s being adopted and redefined by futurists and sustainability experts as a framework for telling stories that incorporate designs for positive and equitable futures (Bielskyte, 2021, Narberhause, ND, Paiss, Z, ND, Luksha et al., 2017). This evolved protopian structure is well suited for inspiring climate action, as climate change impacts will not be felt equally across communities.  

As a climate action practitioner, I need to know how to go beyond storytelling. I need to know how to work with subject matter experts to design pathways to this future. This work requires confronting the multi-parameter complexity of climate vulnerability risk analysis. I found a framework for this purpose in the Spatially Explicit Resilience Vulnerability (SERV) model (Frazier et al., 2014). SERV combines social and ecological data, in a spatially explicit manner, to support the analysis of resilience and vulnerability of social-ecological systems. However, I also found that assessments considering social-ecological resilience, although necessary, have been criticized due to their limitations stemming from the challenge of addressing the complex interrelated systems of humans and nature (Jozaei et al., 2022). At this point I found myself wondering how much complexity our human brains can effectively process.

I wondered if technology could help. Headlines touting the benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are becoming common, but not as much is being said about Intelligence Augmentation (IA). While AI may seek to remove the need for the human in the task, IA seeks to enhance human ingenuity to improve decision making (IEEE,2023). IA has been used in medical analysis to identify treatment options, and similar areas that require processing immense amounts of data. In situations like these, human decision makers can become overwhelmed, fatigued, or distracted  (IEEE,2023).

Given the volume, and often incompleteness of data, along with uncertainties inherent to climate change vulnerability analysis, it’s reasonable to assume there would be value in investigating the application of IA technologies. This raised the question of whether practitioners should rush to embrace such applications or proceed with caution, given the known bias inherent in western scientific methods.

Searching for an answer, I turned to the advances being made in Indigenous led research. Here I found an Indigenous protocol and artificial intelligence position paper. The protocol was used in an experiment by a team of Indigenous and Western project members to develop a mobile app to engage Indigenous youth in learning their native language (Lewis et al., 2020). The value of using experimentation, to explore transformative futures like this, was also identified by participants in the Jozaei et al. (2020) study critical of social vulnerability assessment methods. There are few spaces where experimentation across western science and IKS is taking place. One innovative program is setting out to change this, IndigeSTEAM. This is a program that provides support and mentors for Indigenous youth across the disciplines of Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Math (STEAM). The Federal government is also advancing in this direction with the new Federal Indigenous Science Division led by Myrle Ballard (ECCC, 2022). Ballard is starting with the principle of two-eyed seeing, and is researching the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples as environmental stewards, in an evolution to 3 voices and 3 eyed seeing (Ballard 2022). It’s advances like these that bring me constructive hope that new imaginings of transformative futures are on the horizon.

References

Bartlett, C., Marshall, M., & Marshall, A. (2012). Two-Eyed Seeing and other lessons learned within a co-learning journey of bringing together indigenous and mainstream knowledges and ways of knowing. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 2(4), 331–340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-012-0086-8

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). (2022, Oct. 18). Indigenous science. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/science-technology/indigenous-science.html

Frazier, T., Thmpson, C.M., Dezzanie, R.J. (2014). A framework for the development of the SERV model: A Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability model. Applied Geography 51 (2014) 158-172.

IndigeSTEAM. (ND). Indigenous perspectives in STEM & STEAM opening doors for all. https://www.indigesteam.ca/

ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability. (ND). Risk Assessment Process Framework. https://www.campbellriver.ca/docs/default-source/planning-building-development/risk-assessment-framework.pdf?sfvrsn=b6d36a08_0

IPCC. (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Summary for Policymakers. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

Institute for Integrative Science and Health. (ND). Two-Eyed Seeing. http://www.integrativescience.ca/Principles/TwoEyedSeeing/

Lewis, Jason Edward, ed. 2020. Indigenous Protocol and Artificial Intelligence Position Paper. Honolulu, Hawaiʻi: The Initiative for Indigenous Futures and the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR). https://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/id/eprint/986506/

Luksha, P., Cubista, J., Laszlo, A., Popovich, M., Ninenko, I. (2018). Educational ecosystems for societal transformation (Global Education Futures report). GEFPress, Moscow and San Francisco. Retrieved October 30, 2018, from https://futuref.org/educationfutures

