This fall, I embarked on a journey to learn more about Climate Science, Impacts, and Services (CAL 500), through the Master of Arts in Climate Action Leadership at Royal Roads University. Through-out the course, the quality of instruction and depth of technical insights about climate modelling, impacts and projections was empowering. While knowledge is power, once you know, you can’t unknow. The gravity of the climate crisis became even more pronounced by reading a cross section of peer reviewed scientific literature that illuminated an uncertain future.

CAL 500 kicked off with a lecture on climate grief. At the time, I was confused. Was I supposed to be grieving? I’ve been in “eco-holes” before and they are more paralyzing than motivating. Through-out most of the course, I felt ok, fully aware that parts of BC were in a stage 4 drought until mid November and that the changes to hydrology is a climate projection coming into fruition (Capital Regional District, 2017). During the course, an unprecedented forest fire in October near a family’s residence made me (1) alarmed and (2) aware how regional climate models suggest how normal this could be under our current emissions trajectory. I accepted that thanks to radiative forcing (pgs.27-28) from increasing cumulative GHGs in the atmosphere, an extended fire season (pgs.59, 65) is in the near future, in my lifetime, and in my daughter’s lifetime (Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018).

Many young people today feel like climate change has robbed them of their future (Ritchie, 2021). I think about this considering the present and future my daughter is inheriting. In her first year of life, she experienced a large area of intense scorching heat trapped in the atmosphere, an event known as a heat dome (Bratu et al., 2022). She was too young to understand how this event amplified climate-related anxiety amoung many British Columbians (Bratu et al., 2022), including her mother. This unusual heatwave from late June/July 2021 caused failures of power grids, widespread wildfires and over 1400 total deaths (Mo et al., 2022). Five months later, a band of concentrated water vapour delivered an atmospheric river in the lower troposphere (Mo et al., 2022) and hit southern BC. Thanks to CAL 500, I understood how a large ensemble of simulations could determine that human-induced climate change increased the probability of this 1 in 50-year event by up to an estimated 330% (Gillet et al., 2022). The Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives found that the 2021 heat dome, wildfires and atmospheric river in BC resulted in a cumulative cost between $10.6 and $17.1 billion, which is equivalent to 3–5% of provincial GDP (Lee and Parfitt, 2022). Internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that by 2030, approximately 250,000 people will die annually due to climate-induced heat stress, malaria, diarrhea, and malnutrition (Boyd, 2019). At that time my daughter will be 10 years old. Debt and greater risk of death is in the future.

Over and over, it is said that those who are least responsible for climate change will suffer the most. This includes very young people and all others that contribute little to GHGs. The poorest half of the world’s population create about 10% of global GHGs, where-as the richest 10% are responsible for producing half of all GHGs (Boyd, 2019). l liken this to war. Like war, the greatest human suffering occurs to those with a socioeconomic status that are unable to flee or safely adapt. Both climate change and war are violent; climate change is a slow burn – a gradual form of violence through species extinction, extreme heat, food shortages etc., where-as war is abruptly violent. Both involve domination, either dominating each other or the natural world, forgetting that we need both to co-exist, to exist. We are instructed to “fight climate change,” but what are we really fighting – ourselves, corporations, governments? And how do we move beyond fighting to finding solutions, when physical fighting, politic-ing and greed gets in the way? The war in Ukraine has caused an estimated 33 million tonnes of CO₂ and rebuilding Ukraine will cause significantly more emissions, up to 49 million tonnes of CO₂ (Rannard, 2022). I feel this war in my bones, in my bloodlines and am deeply disturbed. I would say parts of the world are edging towards realizing Socio-economic Scenario Pathway (SSP) 3: Regional Rivalry, where nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, drive countries to focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own borders (Riahi, 2017). So, while COP27 offered a glimmer of hope by negotiating who pays for the irreversible damage caused by climate change in developing nations (Rannard, 2017), I think the bigger issue is that other more immediate events are stealing the headlines to emphasize GHG mitigation now. A major climate catastrophe gains attention for a moment, maybe a few weeks, but what we really need is a climate lens that’s not based on grief and tragedy, because based on how I feel in this moment – it’s not super motivating.

