More people, more impacts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The climate is changing, and the population of British Columbia is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has affirmed that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land and have already caused widespread changes (IPCC, 2021). To deal with the immense complexity of detecting and attributing climate change to human influence, scientists use global climate models (Emanual, 2020), which are informed by key scenario drivers, such as population, urbanization, and economic growth (Riahi et al., 2017).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
From April 2021 – April 2022, BC\u2019s population increased by 1.9% due to international (74%) and interprovincial (26%) migration (BC Stats, 2022). Natural population change (birth – death) saw an overall decrease of 1,846 people (BC Stats, 2022). Immigrants comprise almost 30% of BC\u2019s population and the majority settled in urban areas (Gifford et al., 2022). Kelowna, Chilliwack, Kamloops, and Nanaimo were ranked as four out of five of Canada\u2019s fastest growing metropolitan areas and grew 10% or more between 2016-2022 (Szeto, 2022). The federal government\u2019s Immigration Levels Plan<\/a> is anticipated to continue driving British Columbia\u2019s record levels of population growth. Between April 2021 \u2013 April 2022, BC welcomed 18% of Canada\u2019s total international immigrants, equating to 74,823 new British Columbians (BC Stats, 2022), but how many of these arrived for climatic reasons is unknown. In the next 10 – 15 years, immigration experts expect an influx of climate related migration, while acknowledging that Canada lacks a legal category to admit climate refugees (Heisler, 2022). People that are displaced by climate change impacts are not offered asylum or legal protection anywhere in the world (Watson, 2021).<\/p>\n\n\n\n One can infer that BC\u2019s population will grow even more substantially through climate refugees after taking a moment to understand Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the range of future climate impacts. GCMs are mathematical representations of earth\u2019s climate that are built on physics and include the relationships between the conservation of energy, mass, momentum, and global physical processes (Hayhoe et al., 2017). GCMs are used to project the climate system\u2019s response to total cumulative GHGs from human activities but cannot predict what future human activities will be. As such, scenarios, known as the 5 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offer narratives about future population, urbanization, education, GDP etc., and correspond to 1 of 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which represent different levels of warming (radiative forcing) (Riahi et al., 2017; Hayhoe et al., 2017). SSPs and RCPs, together, inform global climate models. At the end of the day, what matters is the total cumulative GHGs (and aerosols) in the atmosphere which directly influences the severity of climate impacts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Regional climate models (or dynamical downscaling models) are essentially global climate models (GCMs) downscaled to a finer resolution to help people understand the range of plausible climate futures in a specific area (Ranasinge et al., 2021). For example, regional climate models in southwestern BC use a 10 km grid scale and account for areas of complex topography to determine locally relevant temperature and precipitation, and the probability of extreme weather events (Sobie and Murdock, 2017). In 2016, Climate Projection for Metro Vancouver <\/a> was released as the first regional report of its kind in BC to help inform BC\u2019s most heavily populated area. Many other regional climate projection reports followed: Capital Regional District<\/a> (2017); Cowichan Valley Regional District<\/a> (2017); Vancouver Coastal Health<\/a> (2018), Climate Projections for BC Northeast Region<\/a> (2019); and Climate Projections for the Okanagan Region<\/a> (2020). These regional reports communicated that climate change will result in warmer temperatures year round, extended growing seasons, hotter summers, changes in precipitation with greater incidence of extremities resulting in drought or flooding, increased risk of wildfires and an increased risk to vulnerable populations (Metro Vancouver Regional District, 2016; Capital Regional District, 2017; Cowichan Valley Regional District, 2017; Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018; Fraser Basin Council, 2019; Regional District of North Okanagan et al., 2020). While these climate impacts are significant, and range between challenging and catastrophic (Emanual, 2020), British Columbia is geographically positioned in a temperate climate with social security nets that don\u2019t exist in the global south. It is assumed that in order to support BC\u2019s aging population and economic growth, BC will continue to welcome immigrants (including climate refugees regardless of a classification). Between 2010 \u2013 2020, BC\u2019s demographic cohort of those 65 and older grew by 48%, compared to the overall population growth of 15% (Office of the Seniors Advocate, 2021). The majority of both seniors and immigrants live in the Vancouver Island Health and Interior Health regions (Office of the Seniors Advocate, 2021; Gifford et al., 2022). Climate change impacts are expected to exacerbate the impact on vulnerable and marginalized populations, such as low-income seniors and immigrants. Of the 619 fatalities during BC\u2019s 2021 heat dome, 67% were over 70 years old, 56% lived alone, and 61% were located in low-income neighborhoods (Government of Canada, 2022). As it pertains to heat and human health, complex heat stress indices combine extreme high temperatures and high humidity (Ranasinghe et al., 2021) which is compounded the urban heat island effect and this contributes to the overall vulnerability of densely populated areas (Meerow and Stults 2016).