A. Review of Canmore’s Climate Risk Assessment

Climate Risk Assessment Approach

In 2015, the Town of Canmore commissioned All One Sky Foundation to conduct a climate risk assessment and develop the “Climate Change Adaptation Background Report and Resilience Plan” (Town of Canmore, 2016).

Because the consultants (a small group of experts) determined the assessment method, used existing data and were responsible for quality assurance, the Canmore process is considered to be a “top-down” risk assessment approach, which is usually faster and simpler for the client (CCME, 2021). 

A series of workshops were held including Town staff and a few local stakeholders (listed on p. 50 of the Plan), including the Rockies Institute, which focuses on collaborations with rural and Indigenous Peoples (Mountain Partnership, n.d.).

Identifying Climate Impacts & Opportunities

Local, scientific climate data was reviewed: both from the past and projections for the future. Participants developed a list of climate impact statements characterizing consequences (listed in Appendix B). 

• Impact Statement example: “Warmer summer temperatures, more periods of extreme heat, less summer precipitation, and increase in intensity of summer storms (lighting strikes)” lead to a “recurring risk of forest fire” (Town of Canmore, 2016, p. 52). 
• Opportunity Statement example: “Less precipitation falling as snow, warmer spring and fall temperatures, and reduced winter snowpack” lead “towards increase in summer season recreation activities for residents and tourists” (Town of Canmore, 2016, p. 56). 

Determining Risk & Opportunity Levels

Participants rated the likelihood and consequence of each impact statement based on input from the experts and on their own interpretations and perceptions. A risk rating matrix was used to identify the highest priority risks. For example, the “forest fire” impact (R3 in Figure 11, below) was determined to be of high consequence and moderate likelihood, placing it in the middle of the top row in the red zone, making it a high priority for action. Opportunities were also prioritized in a similar way.

Action Planning

Potential actions were developed for the highest priority risks and opportunities, considering actions currently in place. Potential actions were evaluated against implementation criteria, including effectiveness, affordability, feasibility, acceptability, equitability and flexibility. 

Implementation

Since the Plan’s approval, it has been used as intended and Canmore has moved forward on priority actions including: steep creek hazard mapping, restricting development in high risk flood areas, designing flood mitigation infrastructure, allocating significant funds to address pine beetle and developing a wildfire mitigation strategy (C. Van Gaal, personal communication, February 2, 2022).

B. My Learnings & Insights

1. A vulnerability assessment considering exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity is a more recent best practice that should be conducted between the impact assessment and risk assessment stages (Brown, 2022). 
   
2. Given the success of Canmore’s plan, its flexibility and reproducibility, this top-down risk assessment process will continue to be attractive to municipalities. However, a more inclusive bottom-up” risk assessment approach with early and frequent input from additional stakeholders, Indigenous peoples and other partners can be beneficial because:
   • it builds trust, which leads to longer-lasting solutions and creates momentum for later stages of adaptation planning (CCME, 2021);
   • there are many different ways to structure the process of a climate risk and vulnerability assessment and it is most effective if it is designed with input from the client and other stakeholders and rightsholders;
   • risk and vulnerability assessment results and the corresponding action plan are highly influenced by who is involved, and therefore inclusivity is imperative; and
   • a two-eyed seeing framework that considers both Western Science and Indigenous Knowledge will lead to more comprehensive understanding of climate risk and longer-lasting adaptation strategies.

References

Brown, C. (2022). Royal Roads University CALS 503 Moodle Page. Unit 3 Synchronous Session. February 1, 2022. 

CCME. (2021). Guidance on good practices in climate change risk assessment. https://ccme.ca/en/res/riskassessmentguidancesecured.pdf.

Mountain Partnership. (n.d.). The Resilience Institute. Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/mountain-partnership/members/members-detail/en/c/145578/.

Town of Canmore. (2016). Climate Change Adaptation Background Report and Resilience Plan. Retrieved from https://canmore.ca/residents/stewardship-of-the-environment/climate-change-adaptation-plan/climate-change-and-adaptation-plan