Reviewing reports such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Canada’s Changing Climate Report (CCCR 2019), led by Environment and Climate Change Canada gives a clear overview of climate change, both in Canada and globally.
We know that the Earth’s warming is caused by human influence; each of these reports explains this in a slightly different way. IPCC AR5 states that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. The atmosphere and ocean have warmed, the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, sea level has risen, and the concentrations of greenhouse gases have increased” (IPCC, 2013, p.4). CCCR 2019 states that “Canada’s climate has warmed and will warm further in the future, driven by human influence. Both past and future warming in Canada is, on average, about double the magnitude of global warming. Northern Canada has warmed and will continue to warm at even more than double the global rate” (Bush et. al, 2019, p.5).
Absorbing information about climate change can be and emotional and evoke a number of different emotions. We experience similar feelings when dealing with any sort of challenging material, in which case, striving for resilience is key. In the episode Inside Out: The Greif, Trauma and Anxiety of Climate Change (and what you can do) with Dr. Renee Lertzman from the podcast America Adapts- The Climate Change Podcast hosted by Doug Parsons, Dr. Renee Lertzman states that there is a perception within climate organizations that if we pause and acknowledge the feelings, it will take us down. (Lertzman, 2020.)
Dr. Lertzman defines climate grief as “natural and normal response to the rate of change that is taking place due to human generated climatic change” (Lertzman, 2020, 13:43). As mentioned earlier, there is a feeling among climate organizations that if we pause and acknowledge this grief it will hinder us; however, Dr. Lerzman states that paradoxically, it will help us to move through it with more resilience (Lertzman, 2020, 31:53).
Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change by Zeke Hausfather provides an overview of different pathways that the world could take based on the actions that we take.
Climate scenarios refer to possible trajectories based on various levels of climate action and policy that could be implemented by global society. Modeling for these possible trajectories has been developed by researchers from various climate modeling groups (Hausfather, 2018).
Scenarios are useful in supporting planning for the future. Some models, like the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) purposefully did not include any socioeconomic variables. A model such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) does include socioeconomic factors, which is not only an important part of planning for the future, but also for climate action, mitigation, and adaptation in general (Hausfather, 2018). The SSPs provide five different ‘pathways’, which include projections pertaining to specifics such as, food security and economic development. It is crucial to look at these factors when planning for the future and working in adaptation and mitigation (Hausfather, 2018).
The five different possible scenarios outlined in the SSPs are:
- Sustainability- Taking The Green Road (Low challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
- Middle of the Road (Medium challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
- Regional Rivalry- A Rocky Road (High challenges to mitigation and adaptation)
- Inequality- A Road Divided (Low challenges to mitigation, high challenges to adaptation)
- Fossil-Fueled Development- Taking the Highway (High challenges to mitigation, low challenges to adaptation)
(Hausfather, 2018)
Inequality- A Road Divided and Fossil-Fueled Development- Taking the Highway are exceptionally challenging material. I imagine most climate change professionals and people would experience some form of climate anxiety or climate grief imagining what the Earth could look like under either of these scenarios.
Sustainability- Taking The Green Road with low challenges to mitigation and adaptation shifts the current emphasis on economic growth towards human well-being. This pathway is likely one that would provide climate change professionals and people a potential feeling of hope.
Tools such as scenarios can support planning for climate scientists and mitigation and adaptation professionals; they can also provide a sense of hope for citizens and climate change professionals alike who have similar concerns and potential climate anxiety. As Dr. Lertzman states, it is imperative to acknowledge feelings of grief and anxiety in order to move forward with the continuous and important work.
References
America Adapts podcast: Inside Out: The Grief, Trauma and Anxiety of Climate Change (and what you can do) with Dr. Renee Lertzman. Episode 121, Sept 28, 2020.
Bush, E., Gillett, N., Bonsal, B., Cohen, S., Derksen, C., Flato, G., Greenan, B., Shepherd, M., & Zhang, X. (2019). Canada’s changing climate report – executive summary. Government of Canada. https://doi.org/10.4095/327626
Hausfather, Z. (2018). Explainer: How ‘Shared Socioeconomic Pathways’ explore future climate change. Carbon Brief.
IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.