December 2022 – Deanna's Blog

A hopeful photo of the sunrise shining between trees and off of harbour at Maffeo Sutton Park.

The Better News is a Vision of a Very Low Emissions Pathway

As discussed in the Climate Diagnosis and Bad News post, climate impacts are already occurring. Strong climate adaptation measures are needed to minimize harm from locked-in climate change and the impacts of increasing emissions (IPCC, 2022, p. 13). In addition, reducing or mitigating greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible is imperative to avoid worsening impacts and extreme events. Climate adaptation and mitigation cannot be looked at in isolation from nature and biodiversity (IPCC, 2022, p.14 & 32). Climate change amplifies the demise of nature, but nature also offers solutions for reducing emissions and protecting against climate change impacts (IPBES, 2019, p. 16). That being said, rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is incredibly complex, and it will be challenging to untangle from our reliance on fossil fuels and consumptive lifestyle. Climate science provides information that can help guide our decisions through climate models.

Climate modellers produce simulations of different emissions pathways based on socio-economic storylines (Chen et al., 2021, p.228). A vision of the low emissions pathway is the only scenario that leads to a world that avoids climate catastrophe and is what we must focus on. The very low emissions scenario used by the climate modellers to inform the latest Climate Assessment Report is called Sustainability or Taking the Green Road (O’Neill et al., 2016, p. 172). Although the scenarios are not meant to be prescriptive, looking at the one that leads to the best possible outcomes can be a way to envision what actions need to be taken and what the results or benefits of those actions will be. Taking the Green Road offers a new vision that relies on human societies adopting well-being, equity, and justice goals and working on getting there through collaboration and cooperation.

Managing the global commons is achieved by actors working to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals and civil societies valuing a healthy environment for well-being. Reduction in resource use comes from improved efficiencies, renewable energy technology, innovation and focus on green growth and avoidance of wasteful consumption. There is also an imperative to re-establish humans’ relationship with nature to steward nature back from biodiversity collapse and to rely on the services nature provides for human development (Khor et al., 2022, p. 141). There is no health or well-being without nature. Changing the high consumption, high growth mindset will mean communicating and discussing the benefits and urgency of working towards this vision with friends, family, colleagues and communities.

In that regard, one of the fundamental learnings I took away from MACAL CALS502 Climate Communications was the importance of talking about the benefits of our actions and acknowledging the values that people hold (Bennett et al., 2021). For Canadians, fairness is important, as are opportunities for young people, community safety, protection of the environment and cost-effectiveness. When considering fairness, Canadians have committed to reconciliation with the Indigenous People and have adopted the United Nations Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous People (UNDRIP).

Interestingly, according to University of British Columbia led, research It has been found that Indigenous-managed land has retained greater species richness compared to government protected areas (Schuster et al. 2019. p. 4). The researchers recommend Indigenous led land-management to conserve biodiversity, support Indigenous land rights and, ultimately, human wellbeing. Along the same lines, the National Collaborating Centre for Indigenous Health points out that “Indigenous knowledges and worldviews provide powerful teachings on environmental stewardship [which can] reduce the severity of climate change” (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2022, p.48). Here is a powerful action with many benefits.

Concerning health, Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer points out that climate action “is good for our health” (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2022, p. 4). Also, that a “One-Health approach calls on public health to think beyond human health” and consider the interconnections of humans and the natural world in a changing climate and the need for “equity and justice for human, plant and animal systems” ( Public Health Agency of Canada, 2022, p. 38). These actions are called for as they lead to better health outcomes for Canadians and reduce the economic burden on health care.

When considering the economic burden, it is often posited that the reason for fossil fuel development is to protect the economy. However, the high GHG emissions from fossil fuel development and combustion have costs due to the contribution to global warming, air pollution and environmental degradation. From climate change alone, the Canadian Climate Institutes Damage Control Report claims that Canada will lose $25 billion annually in costs associated with climate damage by 2025 (Sawyer et al., 2022, p. 6). Those costs will escalate to $101 billion annually in 25 short years if we remain on a high emissions pathway. The Damage Control report shows that investment in adaptation and mitigation can reduce those costs by 75% (Sawyer et al., 2022, p. 14).

If through climate action, we can save billions of dollars, improve human well-being, return land title to Indigenous communities, reduce biosphere loss and mass extinction, we will have done significant service for ourselves and future generations.

Note on Citations

The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.

References

Bennett, A., Hatch, C.,& Pike, C. (2021). Climate Messaging that Works, Climate Narrative Initiative, Climate Access. https://climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Climate%20Messaging%20that%20Works%20-%20Talking%20Energy%20Transition%20and%20Climate%20Change%20in%20Canada.pdf

Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, P. Hope, P. Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Tréguier. (2021). Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L., Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147–286, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003.