Needelman, J., (2023, Mar. 14). Forget Utopia. Ignore Dystopia. Embrace Protopia! New York Times. The Bright Side. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/14/special-series/protopia-movement.html

Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). (2022, Nov). PIEVC Green Protocol: Integrating Ecosystem-based Adaptation into Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments.   https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022giz-en-pievc-green-low-res.pdf

Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., … Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Smitsman, A., Laszlo, A., & Luksha, P. (2020). Evolutionary learning ecosystems for thrivable futures: crafting and curating the conditions for future-fit education. World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution, 76(4), 214–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2020.1740075

WordBuzz: Protopia. (2011, Sep). The Futurist, 45, 2. https://www.proquest.com/magazines/wordbuzz-protopia/docview/884627225/se-2

Developing Climate Hawks

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is Red-Tailed-Hawk-Eyas.jpg
“Red-tailed Hawk Eyas at Nest” by TheBirdersReport.com is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.

If you, like me, are early in your journey as a climate advocate, then you may be, what I consider myself to be, a ‘climate eyas’. A fledgling climate advocate, excited and energetic but also fearful of the unknown, lacking the necessary skills and knowledge to spread your wings and fly. If so, then I invite you to come along with me on a journey, one that I hope, through time and experience, will mature us into powerful and effective Climate Hawks, seasoned advocates engaged in climate action.

The term Climate Hawk emerged in 2010 when a climate change writer put a question to his readers, “What should we call people who care about climate change and clean energy?” (Roberts, 2010). In a later article Roberts describes why he thinks “being a climate hawk is not easy for anyone” (2018). If you want to test his argument, then I invite you to take a few minutes to try the Financial Times Climate Game.

A Climate Hawk is a fitting metaphor that captures the zeitgeist of living in a time where strength and wisdom are needed to make necessary hard choices. It’s increasingly appearing in news headlines signaling a political stance on climate change as distinct from values of environmentalism (Joselow & Caldwell, 2022, The Energy Mix, 2022, Waldman, 2021).

When I found out that about 42% of Americans reported feeling concerned and cautious about climate change (Leiserowitz et al., 2020), I realized that there are many other fledglings out there. Through my learnings in the MACAL program I know that engagement and education have the potential to advance our collective understanding of the science behind climate change and bring those who are simply concerned and cautious into the more ‘alarmed’ stage where they are more likely to support climate policy (Leiserowitz et al., 2020), a necessary progression for a maturing Climate Hawk.

We urgently need strong climate policies and related action.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-2.png
Pakistan floods: thousands of houses destroyed, roads are submerged. Qasim Berech/Oxfam

National climate change policies follow on from international agreements set through the coming together of the United Nations. However, the most recent of these, the 27th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 27), kicked off amid a swirl of controversy, and with the UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres, stating

“we’re on a highway to climate hell with our foot still on the accelerator”

UN Secretary General, Antonio Guterres (Reuters, 2022)

For many people here in BC, who have been feeling the impacts first hand, this statement rings especially true. We need mature Climate Hawks to help work towards policy and action and one to watch here in BC is NDP leadership challenger Anjali Appadurai, who is helping to raise critical voices. Appadurai is challenging the establishment from within to do more to equitably address the impacts of climate change (The Energy Mix, 2022).

Appadurai is not alone. Criticism of the government’s handling of the 2021 wildfires, that destroyed the town of Lytton, continues from earlier criticism of the handling of events in 2017 and 2018 which resulted in an Emergency Management Memorandum of Understanding with First Nations.

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-4.png
Lytton, BC, Wildfire 2021. Image by Antti Lipponen cc 2.0

After the renewed criticism, the Provincial Government has announced the creation of the Ministry of Emergency Management and Climate Readiness.

It’s a recognition of the fact that B.C. seems to have been hit harder than most other places in Canada by climate change

Premier David Eby (quoted by Hoekstra, 2022)

The Premier’s directive to Bowen Ma, the new Minister, is that the plan must establish Indigenous peoples as “true partners and leaders” (Eby, quoted by Hoekstra, 2022). This direction aligns with that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which has taken a step towards Indigenous self determination by engaging Indigenous authors to include traditional knowledge in an assessment chapter led by them (Constable et al., 2021, P.2325).

