My final paper for CALS 500 Climate Science, Impacts and Services is a practitioner’s report that summarizes some key concepts in climate science. It pulls some key findings from the August 2021 Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) released by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and presents them in plain language for policy makers. Here is a brief summary of my report.

Seven Critical Issues

1. Humans have caused global warming and therefore have the responsibility to address it.
   
2. CO₂ levels are higher today than in the past 800,000 years and continue to increase at an unprecedented rate.
   
3. Temperature will continue to increase at an unprecedented rate unless CO₂ levels are reduced.
   
4. In all plausible future scenarios, the global temperature is projected to be higher than it is today.  
   
5. Even if CO₂ emissions are held steady, the global temperature will remain at its peak temperature for centuries.  
   
6.  The 1.5-degree target is exceeded in all scenarios within 10 to 15 years. 
   
7. Canada’s climate is warming at twice the global amount. [Addition on June 9, 2022: “…and three times as fast in the North.”] 

Conclusion and Recommendations 

Earth’s global temperature is projected to increase in all plausible future scenarios, which will create more extreme weather, melting ice, sea level rise and a broad range of social, economic and health effects.

Given the unprecedented societal transitions required to achieve the 1.5-degree target, it stands to reason that global warming is more likely to follow a medium or high future scenario. This will cause more climate impacts and create more difficult social, economic, cultural and health challenges at the global and local levels. 

It is imperative that governments, businesses, and other organizations prepare for these impacts. Decision-makers should:

1. Access climate information on the impacts in their region, and in particular, understand the impacts under a worst-case scenario; and
2. Develop an adaptation plan and ensure resources are allocated to preparing for a range of plausible scenarios.

It makes sense to be aware of impacts related to a worst-case scenario because in all plausible scenarios, temperatures continue to increase unless emissions are reduced significantly. Putting measures in place to adapt to a higher scenario will simply result in being prepared sooner. For example, when designing buildings for 2050, architects should be aware of their local climate conditions under the worst-case scenario and could design the building to withstand those conditions. If a more optimistic scenario is achieved, the building will simply be ready for worst-case conditions earlier than required.

 My full report is 13 pages long, and I am happy to share it. I also interested in any comments you may have. Please leave a comment,  contact me through social media, or email me at: Kerra.Chomlak@royalroads.ca.