IPBES. (2019). Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. S. Díaz, J. Settele, E. S. Brondízio, H. T. Ngo, M. Guèze, J. Agard, A. Arneth, P. Balvanera, K. A. Brauman, S. H. M. Butchart, K. M. A. Chan, L. A. Garibaldi, K. Ichii, J. Liu, S. M. Subramanian, G. F. Midgley, P. Miloslavich, Z. Molnár, D. Obura, A. Pfaff, S. Polasky, A. Purvis, J. Razzaque, B. Reyers, R. Roy Chowdhury, Y. J. Shin, I. J. Visseren-Hamakers, K. J. Willis, and C. N. Zayas (eds.). IPBES secretariat, Bonn, Germany. 56 pages. https://zenodo.org/record/3553579#.Y30Gl0nMI7c

IPCC. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001

IPCC. (2022). Summary for Policymakers [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3-33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001

Khor, N., Arimah, B., Otieno Otieno, R., van Oostrum, M., Mutinda, M., Oginga Martins, J., Godwin, A., Castan Broto, V., Chatwin, M., Dijkstra, L., Joss, S., Sharifi, A., Sverdlik, A., Simon, D., Florio, P., Freire, S., Kemper, T., Melchiorri, M., Schiavina, M., . . . Unnikrishnan, H. (2022). World Cities Report 2022 Envisaging the Future of Cities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. https://unhabitat.org/wcr/

Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A primer (D. Wright, Ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing. https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/thinking-in-systems/

O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016

Public Health Agency of Canada. (2022). Chief Public Health Officer of Canada’s Report on the State of Public Health in Canada 2022: Mobilizing Public Health Action On Climate Change in Canada. https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/corporate/publications/chief-public-health-officer-reports-state-public-health-canada/state-public-health-canada-2022/report.html

Sawyer, Dave, Ryan Ness, Caroline Lee, and Sarah Miller. (2022). Damage Control: Reducing the costs of climate impacts in Canada. Canadian Climate Institute. https://climateinstitute.ca/reports/damage-control/

Schuster, R., Germain, R. R., Bennett, J. R., Reo, N. J., & Arcese, P. (2019). Vertebrate biodiversity on indigenous-managed lands in Australia, Brazil, and Canada equals that in protected areas. Environmental Science & Policy, 101, 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.002

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The Bad News but the Least We Should Know About Climate Change

Leave a Comment / Academic Writing, CALS 501 / Deanna

Climate science informs us that humans have unequivocally caused global warming and details what is driving the warming (Chen et al., 2021, p. 150). For more on that, see my Climate Diagnosis Post. In addition, climate science identifies what planetary systems are changing and what climate impacts are already occurring. More importantly, these impacts can be projected into the future based on how much greenhouse gas is emitted. This gives us a window into various futures depending on our current choices. The troubling part is that in the last 50 years, there has been a rapid increase in greenhouse emissions and, correspondingly, the global surface temperature. Both have risen faster than in any other period in 2000 years (IPCC, 2021, p.8). Also, in the previous 50 years, almost all the world’s glaciers have retreated, which is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. Arctic sea ice has been at its lowest since 1850, and the global mean sea level has risen faster in the last century than any previous one for at least 3000 years. In addition, the increase in sea temperature, oxygen concentrations, and declining global ocean pH (Arias et al., 2021, p.74) all affect the ocean environment, circulation, and coastal shorelines.

Scientists assure us that human-induced climate change has affected every region of the planet with extreme weather and unprecedented climate events (IPCC, 2021, p. 8). Those impacts will increase in frequency, intensity and duration with each incremental degree of warming (IPCC, 2021, p. 18). Although this is alarming, there is more. As warming continues, multiple extreme events will happen simultaneously (IPCC, 2021, p. 25). This will be further exacerbated by the warming rate that increases the occurrence of record-shattering events such as heat waves and droughts (Fischer et al., 2021, p. 692). Figure 2 graphically shows the climate impacts and how they intensify for higher surface temperatures (Arias et al., 2021, p. 89). The warmer it gets, the worse it is and the more inhospitable to human, animal and plant life. There is no motivation to allow warming to rise beyond 1.5^°C above pre-industrial levels.

Figure 2

From Arias et al., 2021, p. 89.

