The tension of competing self interests

Is self-interest enough of an incentive to drive climate action? A good place to start looking for an answer is to consider whose self-interest is served, or not served, by near term, potentially costly, climate action. Too many organizations, politicians, and individuals still perceive climate action as a threat to their self-interest. This reflects the temporal challenge of climate action which requires weighing immediate costs against perceived future benefits. This is particularly true where self-interest is tightly tied to financial gain as a prime imperative.

When the financial bottom line is the priority, sustainability reporting can become a lever used by customers, shareholders, and voters to put pressure on Corporations and Governments, to re-align climate action with current self-interest. Sustainability reporting has been one way for stakeholders to assess corporate performance in broader terms than their financial bottom line. It’s been around for years but has had limited success as a motivator to ensure corporate fiduciary duty accounts for more than financial interest.

Environment Social Governance (ESG) disclosures are the latest in this trend (Davis Polk & Wardwell, 2017) and the UN Sustainability Development Goals (SDGs) are the leading ESG framework for large companies (Huber et al., 2018). ESG disclosures are now required by many stock exchanges, regulatory bodies, and other government agencies to give visibility into how ESG risks and opportunities are being managed (Peterdy, 2023). The Government of British Columbia recently published it’s first ESG report along with credit scores with their ESG relevance noted (Province of British Columbia, 2022). An ESG framework, within a capitalist system, can find a pathway beyond the financial bottom line through the UN SDGs because the SDGs are designed to build a future for all life to thrive.

A leading feminist economist, Julie Nelson, challenges the assumption that capitalism needs to be tied to the growth imperative (Jarow, 2020). Nelson argues that capitalism can be changed from within by fixing the empty void that was created when the underlying economic theory was divorced from nature (Jarow, 2020). Nelson argues that the growth imperative underlying capitalism is simply one belief and that some of the resulting problems, such as planned obsolescence, didn’t start until the 1970’s (Jarow, 2020).  

Unfortunately, here we are now, in a society where some powerful leaders are trying hard to fight against those who are engaged in climate action, action that could start to repair the bonds between humans and nature. Self interest motivates action, not just positive climate action, which means that self interest alone is not enough. A good illustration of the failure of self-interest alone to drive climate action is shown in Figure 1. Notice the red banner asking for donations for hurricane relief efforts, followed by the Florida Government’s statement barring State Investments from Environment Social Governance (ESG) considerations.

Figure 1 Screenshot of DeSantis’ anti-ESG statement (Florida Government, 2023)

The contradiction on the page may seem glaring to some. It demonstrates the challenge of relying on self-interest as an incentive to climate action when there is a tension between the self-interest of the current self and that of the future self. In this case, the immediate and local cost pressures of repairing hurricane damage, coupled with profits from fossil fuel production, is competing against increasing global pressure for mitigation action, which is seen as a threat to their economy.

Climate projections will always come with some uncertainty, leaving room for debate about whether and when climate action is in someone’s self-interest. Using hurricanes as an example, we know that scientists are certain that atmospheric aerosols from human activity influence climate, although future projections of impacts come with degrees of uncertainty (Myhre et al., 2013). While there is evidence of increasing tropical storms since the 1970’s and that this is, in part, driven by human activity, the projections of whether very intense hurricanes will continue to increase, come with a medium to high confidence (Knutson, 2023).

In the US, the trend against ESG considerations has been taken up by multiple fossil fuel producing States, resulting in a federal bill that was vetoed by President Biden (Associated Press, 2023). As Independent Power Producers began being denied loans based on ESG considerations, they began lobbying States who then argued that considering ESG goals amounts to discrimination against fossil fuel companies (Barbaro, 2023). This also comes when record profits were being made due to the war in Ukraine. The highest return on investments, like State pension funds, would have been from investments in fossil fuels (Barbaro, 2023).  