Having passion and knowing what actions to take are necessary to becoming as effective as someone like Appadurai. However, action can be futile without the necessary educational foundation and there are many disinformation traps to watch out for. While much effort has gone into exposing sophisticated disinformation campaigns (UCS, 2015), they have not been dismantled. In addition to targeted disinformation there are still examples of fossil fuel companies implying that they are Environment and Social Governance (ESG) leaders. According to a Swiss consultancy survey, a quarter of companies worldwide are estimated to be engaging in greenwashing or green-hushing (Byrne, 2022).

An antidote to the disinformation traps is to direct people to the IPCC as the source of truth. The IPCC’s Climate Change 2021: Summary for All succinctly explains global warming as the human caused imbalance between incoming and outgoing solar energy due to the accumulating greenhouse gases. It describes advances in climate modeling that have improved the confidence in projections of increasing multiple extreme weather events, like the kind we’ve been experiencing in BC.

Using an analogy of time travel the Summary for All describes how Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) use a range of assumptions to create stories allowing us to visualize the resulting alternate futures (2021, Conners et al.).

Cartoon Cat Time Machine
Figure 1: Katherine Leitzel, Summary for all P.9 cc-nc

Despite the friendly cartoons (Figure 1) it does not sugar coat the facts.

Global warming will continue until at least about 2050 before temperatures can stabilize

Conners et al., 2021, P.9

The key learning is that we’re already locked into a certain amount of warming. This means we need to navigate through adaptation and mitigation options and balance actions with sustainability goals (Schipper et. Al., 2022, P.2666).

Engaging in Climate Change action gets complicated quickly and so continuous learning is important to the maturing Climate Hawk. Once you’re ready to move beyond the basics you’ll be ready for the technical reports which explain how balancing climate resilient development, the kind that includes transformational, equitable, and sustainable adaptation actions, alongside strong mitigation measures, greatly increases our chances of addressing the escalating impacts equitably (IPCC, 2022).

The IPCC has made learning the facts relatively straight forward but taking action, like developing adaptation plans, is much harder. A Climate Hawk should not feel like they have to know it all or do it all. Climate Services have emerged to provide assistance with developing climate strategies and adaptation plans (Canada, 2021). An example is the Northwest Territories Climate Strategy which includes a simple illustration (Figure 2) that describes how competing goals intersect (GNWT, nd) .

This image has an empty alt attribute; its file name is image-5.png
Figure 2 GNWT interconnected goals across strategies (GNWT, (nd), p. 22)

It’s a fact that, by achieving immediate and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, we could slow down global warming and, while not immediate, we could stabilize temperatures within twenty years (Conners et al., 2021). The challenge requires an enormous number of Climate Hawks working together. This brings us to another trait of maturity. The ability to build strong networks. We can do this by setting aside perceived value differences to engage and learn from each other and combine our strengths. If this concept resonates with you, or you have alternative ideas, I invite you to share your thoughts and ideas in the comments section.

References

British Columbia. Office of the Premier. News Release. New cabinet ready to take action on cost of living, health care, housing, climate. 2022, Dec. 7. https://archive.news.gov.bc.ca/releases/news_releases_2020-2024/2022PREM0097-001863.htm

Byrne, D. (2022, Oct. 26). What is green-hushing? Corporate Governance Institute.  https://www.thecorporategovernanceinstitute.com/insights/lexicon/what-is-green-hushing/

Connors, S., Berger, S., Péan, C., Bala, G., Caud, N., Chen, D., Edwards, T., Fuzzi, S., Yew Gan, T., Gomis, M., Hawkins, E., Jones, R., Kopp, R., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Maraun, D., Masson-Delmotte, V., Maycock, T., Pirani, A., Ranasinghe, R., Rogelj, J., Ruane, A.C., Szopa, S., Zhai, P.  (2021, Nov. 15). Climate Change 2021: Summary for All. Version 2. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SummaryForAll.pdf