As shown in Figure 2, global warming is currently at 1.1^oC above preindustrial levels, and the climate impacts on ecosystems and humans have already been widespread, extreme and deadly. To help contextualize this, I found it helpful to think about local impacts. For example, southern Canada is warming at double the global average, with northern Canada warming even faster (Bush et al., 2022, p. 7). The three oceans surrounding Canada have been negatively affected as they warm, lose oxygen below the global average for the Pacific and become more acidic. Regional coastlines are impacted as the global mean sea level (GMSL) rises. Some will have much higher sea levels than the GMSL (Bush et al., p.30). Although precipitation is increasing, this will be from intense rainfall in the winter, while lower rainfall in the summer increases the incidence, duration and intensity of drought (Bush et al., 2022, p.8). Extreme hot temperatures will continue to increase in intensity and frequency, as will heat waves and weather extremes (Bush et al., 2022, p.9). There already is less snowpack, glaciers are rapidly receding, permafrost is thawing, and Arctic Sea ice is melting (Bush et al., 2022, p. 8 & 9). In British Columbia, we have already experienced some significant impacts from climate change, including deadly heat waves, record-breaking wildfire seasons, unprecedented drought, extreme winter storms, heavy unremitting precipitation and devastating floods (MoE, n.d.). It is difficult to imagine it getting worse, but unfortunately, that is the track we are currently on.

But a few things caught my attention as necessary for all to know when we think about climate action. Firstly, every tonne matters, each additional tonne of CO₂ emissions adds to global warming (IPCC, 2021, p. 28), and therefore, each tonne avoided matters. As CO₂ is so long living in the atmosphere, our emissions today will be affecting the climate of our great-grandchildren; not a legacy any of us should be leaving, so any effort we make now will make a difference. Secondly, because CH₄ has such a high warming potential and is rapidly increasing, getting that under control quickly is essential (Arias et al., 2021, p. 103). We need methane police! Finally, realizing that rapidly reducing GHGs now would make a difference within years and global temperatures would stabilize in twenty years (IPCC, 2021, p. 30) made me wonder why we would want to drag this out any longer than necessary. Getting on this now means most humans alive today will benefit from their efforts. For those that have already experienced climate impacts, that should be motivating.

Note on Citations

The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.

References

Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, . . . K. Zickfeld, (2021). Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896

Bush, E., Bonsal, B., Derksen, C., Flato, G., Fyfe, J., Gillett, N., Greenan, B. J. W., James, T. S., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Mudryk, L., & Zhang, X. (2022). Canada’s changing climate report, in light of the latest global science assessment. https://doi.org/10.4095/329703

Fischer, E. M., Sippel, S., & Knutti, R. (2021). Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes. Nature Climate Change, 11(8), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9

Minster of Environmental & Climate Change Strategy (MoE). (n.d.). Climate Preparedness and Adaptation. Province of British Columbia. Retrieved December 16, 2022, from https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/environment/climate-change/adaptation#impacts

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Planet earth with eyes looking at a rising thermometer and sweat coming of her brow

Climate Change Diagnosis

1 Comment / Academic Writing, CALS 501 / Deanna

Before taking MACAL CALS500 Climate Science, Impacts, and Services, I had the notion that the 2015 Paris target of “limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels” (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161) would mean the world would be a different but still somewhat safe place. Striving for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be even better. Diving into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I (WGI), it is evident that allowing the global temperature to rise higher than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels will push the planetary systems to inhospitable places for many of the living beings that rely on a functioning biosphere, including humans. Unfortunately, modern humans’ extractive, consumptive lifestyle has not only threatened the climate system but has pushed biodiversity and other planetary boundaries to or beyond safe limits (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161). This is what systems thinkers like Donella Meadows call the tragedy of the commons (Meadows, 2008, p. 118).

The biosphere is the commons as it is not owned or regulated by any one entity. Humans (some more than others) have benefited enormously from extracting resources and dumping waste into the biosphere with little regard for the consequences. The tragedy comes from the lack of feedback to those responsible for the biospheres’ demise until it is too late (Meadows, 2008, p. 121). As dire as this sounds, spending time studying climate science and the WGI report, with contributions from thousands of scientists and researchers collaborating around the world, provided necessary insights. It was like being given a proper diagnosis for a long-endured ailment or essential feedback on the state of the commons. Although the diagnosis is bad news, the treatment provides better news as it leads us towards an equitable, just, safe, biodiverse and healthy path. In this blog post, I will provide some background on how humans caused climate change and how we need a vision of a very low emissions sustainable future to save ourselves.

Background on How We Caused Climate Change

Scientists have proven the cause of global warming through paleoclimate records and climate modelling (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). They have found that “[i]ncreases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities” (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). Also, carbon dioxide (CO₂) is the most significant contributor to GHGs due to its higher concentration level and long life span (centuries). It has not been at such a high concentration “in at least 2 million years” (IPCC 2021, p. 8). Methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) are the next most significant contributors, with concentrations “higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years” (IPCC, 2021, p. 8). CH₄ has a shorter life span (decades) in the atmosphere. Still, it has a much higher global warming potential than CO₂, so it can have dramatic short-term impacts (IPCC, 2021, p. 27), which is essential to remember when looking at mitigation actions.

