Critical Evaluation of a Climate Risk Assessment

Blog Summary of Assignment 2 for CALS 503: Climate Risk Management

With the effects of climate change bearing down on communities across Canada, how can local governments leverage climate risk assessment processes to support effective action on the unique set of climate change impacts they face now and in the future?

Aerial picture of the Soo Locks (downriver view) — in Michigan between Lake Superior and Lake Huron.
Located between the cities of Sault Ste. Marie, Michigan, USA (right) and Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario, Canada (left).
Whitefish Island is just to the left of the rapids, with the Canadian Sault Ste. Marie Canal partially in view to its left.
Image Credit: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

In the northern Ontario region, the Climate Risk Institute (CRI) worked together with Sault Ste. Marie (SSM) city staff to complete a climate change risk assessment process as part of the Northern Climate Change Network initiative (CRI, 2020). The Climate Change Risk Assessment report highlights the results from two workshops to identify and assess risks to the City of SSM associated with climate change in the region. While this risk assessment process identifies key climate impacts and risks for the City, it misses some important elements and best practices outlined in CCME (2021) Guidance on Good Practices in Climate Change Risk Assessment that would better support climate adaptation action.

My evaluation found three key areas of weakness in the Sault Ste. Marie assessment: 1) the lack of stakeholder and local First Nations participation in the assessment workshops, 2) the lack of a robust and transparent vulnerability assessment, and 3) it failed to clearly identify or communicate the specific, localized impacts and risks to particularly vulnerable people or areas. My evaluation relied on the CCME (2021) Guidance on Good Practices in Climate Change Risk Assessment and ICLEI’s Changing climate, changing communities: guide and workbook for municipal climate adaptation

The Sault Ste. Marie risk assessment relied on a workshop-based process led by climate change specialists (Climate Risk Institute) with participation from city staff and representatives from three external agencies (15 participants total). Participation from local First Nations was absent, both from an urban resident perspective and from neighbouring First Nation reserves. As a result of its reliance on a smaller number of experts, this assessment only captures the opinions of a small subset of expertise and experiences and misses some critical perspectives from a wide range of residents, workers, and visitors/tourists, to name a few. 

Analyses of sensitivity and resiliency of each service area were not completed, so the community’s overall vulnerability to impacts from projected climate change events is unclear. CCME (2021) highlights the importance of including consideration of vulnerabilities, exposure and climate change hazards, and the consideration of likelihood and consequence.

ICLEI (2019) highlights that local governments are well-positioned to tailor their work according to their particular local conditions and the unique climate impacts they will face. Sault Ste. Marie’s risk assessment lacked the identification of specific, localized impacts and risks to particularly vulnerable areas, and the results end up sounding fairly generic without clear “so what” statements.

Overall, the Climate Risk Assessment for Sault Ste. Marie provides a practical, high-level consideration of climate hazards and risks in the region that can inform further adaptation planning work in the future. The process could have been strengthened with a more inclusive and participatory process with partners and stakeholders and by conducting a robust vulnerability assessment to help prioritize key risks in the region (CCME, 2020; ICLEI, 2019). A more detailed consideration of specific impacts in the context of local social, environmental, and economic conditions would support the next iteration of climate change risk management and adaptation planning (ICLEI, 2019).

References

Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). (2021). Guidance on good practices in climate change risk assessment.

Climate Risk Institute (CRI). (2020). The city of Sault Ste. Marie climate change risk assessment 2020. www.climateriskinstitute.ca

ICLEI. (2019). Changing climate, changing communities: guide and workbook for municipal climate adaptation. https://icleicanada.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/Guide.pdf