Nelson points out that social science research has found that self interest is not the strongest motivator and that we need to be looking at the moral imperative for climate action (Nelson, 2019). Further, she argues that we need to re-establish our human-nature connection as foundational to our economy (Jarow, 2020). ESG disclosures tied to UN SDGs may be just the incentive we need to secure commitment to the moral imperative of climate action. Success will be dependent on how much weight they are given over short term profits, by customers, shareholders, and voters. If successful, it would indicate a shift from status quo capitalism and a step towards reconnecting nature and self. If this reconnection were to happen, then perhaps, self interest could be enough to incentivize climate action.

References

Associated Press. (2023, Mar. 23). House GOP fails to override Biden Veto of ESG investing ban. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/politics/house-gop-fails-to-override-biden-veto-of-esg-investing-ban

Barbaro, Michael (Host). (2023, Mar. 13). What is E.S.G., and Why Are Republicans So Mad About It? [Audio podcast transcript]. New York Times. The Daily.  https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/13/podcasts/the-daily/esg-republicans-biden-veto-investing.html?showTranscript=1

Davis Polk & Wardwell. (2017, Jul. 12). ESG Reports and Ratings: What They Are, Why They Matter? Client Memorandum. https://www.davispolk.com/sites/default/files/2017-07-12_esg_reports_ratings_what_they_are_why_they_matter_0.pdf

Florida Government. (2023, Jan. 17). Governor Ron Desantis Further Prohibits Woke ESG Considerations from State Investments. https://www.flgov.com/2023/01/17/governor-ron-desantis-further-prohibits-woke-esg-considerations-from-state-investments/

Huber, Betty Moy, Comstock, Michael, Smith, Hilary, Davis Polk & Wardwell LLP, (2018, Oct. 4). UN Sustainable Development Goals—The Leading ESG Framework for Large Companies. https://corpgov.law.harvard.edu/2018/10/04/un-sustainable-development-goals-the-leading-esg-framework-for-large-companies/

Jarow, Oshan (Host). 2020, Sep. 12. Julie Nelson: What if Capitalism Isn’t the Problem? (S1 E14). [Audio podcast episode]. Musing Mind Podcast. https://www.musingmind.org/podcasts/julie-nelson

Knutson, Tom. (2023, Apr. 11). Global Warming and Hurricanes: An overview of current research results. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

Myhre, G., Myhre, C. E.L., Samset, B. H. & Storelvmo, T. (2013) Aerosols and their Relation to Global Climate and Climate Sensitivity. Nature Education Knowledge 4(5):7. https://www.nature.com/scitable/knowledge/library/aerosols-and-their-relation-to-global-climate-102215345/

Nelson, J.A. (2019). Chapter 6: Climate change and economic self-interest. In Kanbur, R., & Shue, H. (Eds.). Climate justice:  Integrating economics and philosophy.  Oxford University Press.  (pp. 113- 122)

Peterdy, Kyle. (2023, Jan. 11). What is ESG Disclosure. Corporate Finance Institute. https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/esg/esg-disclosure/

Province of British Columbia, Ministry of Finance. (2022). B.C. Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Summary Report. https://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/british-columbians-our-governments/government-finances/debt-management/bc-esg-report.pdf

Confronting climate risk through story and technology

At the start of the Climate Risk Management course I was re-immersed in researching  Indigenous perspectives and reminded of the guiding principal of Two-Eyed Seeing developed by Mi’kmaq Elder, Albert Marshal, to bridge Indigenous and western ways of knowing (Bartlett et al., 2012). In previous courses I had learned of the value of storytelling as integral to Indigenous ways of knowing. In this course, I found myself embracing the power of story, while reaching beyond, to understand how the Two-Eyed Seeing principle would be applied when working across western science and Indigenous Knowledge Systems (IKS).

To get started in risk assessment work, I needed a deeper understanding of resilience. The ICLEI framework used across many Canadian Municipalities, was a good place to start as I  considered community resilience from a disaster management perspective. The Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Green Protocol, provided additional value to consider critical infrastructure resilience from an Engineering-ecosystem perspective (2022). However, when I went deeper, considering the dynamic and interconnectedness of the social-ecological systems, I didn’t find a polished practitioner’s guideline. I did find an academic framework (Frazier et al., 2014) and a critique (Jozaei et al., 2022), both of which provided insights into the challenge of working with this complexity.