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Consider this analysis as a red flag for policymakers in BC. We know that the climate is changing, we know it\u2019s already bad, and its likely going to get a lot worse if we don\u2019t shift our current GHG trajectory. Socioeconomic scenarios that include population growth help to inform global climate models and regional climate models. The global challenge of climate change is being felt at the regional level, where population growth and energy use are inextricably linked.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/p>\n\n\n\n References<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n BC Stats (2022, Jun 30). Quarterly Report Highlights. Issue 22-01. https:\/\/www2.gov.bc.ca\/assets\/gov\/data\/statistics\/people-population- community\/population\/quarterly_population_highlights.pdf<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Capital Regional District (2017). Climate Projections for the Capital Region. 66 pp. https:\/\/www.crd.bc.ca\/docs\/default-source\/climate-action-pdf\/reports\/2017-07-17_climateprojectionsforthecapitalregion_final.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Cowichan Valley Regional District. (2017). Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District. 46 pp. https:\/\/www.cvrd.ca\/DocumentCenter\/View\/81884\/Climate-Projections-Report<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Emanuel, K. (2020). Climate Science, Risk & Solutions: Climate Science for Everyone. https:\/\/climateprimer.mit.edu\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fraser Basin Council. (2019). Climate Projections for BC Northeast Region. 48 pp. https:\/\/www.fraserbasin.bc.ca\/_Library\/CCAQ\/fbc_ne_climatereport_web.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Gifford, R., Brown, C., Baron, C., Clement, D., Melnychuk, N., Nelson, H., Sales, L. and Spittlehouse, D. (2022). British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report, (ed.) F.J. Warren, N. Lulham and D.S. Lemmen; Government of Canada. Chapter 5 \u2014 Regional Perspectives Report (changingclimate.ca)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Government of Canada (2022). Canada\u2019s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. Canada\u2019s National Adaptation Strategy \u2013 Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Heisler, J. (2022, February 15). Canada Braces for Prospect of Future Climate Refugees. VOA. https:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/canada-braces-for-prospect-of-future-climate- refugees\/6443121.html<\/p>\n\n\n\n Hayhoe, K., Edmonds, J., Kopp, R.E., LeGrande, A.N., Sanderson, B.M., Wehner, M.F. and Wuebbles, D.J. 2017: Climate models, scenarios, and projections. In D.J. Wuebbles, D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (Eds.), Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I<\/em> (pp. 133-160). https:\/\/science2017.globalchange.gov\/chapter\/4\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Lower Mainland Facilities Management. (2018). Moving Towards Climate Resilient Health Facilities for Vancouver Coastal Health. 68 pp. https:\/\/etccdi.pacificclimate.org\/sites\/default\/files\/publications\/VCH_ClimateReport_Final.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Meerow, S., & Stults, M. (2016). Comparing conceptualizations of urban climate resilience in theory and practice. Sustainability<\/em>, 8<\/em>(7), 701.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Office of the Seniors Advocate British Columbia. (2021). Monitoring Seniors Services. 7th<\/sup> ed. https:\/\/www.seniorsadvocatebc.ca\/app\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2022\/02\/MSS-Report-2021.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A.S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J., Sylla, M.B., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., & Zaaboul, R. (2021). Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. P\u00e9an, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelek\u00e7i, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change<\/em>, (pp. 1767\u20131926). Cambridge University Press. https:\/\/doi:10.1017\/9781009157896.014<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O\u2019Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebik, K., Hasegawaf, T., Havlika, P., Humpen\u00f6derc, F., Da Silvai, L. A., Smithd, S., Stehfestb, E., Bosettii,j, V., Eomd, J., Gernaatb, D., Masuif, T., Rogelja, J., Streflerc, J., Droueti,j, L., Kreya, V., Ludererc, G., Harmsenb, M., Takahashif, K., Baumstarkc, L., Doelmanb, J. C., Kainumaf, M., Klimonta, Z., Marangonii,j, G., Lotze-Campenc, H., Obersteinera, M., Tabeaun, A., & Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change,<\/em> 42, 153\u2013168. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Regional District North Okanagan, Regional District of Central Okanagan, Regional District of Okanagan Similkameen, Pinna Sustainability. (2020). Climate Projections for the Okanagan Region. 64 pp. https:\/\/www.rdno.ca\/sites\/default\/files\/2021-04\/200303_OK_ClimateReport_Final.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Sobie, S.R., & Murdock, T. (2017). High-Resolution Statistical Downscaling in Southwestern British Columbia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56<\/em>, 1625-1641. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1175\/JAMC-D-16-0287.1<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Szeto, W. (2022, February 9). The fastest growing population centres in Canada are in B.C. \u2014 but they’re not in Metro Vancouver. <\/em>CBC News. https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/canada\/british-columbia\/census-data- population-growth-british-columbia-interior-1.6344994<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n