Constable, A.J., S. Harper, J. Dawson, K. Holsman, T. Mustonen, D. Piepenburg, and B. Rost, 2022: Cross-Chapter Paper 6: Polar Regions. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2319–2368, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.023. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_CCP6.pdf

Government of Canada (2021, Dec. 17). About the Canadian Centre for Climate Services. Canadian Centre for Climate Services. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/climate-change/canadian-centre-climate-services.html

Government of Canada. (2022, Jan. 20). CMIP6 and Shared Socio-economic Pathways overview. Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios (CCDS). https://climate-scenarios.canada.ca/?page=cmip6-overview-notes#shared-socio-economic-pathways(ssps)

Government of Northwest Territories. [No Date]. 2030 NWT Climate Change Strategic Framework. https://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/sites/enr/files/resources/128-climate_change_strategic_framework_web.pdf

Hoekstra, G., (2022-Dec. 7). Premier David Eby creates new ministry to make sure B.C. is ‘ready to go’ for next disaster. Vancouver Sun. https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/david-eby-announces-bc-emergency-management-climate-ministry.

Indigenous Services Canada (2019). Emergency Management MOU _ British Columbia Assembly of First Nations. https://www.bcafn.ca/emergency-management-MOU

IPCC. (2022, Dec.). Sixth Assessment Report. Working Group II – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: Fact Sheet – North America. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/outreach/IPCC_AR6_WGII_FactSheet_NorthAmerica.pdf

Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., & Rosenthal, S. (2020). Global warming’s six Americas. Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/global-warmings-six-americas/

Lindwall, C., 2022, July 20. IPCC Climate Change Reports: Why They Matter to Everyone on the Planet. NRDC. [Web Page]. https://www.nrdc.org/stories/ipcc-climate-change-reports-why-they-matter-everyone-planet#:~:text=How%20many%20scientists%20contributed%20to,than%2066%2C000%20peer%2Dreviewed%20studies.

Reuters. (2022, Nov. 7). We’re on highway to climate hell, says U.N. chief Guterres at #COP27 climate summit. [YouTube]. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UlixqYuQAI

Roberts, D. (2010, Oct. 22). Introducing ‘Climate Hawks’. Mother Jones. https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2010/10/introducing-climate-hawks/

Roberts, D. (2010, Oct. 21). Introducing ‘Climate Hawks’. Grist. https://grist.org/article/2010-10-20-introducing-climate-hawks/

Roberts, D. (2018, Jan. 27). Reckoning with climate change will demand ugly tradeoffs from environmentalists – and everyone else: Being a climate hawk is not easy for anyone. Vox. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/27/16935382/climate-change-ugly-tradeoffs

Schipper, E.L.F., A. Revi, B.L. Preston, E.R. Carr, S.H. Eriksen, L.R. Fernandez-Carril, B.C. Glavovic, N.J.M. Hilmi, D. Ley, R. Mukerji, M.S. Muylaert de Araujo, R. Perez, S.K. Rose, and P.K. Singh, 2022: Climate Resilient Development Pathways. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2655–2807, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.027. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_Chapter18.pdf

The Energy Mix. (2022, Aug. 24). Eby ‘Frustrated’ After Climate Hawk Appadurai Enters B.C. NDP Leadership Race. https://www.theenergymix.com/2022/08/24/eby-frustrated-after-climate-hawk-appadurai-enters-b-c-ndp-leadership-race/

Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). (2015, Jun.29). The Climate Deception Dossiers: Internal Fossil Fuel Industry Memos Reveal Decades of Corporate Disinformation. https://www.ucsusa.org/resources/climate-deception-dossiers

United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). (2022, Nov. 29). What you need to know about the COP27 Loss and Damage Fund. [Web Page]. https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/story/what-you-need-know-about-cop27-loss-and-damage-fund.

Joselow, M & Caldwell, L. (2022, Aug. 18). The Climate 202: ‘The three climateers’ represent a new type of Climate Hawk on Capital Hill. Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/18/the-three-climateers-represent-new-type-climate-hawk-capitol-hill-2/

Waldman, S. (2021, July 13). Senate’s ‘quiet’ climate hawk sells a CES to moderates. E&E News. Climate Wire. https://www.eenews.net/articles/senates-quiet-climate-hawk-sells-a-ces-to-moderates/