Often, people ask me about climate change and the MACAL program. They ask. But they don’t always want to hear the answer. The question comes with an unspoken request, please don’t tell me too much, I can’t handle it. Truthfully, I can barely handle it myself some days. This is why, collectively, we need to care. I mean really, truly care in a way befitting a crisis of this magnitude. 

Many of us suffer from exceptionalism which can lead to complacency. This idea that the climate crisis is a problem for some but not necessarily for us, either as individuals or groups (Exceptionalism, 2022). This lack of proximity makes it easier to assume less individual responsibility in both the causes and solutions to the climate crisis (Bennet, 2021). We tell ourselves we are not to blame, there is nothing we can do. And in some ways, this sense of exceptionalism is based in truth. Of course, the climate data itself does not discriminate, but the contributing factors absolutely do. For example, prosperous nations contribute a substantially greater amount of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions yet are protected from much of the suffering experienced by poorer nations, and poorer people within nations (Boyd, 2019); thus, reaffirming a lack of proximity and a sense of exceptionalism for those shielded. However, no living being on this planet is exempted from the effects of climate change. Our actions as a species are what matters, now more than ever. As aptly summarized by contemporary science fiction writer, Kim Stanley Robinson (2020), “all of us succeed or none of us are safe”. (13:35:07).

“all of us succeed or none of us are safe”

– Kim Stanley Robinson

The impact of human actions cannot be understated. Two of the main themes that have resonated with me from CALS500 (Climate Science) are: humans are undoubtedly the cause of climate change, and human actions determine the fate of much of the life on this planet. This information is not new to me but rather reinforced learning from the program to date. It is, however, more sobering to learn the climate data through the lens of past, current, and future impacts of human behaviour. 

The impact of humans is the very first statement in the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (2021), clearly stating, “it is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred” (p. 4). We have already warmed the planet 1.08^°C (best estimate) from a pre-industrial baseline (IPCC, 2021). To put that into context, our goal is to limit warming to 1.5^°C, or at least well below 2°C of total global warming from pre-industrial times (UNFCC, n.d.).  As the adage goes, to know where you are going, you need to know where you’ve been. We have been over 1°C cooler in the not-so-distant past. So where are we going? 

Future projections are determined by climate models, which can be understood as advanced global models which utilize basic scientific principles to simulate the Earth’s climate (Hausfather, 2019). Impressive in their own right but equally as fascinating are the scenarios used as inputs that drive these projections. There are five scenarios that make educated assumptions about human behaviour (including education, land use, population growth, to name a few) that range from low to high emission possibilities (IPCC, 2021). The climate data gives us insight into the physical world, our past, and our potential futures. But human behaviour is what determines where we go from here. The most advanced models imaginable cannot halt warming, nor can wishfully thinking it away. The power is in our choices. That thought blows my mind. Our collective choices are literally what matter. 

That is, in many ways, the most overwhelming part. The physical science is interesting albeit, at times, profoundly depressing. Yet, surprisingly, buried within the climate science, there is hope. Hope of avoiding further catastrophes. Hope in knowing that once we halt carbon dioxide emissions to net zero, the temperature will stabilize (Arias et al., 2021). The thought of reaching the masses in a way the elicits urgency and action is what feels insurmountable. 

Until recently. 

Two things have shifted my perspective and brought with them optimism. Effective communication and social tipping points. And these go hand in hand. Effective communication goes far beyond dumping information and expecting change to happen miraculously. It involves understanding the values of your audience and knowing how the world makes sense to them as these values influence how we all interpret, accept and act upon information (Moser, 2016). Tools such as narratives, art, and media are used to connect with audiences and evoke emotions to overcome the barriers of relaying scientific information, pre-existing biases, and complacency (Moser, 2016). By coupling the growing foundation of climate communication with the idea we are not aiming to connect with 100 percent of the population (although, of course that would be nice), influencing human behaviour seems possible. 

Why not all the people, all the time? Because of tipping points. Not the tipping points of climate change which are critical thresholds that push climate systems into different, often irreversible and catastrophic states (Lindwall, 2022). The social tipping points of social change that suggest a committed minority group within a population can reach a critical threshold that rapidly creates a new balance with altered norms and behaviours (Centola et al., 2018; Otto et al., 2020). A study in 2018 by Centola et al., found that the critical threshold to reach a social tipping point was 25% and that the most important characteristic in the minority population was commitment to their cause. There is increasing interest in social tipping points and their potential to effect rapid change and how further understanding and assessment can be gained (Stadelmann-Steffen et al., 2021). The combination of effective science communication with the potential of a small but dedicated minority wielding the power to change the accepted norms is inspiring. 

Imagine a teeter-totter with those concerned about climate change on one end, those dismissive on the other, and the entirety of the spectrum in between. Slowly, we shift people to the concerned side starting with those nearest to us, then those beside them, and so on. Listening as much as talking, connecting with those with whom we share the space. As we go down the line, people shift incrementally closer. It is seemingly insignificant change until, suddenly, the tipping point is reached and the concerned side of the teeter-tooter is overfilled and our feet are all planted firmly on the ground, together.       

Every person on that teeter-totter sees the world around them differently than their neighbour but that does not prevent their combined weight from tipping them. The critical mass made by incremental movements requires a unity that extends beyond geographical, religious, ideological, and professional boundaries. For many of us who have lived in societies compromised of segregation and boxes within which to fit, it is difficult to fully comprehend what that even means. But imagine the possibilities.