Considering social-ecological vulnerability requires going beyond adaptation to transformations that may be required. This is particularly true for coastal communities that are highly vulnerable to climate risks including sea level rise. These are places where vulnerabilities could require transformations such as switching from an established economic base or physically re-locating a community (Jozaei et al., 2022). This brought me back to contemplate the potential for stories to help participants visualize transformational change.

Telling good stories about climate change is not easy. The release of the IPCC AR6 synthesis report has renewed criticism of the failures of past climate science stories. For guidance, practitioners can look to guidelines from experts including Climate Outreach, De Meyer & Hubble-Rose, and Climate Access. A common thread across them is that a positive tone, and active story structure, play an important role in engaging audiences. Storytelling, framed around Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), can also help climate action practitioners employ futures thinking. Briefly, SSPs describe possible futures, based on policy decisions, and potential climate actions, that help visualize alternative futures, while also considering the tension between mitigation and adaptation challenges (Riahi et al., 2017).

Figure 1 Example of a visual story in the IPCC 2023 Synthesis Report, P.7.

An example of how SSPs can be used to tell a future story is shown in this illustration from the latest IPCC synthesis report (Figure 1). This is an effective short story about how three demographic groups could experience a hotter and different future, as they age, ranging from the lowest likely temperature in SSP1 to the highest in SSP5 (IPCC, 2023).

Setting the future within the context of SSP1: Sustainability – Taking the Green Road, can prevent a hopeful story from turning into a fantastical utopia. There is an evolving term for this type of story, protopia. This term was originally used to describe incremental improvements over time, specifically tied to the acceleration of technology (Needelman, 2023, WordBuzz, 2011). More recently, it’s being adopted and redefined by futurists and sustainability experts as a framework for telling stories that incorporate designs for positive and equitable futures (Bielskyte, 2021, Narberhause, ND, Paiss, Z, ND, Luksha et al., 2017). This evolved protopian structure is well suited for inspiring climate action, as climate change impacts will not be felt equally across communities.  

As a climate action practitioner, I need to know how to go beyond storytelling. I need to know how to work with subject matter experts to design pathways to this future. This work requires confronting the multi-parameter complexity of climate vulnerability risk analysis. I found a framework for this purpose in the Spatially Explicit Resilience Vulnerability (SERV) model (Frazier et al., 2014). SERV combines social and ecological data, in a spatially explicit manner, to support the analysis of resilience and vulnerability of social-ecological systems. However, I also found that assessments considering social-ecological resilience, although necessary, have been criticized due to their limitations stemming from the challenge of addressing the complex interrelated systems of humans and nature (Jozaei et al., 2022). At this point I found myself wondering how much complexity our human brains can effectively process.

I wondered if technology could help. Headlines touting the benefits of Artificial Intelligence (AI) are becoming common, but not as much is being said about Intelligence Augmentation (IA). While AI may seek to remove the need for the human in the task, IA seeks to enhance human ingenuity to improve decision making (IEEE,2023). IA has been used in medical analysis to identify treatment options, and similar areas that require processing immense amounts of data. In situations like these, human decision makers can become overwhelmed, fatigued, or distracted  (IEEE,2023).

Given the volume, and often incompleteness of data, along with uncertainties inherent to climate change vulnerability analysis, it’s reasonable to assume there would be value in investigating the application of IA technologies. This raised the question of whether practitioners should rush to embrace such applications or proceed with caution, given the known bias inherent in western scientific methods.

