This fall, I embarked on a journey to learn more about Climate Science, Impacts, and Services (CAL 500), through the Master of Arts in Climate Action Leadership at Royal Roads University. Through-out the course, the quality of instruction and depth of technical insights about climate modelling, impacts and projections was empowering. While knowledge is power, once you know, you can’t unknow. The gravity of the climate crisis became even more pronounced by reading a cross section of peer reviewed scientific literature that illuminated an uncertain future.
CAL 500 kicked off with a lecture on climate grief. At the time, I was confused. Was I supposed to be grieving? I’ve been in “eco-holes” before and they are more paralyzing than motivating. Through-out most of the course, I felt ok, fully aware that parts of BC were in a stage 4 drought until mid November and that the changes to hydrology is a climate projection coming into fruition (Capital Regional District, 2017). During the course, an unprecedented forest fire in October near a family’s residence made me (1) alarmed and (2) aware how regional climate models suggest how normal this could be under our current emissions trajectory. I accepted that thanks to radiative forcing (pgs.27-28) from increasing cumulative GHGs in the atmosphere, an extended fire season (pgs.59, 65) is in the near future, in my lifetime, and in my daughter’s lifetime (Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018).
Many young people today feel like climate change has robbed them of their future (Ritchie, 2021). I think about this considering the present and future my daughter is inheriting. In her first year of life, she experienced a large area of intense scorching heat trapped in the atmosphere, an event known as a heat dome (Bratu et al., 2022). She was too young to understand how this event amplified climate-related anxiety amoung many British Columbians (Bratu et al., 2022), including her mother. This unusual heatwave from late June/July 2021 caused failures of power grids, widespread wildfires and over 1400 total deaths (Mo et al., 2022). Five months later, a band of concentrated water vapour delivered an atmospheric river in the lower troposphere (Mo et al., 2022) and hit southern BC. Thanks to CAL 500, I understood how a large ensemble of simulations could determine that human-induced climate change increased the probability of this 1 in 50-year event by up to an estimated 330% (Gillet et al., 2022). The Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives found that the 2021 heat dome, wildfires and atmospheric river in BC resulted in a cumulative cost between $10.6 and $17.1 billion, which is equivalent to 3–5% of provincial GDP (Lee and Parfitt, 2022). Internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that by 2030, approximately 250,000 people will die annually due to climate-induced heat stress, malaria, diarrhea, and malnutrition (Boyd, 2019). At that time my daughter will be 10 years old. Debt and greater risk of death is in the future.
Over and over, it is said that those who are least responsible for climate change will suffer the most. This includes very young people and all others that contribute little to GHGs. The poorest half of the world’s population create about 10% of global GHGs, where-as the richest 10% are responsible for producing half of all GHGs (Boyd, 2019). l liken this to war. Like war, the greatest human suffering occurs to those with a socioeconomic status that are unable to flee or safely adapt. Both climate change and war are violent; climate change is a slow burn – a gradual form of violence through species extinction, extreme heat, food shortages etc., where-as war is abruptly violent. Both involve domination, either dominating each other or the natural world, forgetting that we need both to co-exist, to exist. We are instructed to “fight climate change,” but what are we really fighting – ourselves, corporations, governments? And how do we move beyond fighting to finding solutions, when physical fighting, politic-ing and greed gets in the way? The war in Ukraine has caused an estimated 33 million tonnes of CO2 and rebuilding Ukraine will cause significantly more emissions, up to 49 million tonnes of CO2 (Rannard, 2022). I feel this war in my bones, in my bloodlines and am deeply disturbed. I would say parts of the world are edging towards realizing Socio-economic Scenario Pathway (SSP) 3: Regional Rivalry, where nationalism, concerns about competitiveness and security, drive countries to focus on achieving energy and food security goals within their own borders (Riahi, 2017). So, while COP27 offered a glimmer of hope by negotiating who pays for the irreversible damage caused by climate change in developing nations (Rannard, 2017), I think the bigger issue is that other more immediate events are stealing the headlines to emphasize GHG mitigation now. A major climate catastrophe gains attention for a moment, maybe a few weeks, but what we really need is a climate lens that’s not based on grief and tragedy, because based on how I feel in this moment – it’s not super motivating.
I gained a considerable amount of useful and applicable knowledge during CAL 500 and understand now why it kicked off with a discussion on climate grief. I feel this grief, and it also encompasses grief about the inertia and other suffering that can distract us from doing work to reduce emissions, restructure the economy, and shift our values now. For us, for you, for my daughter.
References
Beusch, L., Nauels, A., Gudmundsson, L. et al. Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot years. Commun Earth Environ 3, 7 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00320-6
Bratu, A., Card, K., Closson, K., Aran, N., Marshall, C., Clayton, S., Gislason, M., Smiji, H., Martin, G., Lem, M., Logie, C., Takaro, T., Hogg, R. (2022). The 2021 Western North American heat dome increased climate change anxiety among British Columbians: Results from a natural experiment. The Journal of Climate Change and Health, 6, 100116. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joclim.2022.100116
Boyd, D. (2019). Safe Climate: A Report of the Special Rapporteur on Human Rights and the Environment. UN Human Rights, Office of the High Commissioner. Report to UN General Assembly, A/74/161.
Capital Regional District (2017). Climate Projections for the Capital Region.
2017-07- 17_climateprojectionsforthecapitalregion_final.pdf (crd.bc.ca)
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Gillett, N. P., Cannon, A. J., Malinina, E., Schnorbus, M., Anslow, F., Sun, Q., Castellan, A. (2022). Human influence on the 2021 British Columbia floods. Weather and Climate Extremes, 36, 100441. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100441
Lee, M., & Parfitt, M. A climate reckoning: the economic costs of BC’s extreme weather in 2021. Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives.
Mo, R., Lin, H. & Vitart, F. An anomalous warm-season trans-Pacific atmospheric river linked to the 2021 western North America heatwave. Commun Earth Environ 3, 127 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00459-w
Rannard, G. (2022, November 14). COP27: War causing huge release of climate warming gas, claims Ukraine. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-63625693
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Ritchie, H. (2021, November 1) WIRED article. Stop telling kids they’ll die from climate change. https://www.wired.com/story/stop-telling-kids-theyll-die-from-climate-change/
Vancouver Coastal Health, 2018: Moving towards climate resilient health facilities for Vancouver Coastal Health, Project report, 86pp. https://etccdi.pacificclimate.org/sites/default/files/publications/VCH_ClimateReport_Final.pdf