I gained a considerable amount of useful and applicable knowledge during CAL 500 and understand now why it kicked off with a discussion on climate grief. I feel this grief, and it also encompasses grief about the inertia and other suffering that can distract us from doing work to reduce emissions, restructure the economy, and shift our values now. For us, for you, for my daughter.

References

Beusch, L., Nauels, A., Gudmundsson, L. et al. Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years. Commun Earth Environ 3, 7 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6

Bratu, A., Card, K., Closson, K., Aran, N., Marshall, C., Clayton, S., Gislason, M., Smiji, H., Martin, G., Lem, M., Logie, C., Takaro, T., Hogg, R. (2022). The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment. The Journal of Climate Change and Health, 6, 100116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2022.100116

Boyd, D. (2019). Safe Climate: A Report of the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment. UN Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner. Report to UN General Assembly, A/74/161.

https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/Documents/Issues/Environment/SREnvironment/Report.pdf

Capital Regional District (2017). Climate Projections for the Capital Region.

2017-07- 17_climateprojectionsforthecapitalregion_final.pdf (crd.bc.ca)

Emanuel, K. (2020). Climate Science, Risk & Solutions: Climate Science for

Everyone. https://climateprimer.mit.edu/

Gillett, N. P., Cannon, A. J., Malinina, E., Schnorbus, M., Anslow, F., Sun, Q., Castellan, A. (2022). Human influence on the 2021 British Columbia floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, 100441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100441 

Lee, M., & Parfitt, M. A climate reckoning: the economic costs of BC’s extreme weather in 2021. Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives.

Mo, R., Lin, H. & Vitart, F. An anomalous warm-season trans-Pacific atmospheric river linked to the 2021 western North America heatwave. Commun Earth Environ 3, 127 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00459-w

Rannard, G. (2022, November 14). COP27: War causing huge release of climate warming gas, claims Ukraine. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63625693

Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebik, K., Hasegawaf, T., Havlika, P., Humpenöderc, F., Da Silvai, L. A., Smithd, S., Stehfestb, E., Bosettii,j, V., Eomd, J., Gernaatb, D., Masuif, T., Rogelja, J., Streflerc, J., Droueti,j, L., Kreya, V., Ludererc, G., Harmsenb, M., Takahashif, K., Baumstarkc, L., Doelmanb, J. C., Kainumaf, M., Klimonta, Z., Marangonii,j, G., Lotze-Campenc, H., Obersteinera, M., Tabeaun, A., & Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Ritchie, H. (2021, November 1) WIRED article. Stop telling kids they’ll die from climate change. https://www.wired.com/story/stop-telling-kids-theyll-die-from-climate-change/

Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018: Moving towards climate resilient health facilities for Vancouver Coastal Health, Project report, 86pp. https://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/VCH_ClimateReport_Final.pdf

Recall: “our house is on fire.” 

I’m here to tell you it’s still burning.

Consider the underwater cabinet meeting held in the Maldives 14 years ago.

Sea level has risen over 50 mm since then.

Remember when there were 12 years to avoid catastrophic climate change, reduce emissions by 50% and make unprecedented changes in all aspects of society? 

We have 7 years now.

The three stories above had great impact during their moment in the headlines. Given the complexity of the climate crisis, there needs to be a balance of shock and awe in order to inspire the change required. Shock is memorable and awe is motivating.

Now fast forward to fall 2022, where Hurricane Ian is capturing global attention. Scientists, Michael Wehner and Kevin Reed embraced a teachable moment when communicating climate change to a mass  audience during Hurricane Ian. Using a model the team previously built to study hurricanes, they were able to infer that climate change, which is contributing to warmer ocean temperatures and more moisture in the atmosphere, resulted in 10% more rainfall during this hurricane than anticipated. After a review of about a dozen related news articles, I found one that included a call to action. On September 30, 2022, the BBC reminded readers that Hurricane Ian is a “signal” that we quickly and collectively need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions which contribute to stronger storms. This linkage is important because people can identify with and understand the issue of climate change, when climate change consequences are real and solutions are communicated (Cross et al., 2015). Some of the news articles planted seeds of doubt by using words such as “instant study” in the headline “or not peer-reviewed” in the first paragraph while later explaining how a peer reviewed model was used for the simulation and often quoting other scientists in agreements. As Howarth et al. noted in their 2020 article about effectively communicating climate science; emphasizing scientific agreement is key, so too is plain language and consideration of the target audience. 

Given the need for plain language and helping audiences understand complex issues, when speaking about climate change, using metaphors or analogies can help. Given the ubiquitous nature of cooking rice, the following analogy for example, is a plain way to communicate weather events, as influenced by climate change:

“When cooking rice on the stovetop, the difference between a perfect pot and one that boils over is a small adjustment to the dial, leading to more heat input to the system and potentially quite the mess. This is analogous to weather events, as the energy contained within air increases with temperature, as does the water vapor capacity. The output of that system that we experience is elevated levels of wind and rain.”

                                                                                                          B.McIntyre, P.Eng., 2022

Another communication approach that draws on scientific consensus from  Canada’s Changing Climate Report states:

“…. the annual highest daily temperature that currently occurs once every 20 years, on average, will become a once in 5-year event by mid-century under a low emission scenario (a four-fold increase in frequency) and a once in 2-year event by mid-century under a high emission scenario (a ten-fold increase in frequency). In the future, higher temperatures will contribute to an increased risk of extreme fire weather across much of Canada.” 

 Bush et al., 2019

The “so what” in both statements cultivates understanding which is a source of empowerment to take climate action. Bush et al. date links increased temperature to an increased risk of extreme fire and this can be strengthened further by citing local, recent examples of heat domes and corresponding fire events that cost lives and lost infrastructure. Furthermore, it’s estimated that by 2025, a 0.35% increase in Canadian income taxes will be needed to cover government spending on climate related damages (Sawyer, 2017). Climate change communications are most effective when the personal details are known – how these impacts will affect everyday life from our ability to see the horizon to the jingle of change in our pockets.

Let’s now turn our attention from shock to awe. Awe as in awesome people everywhere working hard on climate solutions.  In their 2015 paper, News Media and Climate Politics, Cross et al. found that how the news media communicates climate change can make or break civic engagement. Cynicism, in particular, is is toxic to the climate movement and can paralyze those that are concerned or alarmed about climate change but feel powerless to make a difference because all they see in the media are governments failing. Therefore, Cross’s team urges the proliferation of success stories about climate politics, entrepreneurial activism, everyday heroism at the local level and the positive cause and effect of political engagement. Positive framing works. Shifting our focus from the problem to the solution is motivating and will propel us forward (Moser et al., 2017). 

It’s important to be aware of the outcome to avoid, but let’s balance this with the vision we do want. 

Headline: “MACAL students stack W’s – winning at climate solutions”

References

Bush, E., Gillet, N., Bonsal, B., Cohen, S. Derksen, C., Flato, G., Greenan, B., Shepherd, M., and Zhang, X. (2019). Canada’s Changing Climate Report: Executive Summary. Environment and Climate Change Canada. https://changingclimate.ca/CCCR2019/

BBC News. (October 17, 200). Maldives cabinet makes a splash. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8311838.stm

Cross, K., Gunster, S., Piotrowski, M., & Daub, S. (2015). News media and climate politics: Civic engagement and political efficacy in a climate of reluctant cynicism. Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, BC Office.

Howarth, C., Parsons, L., & Thew, H. (2020). Effectively Communicating Climate Science Beyond Academia: Harnessing the Heterogeneity of Climate Knowledge. One Earth, 2(4), 320–324. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2020.04.001

Iowa State University. (2019) Address at World Economic Forum: Our House Is On Fire – Jan 25, 2019. https://awpc.cattcenter.iastate.edu/2019/12/02/address-at-davos-our-house-is-on-fire-jan-25-2019/

IPCC, 2018: Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3-24. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001.

Lindsey, R. (April 19, 2022). Climate Change: Global Sea Level. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-sea-level

McIntyre, B. Personal Communication, October 2, 2022.

Moser, S., Coffee, J., and Sevile A. (2017) Rising to the Challenge, Together: A Review and Critical Assessment of the State of the US Climate Adaptation Field. Kresge Foundation, 106 pp.

Sawyer, D. (2021). Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in 

What is a climate leader?

This ain’t no theatre,

The world is dying, why aren’t more people trying?

Fracking, whacking trees, stacking dollar bills so high –

You can barely see the smoke-filled skies

Where… is the hope?