Searching for an answer, I turned to the advances being made in Indigenous led research. Here I found an Indigenous protocol and artificial intelligence position paper. The protocol was used in an experiment by a team of Indigenous and Western project members to develop a mobile app to engage Indigenous youth in learning their native language (Lewis et al., 2020). The value of using experimentation, to explore transformative futures like this, was also identified by participants in the Jozaei et al. (2020) study critical of social vulnerability assessment methods. There are few spaces where experimentation across western science and IKS is taking place. One innovative program is setting out to change this, IndigeSTEAM. This is a program that provides support and mentors for Indigenous youth across the disciplines of Science, Technology, Engineering, Arts and Math (STEAM). The Federal government is also advancing in this direction with the new Federal Indigenous Science Division led by Myrle Ballard (ECCC, 2022). Ballard is starting with the principle of two-eyed seeing, and is researching the inclusion of Indigenous Peoples as environmental stewards, in an evolution to 3 voices and 3 eyed seeing (Ballard 2022). It’s advances like these that bring me constructive hope that new imaginings of transformative futures are on the horizon.

References

Bartlett, C., Marshall, M., & Marshall, A. (2012). Two-Eyed Seeing and other lessons learned within a co-learning journey of bringing together indigenous and mainstream knowledges and ways of knowing. Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, 2(4), 331–340. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-012-0086-8

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). (2022, Oct. 18). Indigenous science. https://www.canada.ca/en/environment-climate-change/services/science-technology/indigenous-science.html

Frazier, T., Thmpson, C.M., Dezzanie, R.J. (2014). A framework for the development of the SERV model: A Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability model. Applied Geography 51 (2014) 158-172.

IndigeSTEAM. (ND). Indigenous perspectives in STEM & STEAM opening doors for all. https://www.indigesteam.ca/

ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability. (ND). Risk Assessment Process Framework. https://www.campbellriver.ca/docs/default-source/planning-building-development/risk-assessment-framework.pdf?sfvrsn=b6d36a08_0

IPCC. (2023). Synthesis Report of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). Summary for Policymakers. https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6syr/pdf/IPCC_AR6_SYR_SPM.pdf

Institute for Integrative Science and Health. (ND). Two-Eyed Seeing. http://www.integrativescience.ca/Principles/TwoEyedSeeing/

Lewis, Jason Edward, ed. 2020. Indigenous Protocol and Artificial Intelligence Position Paper. Honolulu, Hawaiʻi: The Initiative for Indigenous Futures and the Canadian Institute for Advanced Research (CIFAR). https://spectrum.library.concordia.ca/id/eprint/986506/

Luksha, P., Cubista, J., Laszlo, A., Popovich, M., Ninenko, I. (2018). Educational ecosystems for societal transformation (Global Education Futures report). GEFPress, Moscow and San Francisco. Retrieved October 30, 2018, from https://futuref.org/educationfutures

Needelman, J., (2023, Mar. 14). Forget Utopia. Ignore Dystopia. Embrace Protopia! New York Times. The Bright Side. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/14/special-series/protopia-movement.html

Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC). (2022, Nov). PIEVC Green Protocol: Integrating Ecosystem-based Adaptation into Infrastructure Climate Risk Assessments.   https://www.adaptationcommunity.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2022giz-en-pievc-green-low-res.pdf

Riahi, K., van Vuuren, D. P., Kriegler, E., Edmonds, J., O’Neill, B. C., Fujimori, S., Bauer, N., Calvin, K., Dellink, R., Fricko, O., Lutz, W., Popp, A., Cuaresma, J. C., Kc, S., Leimbach, M., Jiang, L., Kram, T., Rao, S., Emmerling, J., … Tavoni, M. (2017). The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, 153–168. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009

Smitsman, A., Laszlo, A., & Luksha, P. (2020). Evolutionary learning ecosystems for thrivable futures: crafting and curating the conditions for future-fit education. World Futures: The Journal of General Evolution, 76(4), 214–239. https://doi.org/10.1080/02604027.2020.1740075

WordBuzz: Protopia. (2011, Sep). The Futurist, 45, 2. https://www.proquest.com/magazines/wordbuzz-protopia/docview/884627225/se-2