Unfortunately, humans have increased the release of all GHGs, but unlike CO_2, “land and ocean are not substantial sinks for other [greenhouse gas emissions]”(IPCC, 2021, p. 4). This fact caught my attention as there is so much focus on CO_2,yet short-lived emissions could cause problems if not reduced significantly. Unsurprisingly, given how much we rely on it, the primary source of all three of these gases is fossil fuel production, distribution, and combustion for energy, transportation, and industry (Arias, 2021, p.102). Other human activities, such as deforestation and agriculture, also release greenhouse gas emissions (Chen, 2021, p. 244). As a result, the more humans there are and the more we consume, the higher the emissions and concentrations. To date, emission levels and population have only continued to rise (NOAA, 2022, UN, 2022).

The global surface temperature has also risen (Chen, 2021, p. 211). Paleoclimate records show that over the centuries, the rise in global surface temperature has followed the same trajectory as the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Chen, 2021, p. 159). Greenhouse gases are so named because they trap heat within the planetary atmosphere, much like the inside of a car on a sunny day that warms up much more than the outside air. Earth’s atmosphere holds heat that would otherwise be reflected out to space. For thousands of years, the atmosphere has been finely tuned with just enough greenhouse gases to balance the heat absorbed from the sun and reflected by the planet (Forster et al.,2021, p. 1021). Figure 1 graphically shows the imbalance today and where the energy is stored, with the majority stored in the ocean.

Figure 1

Incoming and Outgoing Energy Flows and the Current Imbalance Caused by Greenhouse Gases

Note. Before human-caused greenhouse gases started accumulating in the atmosphere, the incoming energy was balanced with the outgoing energy. The atmosphere maintained a stable climate. As greenhouse gases accumulated, the energy balance has shifted, with energy now being stored in the ocean, land, ice and atmosphere. From Forster et al., 2021, p. 1021.

The finely balanced atmosphere and stable climate created a hospitable environment for a thriving biosphere (Holocene, 2022), and living beings evolved to work within the web of life through reciprocity and mutual flourishing (Kimmerer, 2013, p. 382). But that all changed with industrialization and the release of human-caused greenhouse gases. Here lies the tragedy for humans to solve. Our societies, cultures, and economies have developed around the extraction of resources and high levels of waste. It has afforded incredible technological advancements and consumptive lifestyles for those fortunate enough to create and increase wealth. Unfortunately, there is plenty of “bad news” about the damage and impacts already caused by modern-day living and what we can expect if we keep on a high emissions pathway. Please read my “Bad News” post for my reflection on the points that hit home for me. If you prefer only to know our best option for our survival, then skip to the “Better News” section for a reflection of what a very low emissions world could be.

Holding a Vision and Shifting our Mind Set

Holding a vision of a very low emissions future is what is needed. The vision, like a beacon, will guide us in our work. This will be necessary as we untangle the economic system that has led to the demise of the planet’s life-giving complex systems. We need to change the economic systems’ destructive goals, structures, and parameters that focus on unlimited growth, putting humans above all and nature as a resource for human fulfillment (Meadows, 2001, p.163). Ultimately a shift in mindset or paradigm, as system thinker Donella Meadows describes, is one of the most effective ways to change a system (2001, p. 163). Getting that shift requires clear communication about the failures of the status quo and a high-emissions pathway so that the problem is defined (Bennett et al., 2021). Included in that communication must be the vision, goals and benefits of the new low-emissions sustainable world. Looking for and talking about successful transitions and approaches help to demonstrate that this is possible. Indigenous Knowledge Keepers have much to show us in this regard. Reorienting humans’ current trajectory towards the Green Road while implementing the UN Sustainable Development Goals is a legacy we can leave for the next generations. In this way, they will know that we have done the best that we were able to, which is the ultimate act of love.

Note on Citations

The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.

References

Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, & H. Zhang. (2021). The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.

Holocene. (2022, October 29). In Wikipedia. https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Holocene&oldid=1118882407

Kimmerer, R.W. (2013). Braiding Sweetgrass. Milkweed Editions. https://milkweed.org/book/braiding-sweetgrass

Meadows, D. H. (2008). Thinking in Systems: A primer (D. Wright, Ed.). Chelsea Green Publishing. https://www.chelseagreen.com/product/thinking-in-systems/

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2022, April 7). Increase in atmospheric methane set another record during 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2022, from https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/increase-in-atmospheric-methane-set-another-record-during-2021

United Nations (UN). (2022). World population to reach 8 billion on 15 November 2022. https://www.un.org/en/desa/world-population-reach-8-billion-15-november-2022

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