“I am history, now make me good“

– Kim Stanley Robinson

Words that have been echoing through my head lately are those of Kim Stanley Robinson (2020), “I happen in the present, but I am told only in the future […] I am history, now make me good” (14:04:21). To me, making history “good” looks like creating a space founded on similar goals but with open minds to different voices, beliefs, and backgrounds. The humility of each of us realizing that we cannot tip the scales with our weight alone while remembering that our small shifts, collectively, hold limitless power. A history to be revered. 

How do you think we make this history good?

---

Above cover image by New York Zoological Society, 1963

References

Arias, P. A., Bellouin, N., Coppola, E., Jones, R. G., Krinner, G., Marotzke, J., Naik, V., Palmer, M. D., Plattner, G.-K., Rogelj, J., Rojas, M., Sillmann, J., Storelvmo, T., Thorne, P. W., Trewin, B., Achuta Rao, K., Adhikary, B., Allan, R. P., Armour, K., Bala, G., Barimalala, R., Berger, S., Canadell, J. G., Cassou, C., Cherchi, A., Collins, W., Collins, W. D., Connors, S., Corti, S. D., Cruz, F., Dentener, F. J., Dereczynski, C., Di Luca, A., Diongue Niang, A., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Dosio, A., Douville, H., Engelbrecht, F., Eyring, V., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Fox-Kemper, B., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Fyfe, J. C., Gillett, N. P., Goldfarb, L., Gorodetskaya, I., Gutierrez, J. M., Hamdi, R., Hawkins, E., Hewitt, H. T., Hope, P., Islam, A. S., Jones, C., Kaufman, D. S., Kopp, R. E., Kosaka, Y., Kossin, J., Krakovska, S., Lee, J.-Y., Li, J., Mauritsen, T., Maycock, T. K., Meinshausen, M., Min, S. K., Monteiro, P. M. S., Ngo-Duc, T., Otto, F., Pinto, I., Pirani, A., Raghavan, K., Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Samset, B. H., Sathyendranath, S., Seneviratne, S. I., Sörensson, A. A., Szopa, S., Takayabu, I., Tréguier, A.-M., van den Hurk, B., Vautard, R., von Schuckmann, K., Zaehle, S., Zhang, X., & Zickfeld, K. (2021). Technical summary. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate change 2021: The physical science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp. 33−144). Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/ 

Bennet, A., Hatch, C., & Pike, C. (2021). Climate messaging that works. Climate Narratives Initiative. https://climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Climate%20Messaging%20that%20Works%20-%20Talking%20Energy%20Transition%20and%20Climate%20Change%20in%20Canada.pdf

Boyd, D. (2019). Safe climate: a report of the special rapporteur on human rights and the environment. United Nations [UN] Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner. Report to UN General Assembly. https://documents-dds-ny.un.org/doc/UNDOC/GEN/N19/216/42/PDF/N1921642.pdf?OpenElement

Centola, D., Becker, J., Brackbill, D., & Baronchelli, A. (2018). Experimental evidence for tipping points in social convention. Science, 360(6393), 1116–1119. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aas8827

Exceptionalism. (2022, March 18). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exceptionalism

Hausfather, Z. (2019). CMIP6: The next generation of climate models explained. Carbon Brief. https://www.carbonbrief.org/cmip6-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-explained/

IPCC. (2021). Summary for policymakers. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S. L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M. I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J. B. R. Matthews, T. K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate change 2021: The physical science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp. 1−32). Cambridge University Press. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ ar6/wg1/ 

Lindwall, C. (2022). Climate tipping points are closer than once thought. NRDC (National Resources Defense Council). https://www.nrdc.org/stories/climate-tipping-points-are-closer-once-thought

Moser, S. C. (2016). Reflections on climate change communication research and practice in the second decade of the 21st century: What more is there to say? WIREs Climate Change, (May/June), 345-369. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.403

New York Zoological Society. (1963). The most dangerous animal in the world [Online image]. Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Most_Dangerous_Animal_in_the_World

Otto, I. M., Donges, J. F., Cremades, R., Bhowmik, A., Hewitt, R. J., Lucht, W., Rockström, J., Allerberger, F., McCaffrey, M., Doe, S. S. P., Lenferna, A., Morán, N., van Vuuren, D. P., Schellnhuber, H. J., & Environmental, S. (2020). Social tipping dynamics for stabilizing earth’s climate by 2050. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(5).

Robinson, K. S. (2020). The ministry for the future. (J. Fitzgerald, F. Al-Kaisi, R. De Ocampo, G. Bennett, R. Corkhill, B. Kreinik, N. Souk, N. Massoud, J. Abbott Pratt, I. Del Castillo, V. Adam). [Audiobook]. Audible. https://www.audible.ca/pd/The-Ministry-for-the-Future-Audiobook/B08K2HDD77?qid=1671169137&sr=1-1&ref=a_search_c3_lProduct_1_1&pf_rd_p=b278ed0a-c3b2-4491-808c-7cb2190a487c&pf_rd_r=YYTJGTE63ZSS5CYX0QPN

Stadelmann-Steffen, I., Eder, C., Harring, N., Spilker, G., & Katsanidou, A. (2021). A framework for social tipping in climate change mitigation: what we can learn about social tipping dynamics from the chlorofluorocarbons phase-out. Energy Research & Social Science, 82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102307

UNFCC. (n.d.). The Paris agreement. What is the Paris agreement? https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement