Throughout the MACAL graduate year, my thinking has expanded and deepened regarding the complexity of challenges facing climate action leaders, and so it has been with the CALS 505 Leading Change course. A significant requirement of this course was to develop a Climate Change Leadership Project Plan focusing on leading change. Due to the time commitment of researching and writing a plan during the height of summer, many fine weather activities were missed while others were out enjoying them. As a result, the plan was developed and written without the usual collaboration and input that might have typically informed the future vision and theory of change that was foundational to the plan. The upside was that I was forced and, therefore, stretched to imagine other perspectives as I independently developed the vision and theory of change.
After spending our summers working on our leadership plans, the cohort presented their plans to their classmates. It was like sharing the harvest of carefully planted gardens at the end of summer. I have reaped a deeper understanding of what is needed for leading climate change initiatives and believe there are three elements to use when I start working on future leadership plans. The elements include following my passion for taking climate action, using helpful tools such as the theory of change and logic models, and, notably, thinking about the leadership challenges and styles that best suit the initiative.
Start With Passion
I was recently asked how I keep working and studying in the climate action space, given how grim it seems. My passion keeps me going, and this is what is needed for any climate project I will be involved with. Passion is the spark that creates the vision and the energy that powers the project. There is an underlying desire to include what I am passionate about when working on climate action problems. I care deeply about nature, reconciliation, equity, fairness, and human well-being and look for ways to plant these into my endeavours. From this base, an idea becomes a vision. Allowing that passion to shine when sharing the vision helps inspire others to co-create climate solutions (Withers, 2023). Greta Thunberg provides an inspirational example with her passion, courage and forthrightness. However, not all climate leaders need to be Greta and can use their passion and vision locally within their communities.
Use Foundational Process Tools Like the Theory of Change
Taking that passion and vision and putting it into a leadership plan can be moved along by creating a theory of change to map out the inputs and activities that will lead to the desired outputs and outcomes (Pringle & Thomas, 2019). The process should result in a graphic. Figure 1 is an example from the United Nations for Climate Mitigation that visually demonstrates how the change will be achieved and should be referred to often throughout the planning process. Ideally, the theory of change will be developed collaboratively as part of an engagement process and be updated and evolve with the project.
Figure 1Example of a Climate Mitigation Theory of Change Graphic
Note – From Theory of Change for Climate Mitigation, by UN environment programme, finance initiative, Principles for Responsible Banking, February 2023.
For the CALS 505 Leadership Project Plan, there was no engagement process or time to conduct one. Therefore, the graphic was developed without input from others. I had already created a logic model and used that to make the theory of change graphic, starting by drawing it out on paper. Surprisingly, this process helped me see the necessary pathways to interim steps fundamental to long-term outcomes that were not as evident in the logic model. Here is a link to a blog that provides helpful steps to create a theory of change.
Need a Logic Model
Creating a logic model, a table of key actors and contributing factors was vital for getting the steps down in a logical progression. Both the theory of change and the logic model should be referred to frequently and be an iterative process throughout the project, and a more extensive project could be built on many logic models. Aside from helping the planner(s) synthesize thoughts, process, and distill what is foundational and the steps required, the tool is also helpful in communicating the change process (W.K. Kellogg Foundation, 2004).
Think About Leadership
I have previously posted on leadership styles that would fit the initiative proposed in the CALS 505 Leadership Project Plan and the leadership challenges. Considering the leadership style best suited to the project helps leaders focus on essential characteristics fundamental to success that may not be innate (Michigan State University, 2021). Understanding that human relationships need to be cultivated to grow a community willing to take on climate initiatives (Fox et al., 2023) ensures that essential considerations such as effectively communicating the long-term vision, are contemplated (Solvable and Magnolia Moonshot 2030, 2022). The logic model and theory of change graphics can be useful visual tools to support that end.
I will start future leadership project plans considering the essential elements needed to clearly engage, build support, develop relationships, and ensure understanding of the project. Initiating with passion, creating a theory of change and logic model, and considering appropriate leadership styles provide a foundation for the project to evolve and emerge.
References
Fox, A., Mwangi, C. G., Pachucki, M., Wells, R., Dasgupta, B., Thoma, H., Dunton, S., & Kimball, E. (2023). Rethinking Backbones in Collective Impact: Examining a Broadening STEM Participation Program as a Feminist Matrix Organization. Innovative Higher Education. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10755-023-09660-x
Withers, D. (2023, August 23). Final presentation part 2 [Class recording]. CALS505: Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change. Royal Roads University.
I am contemplating a change in the City of Nanaimo. It will start with a demonstration project to plant a mini-forest with the hope that a successful planting would lead to policy changes, more areas planted, and people developing a deeper connection to nature. This climate adaptation and biodiversity solution provides many benefits but can also be challenging to implement due to the multi-stakeholders involved and the new and novel approach of the solution. “Successful adaptation rel[ies] on the proper grasp of the cultural, economic and institutional contexts and on the leadership that is needed to mobilize resources for concrete action“ (Cash & Moser; Bisaro & Hinkel; Termer et al. as cited in Vignola et al., p. 84). Adopting the appropriate leadership style for the action can “promote concerted efforts, priority setting…and stakeholders’ engagement in multi-scale process of continual action” (Vignola et al., p. 84). Considering this and the leadership styles or attributes that might best be used to succeed with the vision, I am examining transformational and regenerative leadership for this blog post. But first…
Some Beach Time and Leadership Lessons from a Three Year Old
On a warm July afternoon, our family gathered at the cabin on the beach for my niece’s eighth birthday celebration. Being close to the ocean on such a warm day meant that most of the multi-generational family members went for an ocean dip. A few of the kids and adults had pool noodles which seemed like a great idea for floating in the gentle waves. Improvising, two of the young boys found some logs, just like I used to when I was their age, and carried them down to the water to float on. One youngster’s log was not quite right, so he asked his dad to carry down a larger log. In the meantime, the amiable three year old, Ben, was quietly watching all of this, and he decided to get a big log for everyone to share. There happened to be the perfect log near where all the adults were sitting. Without saying anything, Ben got up and walked over to the log in his charismatic three-year-old way. Undaunted, he glanced back with an optimistic, confident grin at the adults and invitingly waved his chubby hand and then went and started pushing on the log! Not able to withstand his charm, his 69 year old aunt went to help, and not long after that, so did his mom. Voila, the largest log on the beach, was pushed into the water. Ben’s vision, ability to inspire others, and willingness to disrupt assumptions and beliefs that the log was too large for such a small person to get into the water led to success. Ben had just demonstrated many attributes of what scholars call transformational leadership.
Understanding Transformational Leadership
Transformational leadership is needed when there is a clear vision of the goal or future state (Withers, 2023). Typically, the vision is a disruption of the status quo and tends to challenge beliefs or assumptions. Such a vision inspires and motivates action (Michigan State University, 2022). The leader must be inspiring to first elicit followers and then empower followers to innovate and experiment to find the path to the vision. The leader will encourage and embrace new experiences and opportunities to help those involved grow and learn (Michigan State University, 2022; Withers, 2023). Having others grow and learn and themselves become climate action leaders is vital for the immense effort required to transform our world. It is also the type of leadership that can be used for a local community effort, such as converting a previously paved or abandoned piece of urban real estate into a thriving ecosystem. Interestingly, many of the attributes of a transformational leader are also required for regenerative leadership.
Contemplating Regenerative Leadership
Regenerative leadership focuses on the regeneration of ecosystems and the development of human systems to work within nature (Withers, 2023), like the graphic in Figure 1, which demonstrates the evolution of regenerative design. As such, regenerative leadership calls for a worldview that sees the interconnections, interrelations, and integrated forces of the whole system that humans are part of (Reed, 2007; Withers, 2023) and “that all things are alive and in the process of becoming” (Reed, 2007, p. 675). The foundational principle focuses on being in a conscious and engaged relationship with the planet, its natural laws, and the whole system’s evolution (Reed, 2007). Regenerative leadership is about the worldview, infinite vision, and goal to evolve all involved to a healthier co-existence.
Figure 1
Regenerative Design Graphic Could Also Apply to Regenerative Leadership
Note. Bill Reed used this graphic to demonstrate the trajectory of environmental design. Regenerative design envisions humans participating as a wholesome contributing part of nature (Reed, 2007), requiring a different approach to everything, including leadership. From “Shifting from ‘sustainability’ to regeneration” by B. Reed, Building Research & Information, 35(6), 674–680. https://doi.org/10.1080/09613210701475753.
In her discussion with Darcy Winslow about regenerative leadership, Rebecca Henderson acknowledged that regenerative leadership is an emergent idea (Solvable and Magnolia Moonshot 2030, 2022). This type of leadership requires an acceptance of the harm current dominant systems have perpetuated, a commitment to bringing people along and a focus on regenerating the whole system. There is also a long or infinite view; therefore, it requires empowering those involved to see the longer vision and even requires sharing leadership. Darcy Winslow observes that although there is a “moonshot” or long vision, it is not always clear how to travel the path to the vision. She offers the analogy of geese flying in a formation and how they drop back as the leader tires and new leaders take a turn. Rebecca Henderson offers practical advice to – start local, have well-defined terms and goals, give people room to fail, try it out and try it out again, and also think about what needs to be done this week while keeping an eye on the long goal. This type of leadership might seem like a great deal of effort to plant a demonstration mini forest. But is it?
Leadership Matters to Achieve the Vision
The City of Nanaimo Parks department could simply complete a local demonstration planting of a mini forest which would likely increase biodiversity and provide the many benefits of thriving ecosystems. But this misses out on an important aspect of the project. Perhaps the most crucial part is the process and the type of leadership used. Working with the community following regenerative design principles to consider the site for the forest, understand the history of the ecosystem, co-produce the appropriate species list, and find committed planters and guardians of the forest has benefits. The process will develop an interconnected biodiverse forest and community with a deeper understanding and relationship to nature. The vision is not only to transform an ecologically unproductive urban landscape but also to transform the people involved in the project. The pilot demonstration forest is a seed planted that, if nurtured properly, could co-evolve into the moonshot vision of a regenerated landscape and an evolved community worldview that understands the necessity for humans to be in a reciprocal relationship with nature. Taking the first step as a transformational leader could evolve into regenrative leadership as we humans learn to participate within nature.
Vignola, R., Leclerc, G., Morales, M., & Gonzalez, J. (2017). Leadership for moving the climate change adaptation agenda from planning to action. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 26–27, 84–89. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2017.03.005
In the CALS 505 Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change class, we recently watched a video interview with Adam Lerner from Sovable (Royal Roads University, (2023). He identified three steps to lead change. The steps are diagnosing the existing state to find what is no longer needed, interrupting or stopping that which no longer serves, and creating space to innovate, which is the final step in the change process. The challenging work for many is interrupting, stopping, or letting go of that which no longer serves. It could be called the messy middle, and it needs our attention. Addressing the messy middle is the emotional work for climate leaders.
Pay Attention to the Emotions Raised During the Change Process
Attuned leaders will provide the emotional space and support for those affected by the change to gracefully let go of practices, policies or work that is not needed in the future state (Royal Roads University, 2023). Adam Lerner calls this step “hospicing,” and framing it as such ensures that sufficient care and attention are provided to this phase of the change process. This is the emotional work required to facilitate change. Leaders must be prepared to support those affected to deal with the loss, grief, and uncertainty they may feel when they abandon familiar but redundant ways of being, processes or work. It is also essential for leaders to have the emotional capacity to provide a safe emotional space for hospicing to occur.
Anticipating and going through the change process can leave people feeling confused, lost, and overwhelmed (Solvable, 2021). As a result, it is understandable that not only do people fear change they are more comfortable with the status quo (Grashow et al., 2009). If these intense emotions are not addressed, it can lead to apathy or derailment of the change process (Moss Kanter, 2012, Solvable, 2021). These reactions may be overlooked, given the leader’s focus on the vision and goals of the outcome, but they can also be planned for and managed with empathy. The emotions are not confined to one stage of the change process; therefore, hospicing will be an ongoing practice.
Practices to Support Hospicing
Some practices the leader can incorporate to support hospicing are identified in Ten Reasons People Resist Change (Moss Kanter, 2012). For example, by involving people in planning and allowing them to make choices, they will experience less loss of control. Most importantly, providing a clearly articulated step-by-step process with a timeline prevents people from feeling confused and uncertain. However, it is important also to acknowledge that there will be extra work, unanticipated problems, and some confusion throughout the process so that people are prepared for the challenge. A way to incorporate these practices could be with narrative.
Narrative can positively engage people in co-creating the future story (Withers, 2023). Sharing stories allows people to see themselves within the story and as part of the solution to the problem. Sharing stories provides an emotional connection and an opportunity to explore emotions such as fear, loss, and grief (Abbas, 2023). Stories or narratives can also be a powerful way to envision the future. An intriguing example is the City of Vancouver’s Sea2City Design Challenge which was part of the city’s values-based coastal adaptation planning.
The city used various forms of engagement to have conversations with citizens about rising sea levels, the effects it will have on the city’s shoreline and how this will impact people living, working, and playing along the coastline. One event had writers from coastal cities sharing their thoughts about sea level rise (Azpiri, 2022). Their written words were projected onto a large, publically displayed screen and were sung to the public by a youth choir. This single event incorporated vision stories to “create a shared understanding of the future” (Abbas, 2023, 2. Vision stories section, para. 2) and personal stories with individual writers sharing their emotions, expressing their concerns or fears, and providing their insights about the change. Sharing diverse perspectives about the future can help to foster empathy, develop understanding, and provide inspiration and motivation for working collectively on solutions (Abbas. 2023). These are critical elements for powering a change process.
Successful Change Requires Paying Attention to the Emotional Work
Leaders with a vision for change must also recognize the emotional journey those following will be on to arrive at the vision. Ignoring the intense emotions felt by those leaving behind that which no longer serves can undermine the successful transition to the new state. When considering climate change, that transition period will be ongoing. Recognizing that people must grapple with their feelings of loss, confusion, and grief as they adapt to the changing climate allows climate leaders to assist with those emotions. One of the powerful ways to do this is through narrative and the art and practice of sharing stories.
Withers, D. (2023, July 13). Unit 4: The resources – what we need in our toolkit [Class recording]. CALS505: Leading Change in the Context of Climate Change. Royal Roads University. https://commons.royalroads.ca/cals505/
The impact on the vulnerable is a priority often mentioned in climate action reports and plans. Climate leaders know that every tonne of greenhouse gas emitted increases the intensity, frequency, and duration of climate impacts (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2021), and thereby human suffering. There are multiple climate action frameworks from social and physical science that “identif[y] opportunities for transformative action which are effective, feasible, just and equitable” (Lee et al., 2023). Now is the time to apply them. But there has been a frustrating lack of effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, so suffering continues. What or who is holding us back from taking climate action?
Understandably, as communities mop up from disasters, awareness is growing about the need to increase climate adaptation measures (Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC), 2022). Unfortunately, increased support for adaptation has not translated into support for emissions reductions (Lavery, 2022). Therefore, without support for emissions reduction, is transformational action possible?
As it stands, incremental change has failed to do enough to reduce emissions and slow the rate of change or increase the resiliency of vulnerable communities (Eichinger, 2019, Uitto, 2022). Transformative adaptation is a way to deal with the multiple crises communities face (Fedele, 2019). It is a way to restore ecological systems while reducing the underlying causes of vulnerability to create resilient and sustainable communities (Fedele et al., 2019). Fedele et al. point out there are many barriers to implementing transformative adaptation. Barriers include challenging ones, such as different visions of the future and actors benefiting from the status quo. To achieve transformational change that will rapidly reduce greenhouse gas emissions, stewarding the ecosystems for the benefit of ALL will require broad consensus about the problem and the solution (Eichinger, 2019, Uitto, 2022).
At this point, surveys indicate Canada is far from a broad consensus (Lavery, 2022). Canadians’ support for implementing measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions ranks near the bottom of 34 countries surveyed by Ipsos. Although “younger age groups and women were more likely to back the proposals” (Sanyam Sethi, as reported by Lavery, 2022), their support is still below the global average. Climate communications researchers similarly find that women are more concerned and “much more likely to support climate action” (Bennet et al., 2021, p. 4.).
In their report, Ipsos Public Affairs (Sethi, 2022) highlighted the need for an effective education and communication campaign to increase Canadians’ support of the climate change policies listed in Table 1. If the Canadian government implements such a campaign, who should they target to achieve a broad consensus? Based on the Ipsos poll (see Table 1) and climate communications research, men have the lowest support for climate action (Bennett et al., 2021 & Sethi, 2022). Should they be targeted?
Interestingly, men dominate the industries responsible for climate change and the political arena responsible for implementing climate policies (Nagel & Lies, 2022). Men are “captains of industry and the champions of carbon consumption” (Osborne, 2022, p. 2). If men are also doubtful or dismissive (see Table 2) and “completely unconcerned and strongly opposed to policy responses” (Maibach, 2011, p. 16), their disproportionate amount of power is of concern. Gender inequality is not just in industry but also politics. Men dominate politics and can be “motivated by powerful and wealthy interests who tend not to lobby for climate justice” (Nagel & Lies, 2022, p. 3). This is demonstrated by ‘Big Oil’ remaining undeterred and unembarrassed by the exposure of its role in climate denial. These companies continue to lobby the government and politicians intensively to minimize climate action. Oil companies’ influence has left politicians squabbling and ineffective rather than working on climate change. If the politicians cannot stand up to the mostly male ‘Big Oil’ executives, who will? Is it left to activists like Mary Heglar, who target greenwashing online “with wit and memes” (Telford, 2021, p. 1), to sway opinion?
Another aspect to consider is not just the specific gender of the actor but the predominance of masculinity embedded in political and corporate institutions, particularly those associated with the fossil fuel industry. However, even “climate scientists …tend to focus on physical science, not the human dimensions of climate change” (Masood, 2021, as cited by Nagel & Lies, 2022, p. 3). The need to engineer solutions and control nature is a predominately masculine desire leading to expensive technical solutions that prop up the status quo, such as carbon capture and storage (Nagel & Lies, 2022). Similarly, climate science modelling has made advances in understanding the physical aspects of climate change. Still, there is not a similar understanding of climate change’s impacts on “social inequalities or human physiology, psychology, and wellbeing” (Nagel & Lies, 2022, p.3).
Masculinity is also identified by social economist Julie Nelson in her essay Economics for (and by) Humans (2022) as impacting mainstream economics. She argues that mainstream economics is “profoundly gendered” (p. 271) and built around masculine characteristics such as markets, self-interest and competition and tends to reject those that are deemed feminine such as other-interest, cooperation, or qualitative analysis. Mainstream economics accepts that profit maximization is the primary goal. There is little concern for ethics which has had unfortunate effects given the economists’ knowledge is rarely questioned (Nelson, 2022). Ignoring ethics and narrowly focusing on economic objectives has contributed to rapid growth in inequality and insufficient effort to combat climate change. As an antidote, Nelson argues that “in the service of survival and flourishing” (p. 280), economists must “help people see that we are all part of a complex social economy” and can take an ‘all hands-on deck’ attitude towards addressing the world’s pressing problems”(p. 279 & 280).
To help people work toward a livable future, climate change communication research has found that it is important to provide a vision that demonstrates the benefits of a zero-emissions and biodiverse world (Bennett et al., 2021). Do men beholden to fossil fuel see themselves in this vision? Are zero emissions transportation choices or lifestyle (veganism, for example) threatening masculinity? Interestingly, researchers Brough et al. (2016) have found that sustainable behaviours and products have a “green-feminine stereotype” (p. 568). The stereotype sufficiently threatens some men’s masculinity that it prompts opposite behaviour. However, the researchers also found that “the identity signalled by a particular product or behaviour can change when a new social group identifies with it” (Berger and Rand, 2008, cited in Brough et al., 2016, p. 580). Also, “that masculine branding could be an effective strategy for altering the feminine association attached to green products and actions” (Brough et al., 2016, p. 580). This highlights a key point for climate leaders working on transformational adaptation to consider how all audiences receive messaging or engagement efforts. It is important to remember that changing people’s minds is more complicated than providing facts (McRaney, 2022).
In his book, How Minds Change (2022), author David McRaney dives into why people develop strong beliefs, and how their minds can change. He writes, “no status quo is eternal. Every system occasionally grows fragile. The key to changing a nation, or a planet is persistence” (McRaney, 2022, p. 288). He contends that anyone can “start striking at the status quo” (p. 288). Each of our efforts is part of the collective action that will inevitably flip the system. He found effective techniques such as Street Epistemology encourages people to think about their thinking process rather than challenging them on what they think or believe. Through respectful conversations, actors evaluate “the merits of their own arguments” (McRaney, 2022, p. 227). If the government wants to change the status quo, then there must be conversations with those that do not support climate action. An awareness campaign on its own will not be enough.
If transformative adaptation is going to be a climate action solution, then men who oppose climate action must be engaged. Based on David McRaney’s research, this could mean through conversations or other means to get men opposed to climate action thinking about how they think and act and its impact. Men that have already adopted a green, climate-action lifestyle are the best ones to deliver the message or demonstrate the behaviour needed for a sustainable future. “Women’s skills at negotiation and insights into the human dimensions of climate change” (Nagel & Lies, 2022, p. 4) are well suited for leading transformative adaptation.
Brough, A. R., Wilkie, J. E. B., Ma, J., Isaac, M. S., & Gal, D. (2016). Is eco-friendly unmanly? The green-feminine stereotype and its effect on sustainable consumption. Journal of Consumer Research, 43(4), 567–582. https://doi.org/10.1093/jcr/ucw044
Fedele, G., Donatti, C. I., Harvey, C. A., Hannah, L., & Hole, D. G. (2019). Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems. Environmental Science & Policy, 101, 116–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.001
Lee, H., Calvin, K., Dasgupta, D., Krinner, G., Mukherji, A., Thorne, P., Trisos, C., Romero, J., Aldunce, P., Barrett, K., Blanco, G., Cheung, W., Connors, S., Denton, F., Diongue-Niang, A., Dodman, D., Garschagen, M., Geden, O., Hayward, B…Zommers, Z. (2023). Longer report (Subject to copyedit). In P. Arias, M. Bustamante, I. Elgizouli, G. Flato, M. Howden, C. Mendez, J. Pereira, R. Pichs-Madruga, S. Rose, Y. Saheb, R. Sanchez, D. Urge-Vorsatz, C. Xiao & N. Yassaa (Eds.), Synthesis report of the IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6). https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/syr/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_SYR_LongerReport.pdf
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Summary for policymakers. In V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (Eds.), Climate change 2021: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (pp. 3−32). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
Osborne, N. (2015). Intersectionality and kyriarchy: A framework for approaching power and social justice in planning and climate change adaptation. Planning Theory, 14(2), 130–151. https://doi.org/10.1177/1473095213516443
Uitto, J. I. (2022). Transformational Change for People and the Planet: Evaluating Environment and Development – Introduction. In J. I. Uitto & G. Batra (Eds.), Transformational Change for People and the Planet: Evaluating Environment and Development (pp. 1–13). Springer International Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-78853-7_1
Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. (2023). Global Warming’s Six Americas. Retrieved 18 June 2023, from https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/about/projects/global-warmings-six-americas/.
As climate change impacts are now affecting most communities, there is an urgency to find adaptation strategies that are appropriate for the long term (Fedele et al., 2019). Solutions that only address immediate problems or are incremental solutions may quickly become redundant or ineffective as climate changes. Also, the fundamental causes of vulnerability might be overlooked with incremental strategies. Transformative adaptation is a way to “navigate shifts driven by climate change [and] increase the efficiency and sustainability of climate solutions” (Fedele et al., 2019, p. 116). However, incremental adaptation has been the status quo as it is easier to incorporate within existing decision-making structures (Pelling, 2015). As the urgency to adapt increases, is there a role for transformative adaptation for a municipality facing sea level rise?
Having just completed a climate adaptation business case for a community grappling with sea level rise, I believe the preferred recommendation based on a multi-criteria analysis could be a transformational adaptation strategy. Of note, improving ecology and supporting culture was the highest-ranked criterion by city staff. The city is trying to protect a paved road along a several-kilometre stretch of picturesque barrier beach. The road provides access to the beach and is used as a commuter route. It is scenic and convenient for people to skirt the town’s congestion via the ocean-side road.
Unfortunately, the road is already being damaged by rising sea levels and extreme wave events. The road will fail and face increasing levels of degradation and destruction as the sea pushes up against the shoreline. City planners are trying to figure out how to protect the road and other infrastructure such as bike paths, viewing platforms and parking. Yet, due to climate change, the sea has other ideas and will be pounding the barrier beach landward as sea level rises, making it challenging to keep the built infrastructure intact.
Recommending removing the road and leaving only a gravel path, an acquiesce from the shoreline, rated highly for ecological reasons, as it provides space for biological diversity. Also, for cultural reasons, as it enhances access for First Nations to engage in cultural practises and space for non-indigenous to experience the awe of nature. However, accepting such a change is hard to imagine, given that thousands drive the road daily and the beach is a destination for many residents in the summer.
Does the city capitulate to immediate concerns and use incremental protections to stave off sea level rise and protect amenities for beachgoers, or is a different approach possible? Can perspective be changed about what is valued? By rewilding the shoreline, dunes can form, and reform and nature can adapt. Such action could also decolonize the shoreline, which is part of the recognized territorial lands of the local First Nations. Can the community accept a transformative adaptation strategy that reduces risk from rising sea levels, gives land back to nature, increases biodiversity, and supports reconciliation by providing a shoreline that supports cultural traditions? The challenging part about this strategy is the shift or change in the social mindset required to make it acceptable and getting timely alignment from the provincial and federal governments.
The community is likely not ready to move beyond “incremental adaption strategies” (Fedele et al., 2019, p.121) when they have not yet experienced severe climate impacts or had current adaptation strategies catastrophically fail. “There is a tendency for communities to prioritize immediate risks…and discount the importance of future risks (such as sea level rise in 2100) or irregular risks (a one in 200-year flood)” (Pelling, 2015, p 124). So, it could be difficult for the average citizen to visualize the impact of the rising sea and the prudence of a retreat. However, those paying attention to climate change know that coastlines will be severely affected by sea level rise (IPCC, 2022) and that incremental adaptation has “the high likelihood of not being effective in the long-term with the risk of just postponing unavoidable change” (Colloff et al., 2017 as cited in Fedele et al., 2019, p. 122). This foresight needs to be conveyed to the council and community to gain wisdom without having the road first destroyed by sea level rise. That means engagement and learning about the looming devastation of sea level rise, the biodiversity crisis, and the need for reconciliation with First Nations.
An example of a community-wide engagement and conversation about sea level rise is the Sea2City Design Challenge, which engaged with citizens in artful and creative ways (City of Vancouver, n.d.). Engagement needs to help people to develop the capacity to “make sense of complex systems in order to be able to transform” (Lonsdale, 2015, p.28). These types of processes require investment and staff capacity to orchestrate. However, if done well, they can create space for sharing, learning, and planning for initiatives or strategies (Lonsdale, 2015, p. 28). Taking this approach that strives for rich and deep understanding can seem risky as the outcome is not assured and requires honesty and courage on the part of the organization. Resource-tapped municipalities struggle to provide staff and funding for this level of engagement.
Additionally, is it possible for a municipality that is part of a colonial socio-economic structure to be able to lead a transformational adaptation strategy (Pelling et al., 2015)? The city may think it is in the process of a systems change in how it relates to Indigenous peoples, plans for climate change adaptation, and protects biodiversity, but has it reached the maturity to lead the citizens along the same trajectory? Also, are the process changes incremental and are the actions still the status quo – for example, approving shoreline developments, levelling trees for infrastructure projects, and engaging with First Nations well into the planning process rather than at the start? “Transformational adaptation requires leaders and others who are prepared to innovate and take calculated risks” (Lonsdale, 2015, p. 30), which may not be conducive to being re-elected or keeping one’s job.
Who will be the change agent or policy entrepreneur? “Who has autonomy, influence, power over decisions, and the motivation and sustained energy to make necessary changes” (Lonsdale, 2015, p. 30)? The city planner or sustainability manager will often lead the initiative and have the capacity to work across departments and engage with outside agencies and citizens. Seeking a land use partnership with the local First Nations could be a first step and part of accommodating sea level rise. Such an agreement may help to address a pressing issue for First Nations in gaining autonomy over their traditional lands and recognizing the exceptional impacts their communities face because of climate change (seen as a continuation of colonialism) (Teegee, 2020).
However, negotiating agreement with First Nations is not typically the city planner or sustainability manager’s job. Such a transitional adaptation strategy requires many actors working at various levels of government supporting the effort. As Lonsdale et al. (2015) point out, transformation must be acted across various government levels and not simply downloaded to the “local actor” or sustainability manager. Even this relatively straightforward example of moving a road before the sea destroys it requires considerable energy, engagement, partnerships, and agreements to develop a transitional adaptation strategy. Therefore, there will likely be some incremental measures taken to protect the road while a longer-term approach is developed.
Fedele, G., Donatti, C. I., Harvey, C. A., Hannah, L., & Hole, D. G. (2019). Transformative adaptation to climate change for sustainable social-ecological systems. Environmental Science & Policy, 101, 116–125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.07.001
IPCC. (2022). Summary for Policymakers. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001.
Self-interest is why most people go to work in the morning, and corporations exist. Capitalist economies are based on the principle that economic benefits are best derived when individuals or corporations act in self-interest. However, climate change is caused by greenhouse gas emissions primarily from burning fossil fuels and land changes in pursuing economic self-interest (IPCC, 2021). Conversely, a worldview that strives for the common good might avoid the problem of environmental destruction. For example, Indigenous Peoples’ cultural practices are based on respecting the environment and the planet’s inhabitants’ future well-being. Given that the climate crisis affects all of us and will require everyone to act to avert the worst outcomes (i.e., everybody working for the common good), I am doubtful that self-interest is the mechanism to achieve this.
Unfortunately, capitalistic economies based on self-interest lead to the market’s short changing social systems and the environment whenever it is expedient to do so. The problem is that the “fundamental nature of business is to maximize profits” (Nelson, 2018, p. 114) with little or minimal feedback on the damage that profit driven self-interest causes the planet. In fact, greed driven capitalists figured out early on that by accessing common resources for free and discharging waste into the environment for free, their corporations reap the benefits. Common resources are depleted in favour of self-interest as the environmental costs are shared by everyone, including later generations (Meadows, 2008). This tragedy of the commons is now costing all of us because pollution and resource extraction has caused climate change and biodiversity loss to such an extent that the stability of planetary systems are jeopardized (IPCC, 2022).
On the other hand, given the dire situation of the climate and environment, one would think that it would be in all our self-interest to act. As Julie Nelson (2018) points out, United Nations Climate Chief Christiana Figueres thought so too. Figueres reasoned that it was in countries’ national economic self-interest to support the Paris 2015 COP21 agreement. However, Nelson increased my doubts about self-interest as a driver of climate action by pointing out that self-interest leads to competition and perpetuates selfish behaviour. Selfish behaviour will not solve the global commons problem if the depletion of the commons is convenient, profitable, and socially acceptable (Meadows, 2008). Although governments are trying to change rules, set targets, and provide incentives to manage the commons, if self-interest underpins motivation, then the temptation to cheat remains (Nelson, 2018). What is needed to solve problems of the global commons are other human motivators or values such as commitment, honour, fairness, and respect (Nelson, 2018). These values can inspire people to act and do the right thing. Unfortunately, as Nelson points out, these values can be seen as feminist and, in the patriarchal capitalist system, also be marginalized. However, tremendous human efforts have been made based on higher values. Some societies are developed around higher values.
Rather than self-interest, Indigenous worldviews are based on reciprocity with nature and aim “to secure physical social and spiritual well-being of the individual, community, and the entire social order” (Kuokkanen, 2007, p. 265). I see the wisdom in such a self-sustaining system. The environment is not depleted or destroyed, and the goal is to perpetuate a thriving environment for future generations. Rather than humans being above and external to the world they live in, people feel a connection and a part of the world. This makes it harder and, in fact, foolhardy to operate from a place of self-interest.
Can the dominant economic culture change worldviews from “getting more” to “making it better”? It is difficult to know if climate change agreements, the UN sustainable development goals, global biodiversity frameworks and the declaration of rights for Indigenous Peoples will help to shift away from short-term self-interest as the goal, but I have to hope they will. These agreements and frameworks are an opportunity to appeal to higher values and to get organizations, communities, and nations to think about long-term outcomes and legacies.
As an individual working within an economic system founded on self-interest, I can use these agreements and frameworks to the planet’s advantage. The opportunity may come when I develop business cases for projects that include climate action or specifically for climate action. Typically, the business case will look at the technical solutions that could be applied to the climate change problem and provide cost-effective measures for the organization to invest in. However, there is an opportunity within the business case to include a benefit plan that is tied to the organization’s social values, research opportunities or long-term strategies (Herman & Siegelaub, 2009). I believe this is the opportunity to include consideration of environmental footprint, embodied carbon, health and well-being impacts, community benefits, greenhouse gas emissions reduction, and climate adaptation solutions. Perhaps the business plan could help to establish a goal of regeneration. In this way, although the organization may be focused on self-interest, I can use the opportunity to appeal to higher moral values of the individuals within the organization to include decisions that will improve the planet rather than degrade it. Perhaps this will start to change the corporate culture from within.
Ultimately, the transformation needed to survive climate change will not come from any organization’s or community’s action but from all of us successfully achieving climate action goals. The more collaboration, collective learning, and sharing of resources and strategies, the more likely the planet will be a habitable place for humans. Climate action is a long-term, ongoing, team, community, and national effort unlikely to be sustained by short-term self-interest. Somehow we all must aspire to higher values.
Resources
Ahlefeldt, F. (n.d.). Common Good Market Thief. Illustration. Frits Ahlefeldt Shop
Herman, B. & Siegelaub, J.M. (2009). Is this really worth the effort?The need for a business case. Paper presented at PMI® Global Congress 2009 – North America, Orlando, FL. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute. https://www.pmi.org/learning/library/need-business-case-6730
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2022). Summary for Policymakers. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001.
Kuokkanen, R. (2007). The Logic of the Gift: Reclaiming Indigenous Peoples’ Philosophies. In Botz-Bornstein, T., & Hengelbrock, J. (Eds.). Re-ethnicizing the Minds? Cultural Revival in Contemporary Thought. Brill Ropodi. (p. 251-271).
One might think that doing a climate risk assessment for “the greatest threat the world has ever faced” (Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights [OHCHR], 2022) would be a top priority for policy and decision makers. Unfortunately, adaptation planning, and implementation of strategies are not keeping up with changing climate (IPCC, 2022). That gap will widen at the current pace increasing the risk for more people. So how do practitioners get policy and decision makers to match the urgency the IPCC tells us is needed?
Having completed CALS503 Climate Risk Management, I know there are many tools, frameworks, and methods available to undertake a climate risk assessment. Some of these frameworks have been around for many years and have been honed with years of experience (for communities, built infrastructure, and ecosystems). Therefore, the how-to-do-it is available and should not be a barrier. In addition, there are also adaptation solutions that can cost effectively reduce an organization’s or community’s risk if only they would invest. Thus, the lack of solutions should not be a barrier.
Is How We Think a Barrier to Climate Action?
Perhaps a barrier is in how we think. Neuroscientist and psychologist research tells us that how we think and evaluate risk is based on intuition and that this shapes our decision to act (Roberts et al., 2021). Intuition is developed based on past experience, areas of expertise, bias, and prior knowledge. As a result, a climate practitioner needs to understand the decision makers’ areas of knowledge and expertise to frame the message accordingly. Doing so requires knowledge and interpersonal skills to communicate with the intended audience. Having these insights and skills is an essential aspect of what I think of as the art of climate action leadership.
The Art of Climate Action Leadership
At a minimum, the art of climate action leadership requires good communication skills. Those skills are applied initially to get a risk assessment process approved, secondly to bring together a diverse group of stakeholders and knowledge holders, and thirdly, to build sufficient momentum for action that will be taken on the highest priorities. Practitioners can start this process by focusing on listening, getting to know the intended audience, and understanding the primary risks the audience is already concerned about (Bennett et al., 2021; Maibach et al., 2011 & Roberts et al., 2021). With that information, the climate change practitioner can link the audience’s primary concerns to the climate risks affecting them.
Practitioners need to be aware that different audiences have different priorities. For example, Indigenous communities may not see the framing of climate risk as a top priority (Whitney et al., 2020). Solely focusing on climate risk misses context from the community’s history, the impacts of colonialism on the local environment, and the lack of self-determination and governance. Asking questions and listening first is foundational to the climate risk engagement process and will ensure the outputs are useful to end users (Roberts et al., 2021). The table below provides some questions to get the conversations started.
Questions to Start Building the Engagement Process
Note Table format adapted from ICLEI Canada (n.d.). Questions adapted from 1 Roberts et al., 2021, p. 13 & 14 and 2 ICLEI Canada, n.d., p. 19.
Benefits of the Engagement Process
Answers to the questions in the above table can be used to build the engagement process. When considering the process, Tuhiwai Smith, in Decolonizing Methodologies (2012), points out that the process is more important than the outcome because of the potential for healing and education that people involved undergo. Similarly, a climate risk assessment process can be used to build trust, especially when it involves diverse perspectives (Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment [CCME], 2021). Such a process can also build momentum for the adaptation phase and lead to long-term success.
An involved initial engagement process may be at odds with the urgency climate change practitioners feel to generate action. Planning the engagement process will help the practitioner determine where and when the effort should be made. Completing preliminary research or a desktop assessment with existing information can provide the practitioner with an understanding of local climate impacts and what organizations or similar communities are doing to address the risk (ICLEI Canada, n.d.). With that information in hand, the practitioner can look for win-win options that achieve the objectives of concerns facing the community or organization while addressing climate change risk. This win-win approach to climate risk assessment can create the desired support and build the most momentum. Additionally, another benefit of an involved engagement process is the exposure to climate risks that participants will go through as part of the process.
Talk About Local Climate Change Trends and Impacts
Increasing exposure to regional climate information and trends can help shift intuitive risk perception for decision makers (ICLEI Canada, n.d., & Roberts et al., 2021). Practitioners should have decision makers consider what climate impacts have already occurred and what trends they have noticed. Most people will have a story to tell. By listening to those stories, telling the stories of what others are doing and reiterating the scientific consensus, practitioners help decision makers connect climate change risk to their area of influence and ease doubt (Bennett et al., 2021 & Lewandowsky, 2021). In addition, practitioners can frame trends as “too much rain” or “too much heat” to make it easier for the audience to relate to these changes as critical risks (GIZ, EURAC & UNU-EHS, 2018).
Keep It Local and Within Decision Makers’ Area of Influence
Research also tells us to keep it local in time and space, as feeling a personal sense of risk is a powerful motivator to act (Maibach et al., 2011). However, climate change practitioners often use dates such as 2030, 2050 and 2100 to discuss milestones for climate targets or climate change impacts. Since most people typically think in much shorter time frames and have many immediate problems to contend with, distant dates may not be intuited as immediate risks. This can be addressed by pointing out that some of the adaptation work needed will take time to be implemented. Also, climate impacts are already occurring and will increase in severity, duration, and frequency (IPCC, 2022). In short, we are already in a pot of boiling water, and it is time to jump out.
Have You Noticed? Climate Change is Already Happening
To get decision makers to take the jump and recognize climate change risk as a top priority, practitioners can think about decision makers’ areas of knowledge and expertise and how that is applied to their understanding of risk. Practitioners can start the process by asking good questions and listening. If decision makers prioritize health, then link to health impacts from climate change and the health benefits of implementing adaptation measures (Maibach et al., 2011). Spending time at the beginning of the process builds trust and develops relationships. Mutual understanding can foster the momentum needed to ultimately implement climate adaptation measures. Additionally, practitioners should frame the issues around local climate impacts already occurring and bridge the far-off dates so decision makers can understand that humans are already in the soup, and it is getting hot! It is time to act in our areas of influence and communicate to deliver an understanding of climate change risk.
IPCC. (2022). Summary for Policymakers. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, M. Tignor, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3–33, doi:10.1017/9781009325844.001
Maibach, E., Matthew, N.,& Weather, M., (2011). Conveying the Human Implications of Climate Change – A Climate Change Communication Primer for Public Health Professionals. Fairfax, VA: George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication.
Roberts, F., De Meyer, K. & Hubble-Rose, L. (2021). Communicating climate risk: a handbook, Climate Action Unit, University College London. London, United Kingdom. DOI: 10.14324/000.rp.10137325
Whitney, C., Frid, A., Edgar, B., Walkus, J., Siwallace, P., Siwallace, I., & Ban, N. (2020). “Like the plains people losing the buffalo”: Perceptions of climate change impacts, fisheries management, and adaptation actions by Indigenous peoples in coastal British Columbia, Canada. Ecology and Society, 25(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-12027-250433
Climate science informs us that humans have unequivocally caused global warming and details what is driving the warming (Chen et al., 2021, p. 150). For more on that, see my Climate Diagnosis Post. In addition, climate science identifies what planetary systems are changing and what climate impacts are already occurring. More importantly, these impacts can be projected into the future based on how much greenhouse gas is emitted. This gives us a window into various futures depending on our current choices. The troubling part is that in the last 50 years, there has been a rapid increase in greenhouse emissions and, correspondingly, the global surface temperature. Both have risen faster than in any other period in 2000 years (IPCC, 2021, p.8). Also, in the previous 50 years, almost all the world’s glaciers have retreated, which is unprecedented in the last 2000 years. Arctic sea ice has been at its lowest since 1850, and the global mean sea level has risen faster in the last century than any previous one for at least 3000 years. In addition, the increase in sea temperature, oxygen concentrations, and declining global ocean pH (Arias et al., 2021, p.74) all affect the ocean environment, circulation, and coastal shorelines.
Scientists assure us that human-induced climate change has affected every region of the planet with extreme weather and unprecedented climate events (IPCC, 2021, p. 8). Those impacts will increase in frequency, intensity and duration with each incremental degree of warming (IPCC, 2021, p. 18). Although this is alarming, there is more. As warming continues, multiple extreme events will happen simultaneously (IPCC, 2021, p. 25). This will be further exacerbated by the warming rate that increases the occurrence of record-shattering events such as heat waves and droughts (Fischer et al., 2021, p. 692). Figure 2 graphically shows the climate impacts and how they intensify for higher surface temperatures (Arias et al., 2021, p. 89). The warmer it gets, the worse it is and the more inhospitable to human, animal and plant life. There is no motivation to allow warming to rise beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
Figure 2
From Arias et al., 2021, p. 89.
As shown in Figure 2, global warming is currently at 1.1oC above preindustrial levels, and the climate impacts on ecosystems and humans have already been widespread, extreme and deadly. To help contextualize this, I found it helpful to think about local impacts. For example, southern Canada is warming at double the global average, with northern Canada warming even faster (Bush et al., 2022, p. 7). The three oceans surrounding Canada have been negatively affected as they warm, lose oxygen below the global average for the Pacific and become more acidic. Regional coastlines are impacted as the global mean sea level (GMSL) rises. Some will have much higher sea levels than the GMSL (Bush et al., p.30). Although precipitation is increasing, this will be from intense rainfall in the winter, while lower rainfall in the summer increases the incidence, duration and intensity of drought (Bush et al., 2022, p.8). Extreme hot temperatures will continue to increase in intensity and frequency, as will heat waves and weather extremes (Bush et al., 2022, p.9). There already is less snowpack, glaciers are rapidly receding, permafrost is thawing, and Arctic Sea ice is melting (Bush et al., 2022, p. 8 & 9). In British Columbia, we have already experienced some significant impacts from climate change, including deadly heat waves, record-breaking wildfire seasons, unprecedented drought, extreme winter storms, heavy unremitting precipitation and devastating floods (MoE, n.d.). It is difficult to imagine it getting worse, but unfortunately, that is the track we are currently on.
But a few things caught my attention as necessary for all to know when we think about climate action. Firstly, every tonne matters, each additional tonne of CO₂ emissions adds to global warming (IPCC, 2021, p. 28), and therefore, each tonne avoided matters. As CO2 is so long living in the atmosphere, our emissions today will be affecting the climate of our great-grandchildren; not a legacy any of us should be leaving, so any effort we make now will make a difference. Secondly, because CH4 has such a high warming potential and is rapidly increasing, getting that under control quickly is essential (Arias et al., 2021, p. 103). We need methane police! Finally, realizing that rapidly reducing GHGs now would make a difference within years and global temperatures would stabilize in twenty years (IPCC, 2021, p. 30) made me wonder why we would want to drag this out any longer than necessary. Getting on this now means most humans alive today will benefit from their efforts. For those that have already experienced climate impacts, that should be motivating.
Note on Citations
The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.
References
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, . . . K. Zickfeld, (2021). Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896
Bush, E., Bonsal, B., Derksen, C., Flato, G., Fyfe, J., Gillett, N., Greenan, B. J. W., James, T. S., Kirchmeier-Young, M., Mudryk, L., & Zhang, X. (2022). Canada’s changing climate report, in light of the latest global science assessment. https://doi.org/10.4095/329703
Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, P. Hope, P. Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Tréguier. (2021). Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L., Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147–286, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003.
Fischer, E. M., Sippel, S., & Knutti, R. (2021). Increasing probability of record-shattering climate extremes. Nature Climate Change, 11(8), Article 8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01092-9
IPCC. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
Before taking MACAL CALS500 Climate Science, Impacts, and Services, I had the notion that the 2015 Paris target of “limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels” (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161) would mean the world would be a different but still somewhat safe place. Striving for 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would be even better. Diving into the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report Working Group I (WGI), it is evident that allowing the global temperature to rise higher than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels will push the planetary systems to inhospitable places for many of the living beings that rely on a functioning biosphere, including humans. Unfortunately, modern humans’ extractive, consumptive lifestyle has not only threatened the climate system but has pushed biodiversity and other planetary boundaries to or beyond safe limits (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161). This is what systems thinkers like Donella Meadows call the tragedy of the commons (Meadows, 2008, p. 118).
The biosphere is the commons as it is not owned or regulated by any one entity. Humans (some more than others) have benefited enormously from extracting resources and dumping waste into the biosphere with little regard for the consequences. The tragedy comes from the lack of feedback to those responsible for the biospheres’ demise until it is too late (Meadows, 2008, p. 121). As dire as this sounds, spending time studying climate science and the WGI report, with contributions from thousands of scientists and researchers collaborating around the world, provided necessary insights. It was like being given a proper diagnosis for a long-endured ailment or essential feedback on the state of the commons. Although the diagnosis is bad news, the treatment provides better news as it leads us towards an equitable, just, safe, biodiverse and healthy path. In this blog post, I will provide some background on how humans caused climate change and how we need a vision of a very low emissions sustainable future to save ourselves.
Background on How We Caused Climate Change
Scientists have proven the cause of global warming through paleoclimate records and climate modelling (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). They have found that “[i]ncreases in well-mixed greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations since around 1750 are unequivocally caused by human activities” (IPCC, 2021, p. 4). Also, carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most significant contributor to GHGs due to its higher concentration level and long life span (centuries). It has not been at such a high concentration “in at least 2 million years” (IPCC 2021, p. 8). Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) are the next most significant contributors, with concentrations “higher than at any time in at least 800,000 years” (IPCC, 2021, p. 8). CH4 has a shorter life span (decades) in the atmosphere. Still, it has a much higher global warming potential than CO2, so it can have dramatic short-term impacts (IPCC, 2021, p. 27), which is essential to remember when looking at mitigation actions.
Unfortunately, humans have increased the release of all GHGs, but unlike CO2, “land and ocean are not substantial sinks for other [greenhouse gas emissions]”(IPCC, 2021, p. 4). This fact caught my attention as there is so much focus on CO2, yet short-lived emissions could cause problems if not reduced significantly. Unsurprisingly, given how much we rely on it, the primary source of all three of these gases is fossil fuel production, distribution, and combustion for energy, transportation, and industry (Arias, 2021, p.102). Other human activities, such as deforestation and agriculture, also release greenhouse gas emissions (Chen, 2021, p. 244). As a result, the more humans there are and the more we consume, the higher the emissions and concentrations. To date, emission levels and population have only continued to rise (NOAA, 2022, UN, 2022).
The global surface temperature has also risen (Chen, 2021, p. 211). Paleoclimate records show that over the centuries, the rise in global surface temperature has followed the same trajectory as the increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (Chen, 2021, p. 159). Greenhouse gases are so named because they trap heat within the planetary atmosphere, much like the inside of a car on a sunny day that warms up much more than the outside air. Earth’s atmosphere holds heat that would otherwise be reflected out to space. For thousands of years, the atmosphere has been finely tuned with just enough greenhouse gases to balance the heat absorbed from the sun and reflected by the planet (Forster et al.,2021, p. 1021). Figure 1 graphically shows the imbalance today and where the energy is stored, with the majority stored in the ocean.
Figure 1
Incoming and Outgoing Energy Flows and the Current Imbalance Caused by Greenhouse Gases
Note. Before human-caused greenhouse gases started accumulating in the atmosphere, the incoming energy was balanced with the outgoing energy. The atmosphere maintained a stable climate. As greenhouse gases accumulated, the energy balance has shifted, with energy now being stored in the ocean, land, ice and atmosphere. From Forster et al., 2021, p. 1021.
The finely balanced atmosphere and stable climate created a hospitable environment for a thriving biosphere (Holocene, 2022), and living beings evolved to work within the web of life through reciprocity and mutual flourishing (Kimmerer, 2013, p. 382). But that all changed with industrialization and the release of human-caused greenhouse gases. Here lies the tragedy for humans to solve. Our societies, cultures, and economies have developed around the extraction of resources and high levels of waste. It has afforded incredible technological advancements and consumptive lifestyles for those fortunate enough to create and increase wealth. Unfortunately, there is plenty of “bad news” about the damage and impacts already caused by modern-day living and what we can expect if we keep on a high emissions pathway. Please read my “Bad News” post for my reflection on the points that hit home for me. If you prefer only to know our best option for our survival, then skip to the “Better News” section for a reflection of what a very low emissions world could be.
Holding a Vision and Shifting our Mind Set
Holding a vision of a very low emissions future is what is needed. The vision, like a beacon, will guide us in our work. This will be necessary as we untangle the economic system that has led to the demise of the planet’s life-giving complex systems. We need to change the economic systems’ destructive goals, structures, and parameters that focus on unlimited growth, putting humans above all and nature as a resource for human fulfillment (Meadows, 2001, p.163). Ultimately a shift in mindset or paradigm, as system thinker Donella Meadows describes, is one of the most effective ways to change a system (2001, p. 163). Getting that shift requires clear communication about the failures of the status quo and a high-emissions pathway so that the problem is defined (Bennett et al., 2021). Included in that communication must be the vision, goals and benefits of the new low-emissions sustainable world. Looking for and talking about successful transitions and approaches help to demonstrate that this is possible. Indigenous Knowledge Keepers have much to show us in this regard. Reorienting humans’ current trajectory towards the Green Road while implementing the UN Sustainable Development Goals is a legacy we can leave for the next generations. In this way, they will know that we have done the best that we were able to, which is the ultimate act of love.
Note on Citations
The information in the IPCC reports is very dense. To aid in finding the reference for myself, instructors and readers that might want to follow up I have included page numbers.
References
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, . . . K. Zickfeld, (2021). Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896
Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, P. Hope, P. Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Tréguier. (2021). Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L., Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147–286, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003.
Forster, P., T. Storelvmo, K. Armour, W. Collins, J.-L. Dufresne, D. Frame, D.J. Lunt, T. Mauritsen, M.D. Palmer, M. Watanabe, M. Wild, & H. Zhang. (2021). The Earth’s Energy Budget, Climate Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 923–1054, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.009.
IPCC. (2021). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
Khor, N., Arimah, B., Otieno Otieno, R., van Oostrum, M., Mutinda, M., Oginga Martins, J., Godwin, A., Castan Broto, V., Chatwin, M., Dijkstra, L., Joss, S., Sharifi, A., Sverdlik, A., Simon, D., Florio, P., Freire, S., Kemper, T., Melchiorri, M., Schiavina, M., . . . Unnikrishnan, H. (2022). World Cities Report 2022 Envisaging the Future of Cities. United Nations Human Settlements Programme. https://unhabitat.org/wcr/
O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. (2016). The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016
Many British Columbians (BC) enjoyed the warm, extended summer this fall, but it was also strange for those of us on the west coast used to autumn rains filling the local streams. The extreme drought conditions overshadowed the warm days and, in some regions, lasted into November. Alyssa Charbonneau, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, reported that the length and severity of the drought, accompanied by unseasonably warm temperatures, was influenced by a high-pressure ridge persisting over the region (Romphf, 2022). The high-pressure ridge steered coastal rain storms up to Yukon and Alaska. As summer progressed into autumn, Level 4 drought became Level 5 drought. Level 5 drought is classified as exceptionally dry conditions and is almost sure to adversely impact society and the ecosystem (EmergencyInfoBC, 2022). This year’s drought, following last year’s extended Level 5 drought, has resulted in adverse impacts.
Some of the impacts that made the news are a state of emergency in three BC communities, salmon not able to spawn and dying when they tried, a failed wild mushroom harvest, trees and plants stressed or dying and a late-in-the-year increase in wildfires. BC Hydro also released a report about this year’s “driest and hottest extended periods on record” and the “near-record low water levels in river systems and some of BC Hydro’s smaller watersheds” (BC Hydro, 2022, p.1). This has included the watersheds with BC Hydro dams and generation on Vancouver Island, where I live. Figure 1 shows that for 23 of 52 streams monitored on Vancouver Island, the seven-day average streamflow percentiles were at drought Level 5. It is alarming for spawning salmon and the wildlife that rely on the salmon return, but it also raises concerns about electrical generation capacity at the dam sites.
Are these negative impacts related to climate change? Climate change is top of mind, considering the intensity and duration of the drought and the shift in the season. Fortunately, climate science can help us understand why these droughts and other unprecedented extreme climatic events are occurring with more frequency intensity and lasting longer.
Figure 1
Map of 7-Day Average Streamflow Vancouver Island – October 27, 2022
Climate science has found without a doubt that human-produced greenhouse gases accumulating in the atmosphere are causing rapid global warming (IPCC, 2021b, p.4). Also, warming and biodiversity loss are pushing the climate and planetary systems we depend on to their limit (Chen et al., 2021, p. 161). Recognizing this immense problem, world leaders signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. They agreed to keep the average global temperature rise by the end of the century well below 2oC above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900) and make efforts to keep warming to 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels (Chen et al., 2021, p. 150). Unfortunately, seven years later, the global average temperature is 1.09oC above pre-industrial levels and rising, with the expectation of hitting 1.5oC above pre-industrial before 2050 (Arias et al. 2021, p. 41 & 42).
Therefore, there is an urgent need for action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the critical messages from climate science that pertain to decision-makers, Canadians and those of us pondering the impacts of this latest Level 5 drought are:
Every tonne matters – each additional tonne of CO₂ emissions adds to global warming (IPCC, 2021b, p. 28).
Every fraction of a degree matters – each increment or fraction degree of global warming increases the intensity and frequency of extreme events (IPCC, 2021b, p.18).
Extreme events will be unprecedented, even at 1.5oC of warming above pre-industrial levels (IPCC, 2021b, p.15).
Multiple extreme events happen simultaneously as warming continues, especially heat waves and droughts (IPCC, 2021b, p.25).
The rate of warming matters – the rate of warming increases the occurrence of extreme events (Fischer et al., 2021, p. 692), such as heat waves and droughts.
In summary, as greenhouse gas emissions increase, warming increases, which can cause multiple extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, to happen simultaneously. The faster the warming, the more record-shattering the event. In British Columbia, we are acutely aware that these events are not far off in the future but have already happened. Without substantive emissions reductions, we can expect frequent and extreme drought, heatwaves and wildfire season.
The challenge of our lifetime is to reduce our reliance on oil and gas, the primary source of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions (Arias et al., 2021, p.80). As Island Health Medical Health Officer Dr. Shannon Waters advises, “[t]he gravity of this situation necessitates a fundamental shift: We must place the well-being of our environment at the centre of all our decision-making” (Public Health Agency of Canada, 2022, p. 29). Stopping warming before reaching 2oC above pre-industrial levels is critical to avoid a climate with such hot extremes that a healthy life is not supported (Arias, 2021, p. 120). In addition, deep emissions cuts now would limit the rate of warming and exposure to unprecedented extreme events. In the meantime, until the climate is stabilized, we must also adapt and prepare for the changing climate.
To that end, the province of British Columbia completed a preliminary risk assessment in 2019. At that time, they assessed the impact of a Level 4 drought as high when it “affect[ed] two or more regions of the province and last[ed] two or more months” (BC Risk, 2019, p.40). The report noted that such a scenario could be considered extreme, with 2015 being a recent example. Unfortunately, that extreme was exceeded in 2021, with thirteen regions in BC reaching Level 4 drought for up to three months and four regions reaching Level 5 drought for up to two months (Management Branch, Ministry of Forest, 2022).
Figure 2
Drought Map of British Columbia as of October 27, 2022
Note: The brown areas represent the regions at Level 5 Drought and the red areas at Level 4. The areas comprising Vancouver Island and the lower mainland of BC (southwest portion of the map) showing Level 5 and 4 droughts are historically known for rain and a wet environment. From British Columbia Drought Info, by Management Branch, Ministry of Forests, Government of B.C, 2022. https://governmentofbc.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=838d533d8062411c820eef50b08f7ebc
The summer and fall of 2022 have also been exceptionally dry. As shown on the map in Figure 2 for 2022, the drought was not as long as 2021, but ten regions were in Level 5 drought for a month or more. This is unprecedented, extreme, and gravely concerning for communities whose watersheds are affected. To help communities adapt, the province of BC is funding a watershed security initiative that will work with Indigenous Peoples and various levels of government to collaborate on building healthy watersheds well into the future (B.C. Gov. News, 2022). In addition, the world, including BC, must grapple with its forestry practices that have decimated watersheds and impacted hydrological cycles, causing drought and flooding (Douville et al., 2021, p. 1057). Intact old-growth trees are an essential part of the hydrological cycle for the “wet” coast watersheds and must be retained and expanded (Wood, 2021, p.22). Thus, as the rains arrive, thoughts of drought cannot wash away. British Columbians must prepare for the next time, possibly as soon as next year.
Millstone River waterfall is a mere trickle rather than full and gushing with autumn rain and spawning salmon.
References
Arias, P.A., N. Bellouin, E. Coppola, R.G. Jones, G. Krinner, J. Marotzke, V. Naik, M.D. Palmer, G.-K. Plattner, J. Rogelj, M. Rojas, J. Sillmann, T. Storelvmo, P.W. Thorne, B. Trewin, K. Achuta Rao, B. Adhikary, R.P. Allan, K. Armour, . . . K. Zickfeld, (2021). Technical Summary. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 33−144, https://doi:10.1017/978100915789
Chen, D., M. Rojas, B.H. Samset, K. Cobb, A. Diongue Niang, P. Edwards, S. Emori, S.H. Faria, E. Hawkins, P. Hope, P. Huybrechts, M. Meinshausen, S.K. Mustafa, G.-K. Plattner, and A.-M. Tréguier. (2021). Framing, Context, and Methods. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L., Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R., Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 147–286, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.003.
Douville, H., K. Raghavan, J. Renwick, R.P. Allan, P.A. Arias, M. Barlow, R. Cerezo-Mota, A. Cherchi, T.Y. Gan, J. Gergis, D. Jiang, A. Khan, W. Pokam Mba, D. Rosenfeld, J. Tierney, and O. Zolina. (2021). Water Cycle Changes. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1055–1210, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.010
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IPCC. (2021a). Annex VII: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R., V. Möller, R. van Diemen, J.S. Fuglestvedt, V. Masson-Delmotte, C. Méndez, S. Semenov, A. Reisinger (eds.)]. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 2215–2256. doi:10.1017/9781009157896.022
IPCC. (2021b). Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 3−32, https://doi:10.1017/9781009157896.001
Seneviratne, S.I., X. Zhang, M. Adnan, W. Badi, C. Dereczynski, A. Di Luca, S. Ghosh, I. Iskandar, J. Kossin, S. Lewis, F. Otto, I. Pinto, M. Satoh, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, M. Wehner, and B. Zhou. (2021). Weather and Climate Extreme Events in a Changing Climate. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1513–1766, doi:10.1017/9781009157896.013.
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