Don’t despair, its there

Its this tiny seed, inside of me, inside of you

Why we 10 + 2 are here

Come Robin, Come Elizabeth, Come Ben, Jule, Julie, Dani, 

Come Pato, Come Niall, Ben, Deanna, Kelly

Collectively, we are transdisciplinary

We are righting our relations

We are laughing, healing, crying

But most of all, we are trying

We are climate leaders

More people, more impacts.

The climate is changing, and the population of British Columbia is growing. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has affirmed that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean, and land and have already caused widespread changes (IPCC, 2021). To deal with the immense complexity of detecting and attributing climate change to human influence, scientists use global climate models (Emanual, 2020), which are informed by key scenario drivers, such as population, urbanization, and economic growth (Riahi et al., 2017).

From April 2021 – April 2022, BC’s population increased by 1.9% due to international (74%) and interprovincial (26%) migration (BC Stats, 2022). Natural population change (birth – death) saw an overall decrease of 1,846 people (BC Stats, 2022). Immigrants comprise almost 30% of BC’s population and the majority settled in urban areas (Gifford et al., 2022). Kelowna, Chilliwack, Kamloops, and Nanaimo were ranked as four out of five of Canada’s fastest growing metropolitan areas and grew 10% or more between 2016-2022 (Szeto, 2022). The federal government’s Immigration Levels Plan is anticipated to continue driving British Columbia’s record levels of population growth. Between April 2021 – April 2022, BC welcomed 18% of Canada’s total international immigrants, equating to 74,823 new British Columbians (BC Stats, 2022), but how many of these arrived for climatic reasons is unknown. In the next 10 – 15 years, immigration experts expect an influx of climate related migration, while acknowledging that Canada lacks a legal category to admit climate refugees (Heisler, 2022). People that are displaced by climate change impacts are not offered asylum or legal protection anywhere in the world (Watson, 2021).

One can infer that BC’s population will grow even more substantially through climate refugees after taking a moment to understand Global Climate Models (GCMs) and the range of future climate impacts. GCMs are mathematical representations of earth’s climate that are built on physics and include the relationships between the conservation of energy, mass, momentum, and global physical processes (Hayhoe et al., 2017). GCMs are used to project the climate system’s response to total cumulative GHGs from human activities but cannot predict what future human activities will be. As such, scenarios, known as the 5 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offer narratives about future population, urbanization, education, GDP etc., and correspond to 1 of 4 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), which represent different levels of warming (radiative forcing) (Riahi et al., 2017; Hayhoe et al., 2017). SSPs and RCPs, together, inform global climate models. At the end of the day, what matters is the total cumulative GHGs (and aerosols) in the atmosphere which directly influences the severity of climate impacts.  

Regional climate models (or dynamical downscaling models) are essentially global climate models (GCMs) downscaled to a finer resolution to help people understand the range of plausible climate futures in a specific area (Ranasinge et al., 2021). For example, regional climate models in southwestern BC use a 10 km grid scale and account for areas of complex topography to determine locally relevant temperature and precipitation, and the probability of extreme weather events (Sobie and Murdock, 2017). In 2016, Climate Projection for Metro Vancouver  was released as the first regional report of its kind in BC to help inform BC’s most heavily populated area. Many other regional climate projection reports followed: Capital Regional District (2017); Cowichan Valley Regional District (2017); Vancouver Coastal Health (2018), Climate Projections for BC Northeast Region (2019); and Climate Projections for the Okanagan Region (2020). These regional reports communicated that climate change will result in warmer temperatures year round, extended growing seasons, hotter summers, changes in precipitation with greater incidence of extremities resulting in drought or flooding, increased risk of wildfires and an increased risk to vulnerable populations (Metro Vancouver Regional District, 2016; Capital Regional District, 2017; Cowichan Valley Regional District, 2017; Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018; Fraser Basin Council, 2019; Regional District of North Okanagan et al., 2020). While these climate impacts are significant, and range between challenging and catastrophic (Emanual, 2020), British Columbia is geographically positioned in a temperate climate with social security nets that don’t exist in the global south. It is assumed that in order to support BC’s aging population and economic growth, BC will continue to welcome immigrants (including climate refugees regardless of a classification). Between 2010 – 2020, BC’s demographic cohort of those 65 and older grew by 48%, compared to the overall population growth of 15% (Office of the Seniors Advocate, 2021). The majority of both seniors and immigrants live in the Vancouver Island Health and Interior Health regions (Office of the Seniors Advocate, 2021; Gifford et al., 2022). Climate change impacts are expected to exacerbate the impact on vulnerable and marginalized populations, such as low-income seniors and immigrants. Of the 619 fatalities during BC’s 2021 heat dome, 67% were over 70 years old, 56% lived alone, and 61% were located in low-income neighborhoods (Government of Canada, 2022). As it pertains to heat and human health, complex heat stress indices combine extreme high temperatures and high humidity (Ranasinghe et al., 2021) which is compounded the urban heat island effect and this contributes to the overall vulnerability of densely populated areas (Meerow and Stults 2016).

Consider this analysis as a red flag for policymakers in BC. We know that the climate is changing, we know it’s already bad, and its likely going to get a lot worse if we don’t shift our current GHG trajectory. Socioeconomic scenarios that include population growth help to inform global climate models and regional climate models. The global challenge of climate change is being felt at the regional level, where population growth and energy use are inextricably linked.

References

BC Stats (2022, Jun 30). Quarterly Report Highlights. Issue 22-01. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/data/statistics/people-population- community/population/quarterly_population_highlights.pdf 

Capital Regional District (2017). Climate Projections for the Capital Region. 66 pp. https://www.crd.bc.ca/docs/default-source/climate-action-pdf/reports/2017-07-17_climateprojectionsforthecapitalregion_final.pdf

Cowichan Valley Regional District. (2017). Climate Projections for the Cowichan Valley Regional District. 46 pp. https://www.cvrd.ca/DocumentCenter/View/81884/Climate-Projections-Report

Emanuel, K. (2020). Climate Science, Risk & Solutions: Climate Science for Everyone. https://climateprimer.mit.edu/

Fraser Basin Council. (2019). Climate Projections for BC Northeast Region. 48 pp. https://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/_Library/CCAQ/fbc_ne_climatereport_web.pdf

Gifford, R., Brown, C., Baron, C., Clement, D., Melnychuk, N., Nelson, H., Sales, L. and Spittlehouse, D. (2022). British Columbia Chapter in Canada in a Changing Climate: Regional Perspectives Report, (ed.) F.J. Warren, N. Lulham and D.S. Lemmen; Government of Canada. Chapter 5 — Regional Perspectives Report (changingclimate.ca)

Government of Canada (2022). Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy: Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy. Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy – Building Resilient Communities and a Strong Economy

Heisler, J. (2022, February 15). Canada Braces for Prospect of Future Climate Refugees. VOA. https://www.voanews.com/a/canada-braces-for-prospect-of-future-climate- refugees/6443121.html

Hayhoe, K., Edmonds, J., Kopp, R.E., LeGrande, A.N., Sanderson, B.M., Wehner, M.F. and Wuebbles, D.J. 2017: Climate models, scenarios, and projections. In D.J. Wuebbles, D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (Eds.), Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I (pp. 133-160). https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/4/

Lower Mainland Facilities Management. (2018). Moving Towards Climate Resilient Health Facilities for Vancouver Coastal Health. 68 pp. https://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/VCH_ClimateReport_Final.pdf

Meerow, S., & Stults, M. (2016). Comparing conceptualizations of urban climate resilience in theory and practice. Sustainability, 8(7), 701.

Office of the Seniors Advocate British Columbia. (2021). Monitoring Seniors Services. 7^th ed. https://www.seniorsadvocatebc.ca/app/uploads/sites/4/2022/02/MSS-Report-2021.pdf

Ranasinghe, R., Ruane, A. C., Vautard, R., Arnell, N., Coppola, E., Cruz, F. A., Dessai, S., Islam, A.S., Rahimi, M., Ruiz Carrascal, D., Sillmann, J., Sylla, M.B., Tebaldi, C., Wang, W., & Zaaboul, R. (2021). Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (pp. 1767–1926). Cambridge University Press. https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.014.

Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., Ebik, K., Hasegawaf, T., Havlika, P., Humpenöderc, F., Da Silvai, L. A., Smithd, S., Stehfestb, E., Bosettii,j, V., Eomd, J., Gernaatb, D., Masuif, T., Rogelja, J., Streflerc, J., Droueti,j, L., Kreya, V., Ludererc, G., Harmsenb, M., Takahashif, K., Baumstarkc, L., Doelmanb, J. C., Kainumaf, M., Klimonta, Z., Marangonii,j, G., Lotze-Campenc, H., Obersteinera, M., Tabeaun, A., & Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 

Regional District North Okanagan, Regional District of Central Okanagan, Regional District of Okanagan Similkameen, Pinna Sustainability. (2020). Climate Projections for the Okanagan Region. 64 pp. https://www.rdno.ca/sites/default/files/2021-04/200303_OK_ClimateReport_Final.pdf

Sobie, S.R., & Murdock, T. (2017). High-Resolution Statistical Downscaling in Southwestern British Columbia. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 56, 1625-1641. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0287.1

Szeto, W. (2022, February 9). The fastest growing population centres in Canada are in B.C. — but they’re not in Metro Vancouver. CBC News. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/census-data- population-growth-british-columbia-interior-1.6344994 

Watson, J. (2021, April 20). Climate change creates migrants. Biden considers protections. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-climate-climate-change-rising-sea-levels-immigration-59e47e0a9e3ad183a5dc4a6d8cb5f576

Right relations for past life means respecting the fossilized remains of plants and animals  – this is climate action at its core. We’ve been getting drunk on fossil fuels for a while now, and the energy return on investment is dwindling. For every barrel of energy used to extract oil from the Alberta tar sands in 2010, producers got back four times their energy investment (which excludes an analysis of ‘energy’ required to reclaim contaminated water and land). Compare that to the 1930’s in Texas where this ratio was 100:1 (Homer-Dixon, 2010). Fast forward to 2022, and people are feeling the higher cost of oil production in a global market strife with uncertainty brought about by war and a myriad of climate induced impacts – fire, floods, droughts etc. Our relationship with fossilized plants and animals is being felt acutely with BC gas prices peaking at 2.279/l as of May 14, 2022. Since money is an expression of energy and conventional oil provides about 95% of the world’s transportation energy (Homer-Dixon, 2010), will the escalating cost of oil offer the leverage point required to shift how we move people, goods, and services? Despite targets and initiatives to reduce GHG emissions in BC’s transportation sector, as of 2019 emissions have increased 22% since 2007 levels and makes up 39% of BC’s total GHG emissions (Government of BC, 2021). A transdisciplinary climate leader would deconstruct and reframe this ominous challenge as an opportunity and prompt for possibilities (Corman & Cox, 2020). What other fields of study, areas of expertise need to be included in this dialogue? Or is it a matter of going back to the people, ordinary people, once again, to inspire involvement, innovation and collaborative engagement (Gram‑Hanssen, 2021)?

How can a climate leader move the dial on reducing transportation emissions? Do we all collectively need more information to make informed decisions? Is number crunching the answer? What is the carbon “calories” of driving a 99 Toyota 4runner to the store verses taking transit, verses cycling, verses not consuming the stuff from the store? Carbon labelling, much like a nutritional label, could be a very useful tool for informing humans (to make rational decisions so we don’t collectively perish like fruit flies that have exceeded their carrying capacity). As a society, we did a very good job of educating the public about calories in the form of fat, protein, and carbs. Would energy accounting for every action or product, like a nutritional label, but more comprehensive change how we relate to life on earth? If it were known that driving XX km to the store consumed XX fossilized relatives and emitted XX emissions for present relatives resulting in XX impacts for future relatives make a difference in behavior?

Climate leadership is creative, courageous, communication that informs, warns, persuades and mobilizes. The end goal is to put climate leaders out of a job once the values of right relations with the interconnectedness of life become embedded in human ways of being. That’s all we have to do right?

References

Corman, I., & Cox, R. (2020). Transdisciplinarity: A Primer. Royal Roads University.

Gram-Hanssen, I., Schafenacker, N., & Bentz, J. (2022). Decolonizing transformations through ‘right relations’. Sustainability Science, 17(2), 673-685.

Government of BC. (2021). CleanBC 2021 Climate Change Accountability Report.

Homer-Dixon, T. (2010). Complexity science and public policy. New Directions Series, 11, 7-19.